Our forthcoming book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.
California is in bad shape. The wildfires are just the latest in a series of problems that threaten the reigning Democrats.
The big picture: Musk's bluster aside, Democrats acknowledge they face serious challenges in California that predate the fires — and that their supermajority in the legislature makes it difficult to blame Republicans.Crime, homelessness, illegal immigration, high prices and an intractable housing crisis helped Trump increase his vote share in 45 of California's 58 counties in 2024.In Los Angeles County — which shifted an astonishing 11 points to the right — a progressive district attorney was defeated by a former Republican who vowed to crack down on crime.
California voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure, Prop 36, to increase penalties for drug and theft crimes, and recalled Oakland's mayor and local district attorney over public safety issues.
Reality check: The main beneficiaries of California's backlash have been independents and moderate Democrats — not Republicans, and certainly not the strain of MAGA Republicans publicly agitating for a revolution.Most Californians believe climate change is contributing to the fires, even if they're unhappy with state leadership's handling of the crisis.
House Republicans' threat to condition federal aid to California, meanwhile, risks public blowback at a moment of vulnerability for Democrats.
What to watch: Republicans today are flush with billionaire cash and influence, much of it concentrated in Silicon Valley, Hollywood and other parts of California where supporting Trump is no longer taboo. Flipping the state is still a "long-term project," as pro-Trump activist Charlie Kirk put it last month — but one that could be accelerated by this type of systemic shock.
"We don't see these shifts overnight," California Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher said in a local news interview. "Texas was once a blue state, and slowly but surely it became a red state."
