Abby Livingston at Puck:
The midterms are already here: In normal times, the first quarter of the off-year congressional election cycle is sleepy and sluggish. But these, obviously, are not normal times. Hakeem Jeffries and his Democratic caucus are already steeped in the fundraising and recruitment fight, and last month, House Dems raised $9.2 million—their largest haul ever in an off-year January—compared to the N.R.C.C.’s $6 million. This isn’t just because of the committee’s storied digital fundraising: Many members, including Massachusetts’ Richard Neal and New Jersey’s Frank Pallone, have been hosting fundraising dinners. A group of House progressives hosted one last night, and the Congressional Black Caucus’s
political arm will host one in early March. Along with member dues, I’m told by a senior House Democratic campaign aide that this extra push has brought in $2.8 million, or nearly a third of the January haul.
But the more pressing task for both parties is recruitment, which will lay the foundation for the next two years. As Politico’s Elena Schneider reported this week, federal workers who fell victim to DOGE cuts might become a new talent pool of House candidates. Meanwhile, the Dems are also eyeing a huge potential get: Jimmy McCain, the Marine veteran and son of the late Arizona Republican Senator John McCain, to run against David Schweikert in Arizona’s 1st congressional district. Of course, the defection of the so-called McCain Republicans has been partly credited with flipping the state to Joe Biden in 2020, and for some high-profile statewide losses—Blake Masters and Kari Lake—for the party’s right wing.
For the Republicans, the recruitment picture is murkier: A party consultant told me there’s talent in the wings, but potential candidates are waiting on two developments. The first is the fate of the shutdown/debt ceiling/tax-and-spending-cuts negotiations this spring. The second is the price of eggs, which has supplanted the price of gasoline as the leading political economic indicator in my conversations. Republicans might also have to spend some of their recruitment energy on their incumbents. I’m hearing that, for a smattering of pre-Trump Republican members, this congressional term is turning out to be even more miserable than the last one—which, of course, included the defenestration of Kevin McCarthy. My impression is that if it weren’t for their party’s micro-margin in
the House, some Republican reps would be considering resignation.
House Majority Forward, the HMP-aligned organization, will launch a national cable ad Monday that attacks Republicans for threatening Medicaid. The HMF ad acts as the initial salvo in the Medicaid messaging wars ahead of the 2026 midterms, where House Democrats have forecasted that they will focus on health care access.
The ad centers on the recently adopted House GOP budget resolution, which the narrator says “opens the door to $880 billion in Medicaid cuts.”
The spot also argues that the potential Medicaid changes are “all to fund massive tax cuts for Elon Musk and billionaires.”
Next week, House Majority Forward will run similar ads in 20 battleground districts nationwide.
In other ad news: Liberal outside group Unrig Our Economy is running two new ads targeting vulnerable Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) for supporting the House GOP budget resolution.
