Our next book is tentatively titled The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.
The smallest initial Senate battleground in history (probably) is good news for Republicans (probably).
At this early stage of the 2026 cycle, Inside Elections rates just five senators as vulnerable, including three Democrats (Georgia’s Jon Ossoff, Michigan’s Gary Peters and New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen) and two Republicans (Maine’s Susan Collins and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis).
Recent cycles have shown a strong correlation between how a state votes for president and who it sends to the Senate, putting Ossoff, Peters and Collins in electoral danger because of the 2024 results (Donald Trump won Georgia and Michigan, while Kamala Harris won Maine). Harris won New Hampshire and Trump won North Carolina, but both states remain competitive.
Everything else looks like a stretch for both parties. It’s hard to imagine Republicans winning in Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico or Oregon, while Democrats need a lot to go right to seriously compete in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio or Texas.
