Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) announced that she would not seek a fourth term. Shaheen, 78, joins two other Democrats from similarly light-blue states, Sens. Gary Peters (Mich.) and Tina Smith (Minn.), who already announced their retirements.
But Shaheen hits a little differently. Not only has New Hampshire been among the crumbliest pieces of the “blue wall” in the Trump era, it has a solid Republican Party. If popular former Gov. Chris Sununu decided he wanted the gig, it would make it tough for Democrats to hold. At the very least, it is going to be an expensive headache for a party already playing defense.
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Of the 35 seats — 33 regular elections and special elections in Ohio for the remainder of the term won by now-Vice President Vance and in Florida for that of now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio — most are on Republican turf. Looked at that way, Republicans have more on the line with 21 seats to defend compared to just 14 for Democrats.
But most of the Republican seats are in places where the risen Lord couldn’t win a statewide election if he was running as a Democrat.
D pickup opportunities are slim. In Maine, Collins could be in trouble if she runs again.
North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis is in a better place than Collins but faces a different kind of problem. His state has voted Republican on the presidential level every year since 2008. It’s been wobbly now and then, but it is still a red state. The main problem for Tillis is that his state party is a disaster and the Democrats there are not. He is certain to draw a primary challenge from the same wing of the North Carolina GOP that served up Mark Robinson, author of an embarrassing 2024 gubernatorial defeat. Tillis will be lucky to survive his primary, and if he does will likely face a top-drawer Democrat, like former Gov. Roy Cooper.
In Georgia, Ossoff was lucky in 2020.
Could Republicans repeat their past mistakes and put a screwball candidate up in midterms? There’s always a chance. But if Senate Majority Leader John Thune (S.D.) and the GOP can convince Gov. Brian Kemp to take the plunge, Ossoff’s luck will probably have run out.
Of course everything could change if the economy crashes and take the GOP with it.
