Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.
Are the GOP’s House Margins Too Narrow to Pass Trump’s Priorities. A number of Trump 2.0 priorities will require legislative action, especially if Courts reject executive unilateralism. Republicans have the smallest House majority since 1931. They will need Democratic votes to avert a shutdown, increase the debt ceiling and advance multiple other priorities both in the Senate and likely the House. Can Trump 2.0 realistically expect 100% GOP loyalty?
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections End the GOP Trifecta? Four of the last five Presidents saw their parties lose control of the House in their first midterms, significantly slowing Administration progress. The party holding the White House lost seats in 18 of the 20 midterms since World War II, with the average loss 25 seats (chart). Such a big loss is highly unlikely in 2026, with the GOP only defending 3 seats won by Harris in 2024, while Democrats defend 13 Trump-won seats. Further the playing field is smaller than in past years: just 39 of 435 seats are rated toss-up or lean (22 Dem-defended, 17 GOP). But Democrats only need to net +3 to regain the House, and history suggests that’s eminently doable for the party out of power.
