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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Still Liable

Our next book will look at the 2024 campaign and the limited political impact of Trump's legal problems.

Lola Fadulu at NYT:
President-elect Donald J. Trump on Monday failed to overturn a $5 million judgment that he sexually abused the writer E. Jean Carroll in a Bergdorf Goodman dressing room in the mid-1990s and later defamed her.

Mr. Trump’s lawyers argued to a federal appeals panel that a lower court in Manhattan had erred by allowing two women to testify in the Carroll trial that he had also sexually assaulted them. The lawyers also argued that the court should not have allowed Ms. Carroll’s lawyers to play the recording of the “Access Hollywood” conversation in which Mr. Trump bragged in vulgar terms about grabbing women by the genitals.

The appeals court rejected Mr. Trump’s request for a new trial in the case, which produced the smaller of two defamation judgments against him. “Mr. Trump has not demonstrated that the district court erred in any of the challenged  rulings,” the opinion by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit said. It was unsigned but issued by a three-judge panel made up of Denny Chin and Susan Carney — appointed by President Barack Obama — as well as Myrna Pérez, appointed by President Biden.

“Both E. Jean Carroll and I are gratified by today’s decision,” Roberta Kaplan, Ms. Carroll’s lawyer, said in a statement. “We thank the Second Circuit for its careful consideration of the parties’ arguments.”

https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca2.60504/gov.uscourts.ca2.60504.176.1.pdf

 CARROLL v. TRUMP (2023) United States District Court, S.D. New York. E. Jean CARROLL, Plaintiff, v. Donald J. TRUMP, Defendant. 22-cv-10016 (LAK) Decided: July 19, 2023

The jury's unanimous verdict in Carroll II was almost entirely in favor of Ms. Carroll. The only point on which Ms. Carroll did not prevail was whether she had proved that Mr. Trump had “raped” her within the narrow, technical meaning of a particular section of the New York Penal Law – a section that provides that the label “rape” as used in criminal prosecutions in New York applies only to vaginal penetration by a penis. Forcible, unconsented-to penetration of the vagina or of other bodily orifices by fingers, other body parts, or other articles or materials is not called “rape” under the New York Penal Law. It instead is labeled “sexual abuse.”1

As is shown in the following notes, the definition of rape in the New York Penal Law is far narrower than the meaning of “rape” in common modern parlance, its definition in some dictionaries,2 in some federal and state criminal statutes,3 and elsewhere.4 The finding that Ms. Carroll failed to prove that she was “raped” within the meaning of the New York Penal Law does not mean that she failed to prove that Mr. Trump “raped” her as many people commonly understand the word “rape.” Indeed, as the evidence at trial recounted below makes clear, the jury found that Mr. Trump in fact did exactly that.

So why does this matter? It matters because Mr. Trump now contends that the jury's $2 million compensatory damages award for Ms. Carroll's sexual assault claim was excessive because the jury concluded that he had not “raped” Ms. Carroll.5 Its verdict, he says, could have been based upon no more than “groping of [Ms. Carroll's] breasts through clothing or similar conduct, which is a far cry from rape.”6 And while Mr. Trump is right that a $2 million award for such groping alone could well be regarded as excessive, that undermines rather than supports his argument. His argument is entirely unpersuasive.



Monday, December 30, 2024

L.A. County Veers RIghtward on Crime

Our next book will look at the 2024 electionDemocrats gained three House seats in California, but the state also showed its conservative streak.

Koko Nakajima and Phi Do at LAT:
A decade ago, Proposition 47 turned some nonviolent felonies into misdemeanors. At the time it was overwhelmingly approved by 90% of neighborhoods in L.A. County. This month parts of it were repealed by Prop. 36.
Eighty-seven percent of neighborhoods that previously supported the ballot initiative voted to overhaul it. Those same neighborhoods heavily supported Nathan Hochman for district attorney.
New polling analysis reveals only 14% of L.A. County voters supported former Dist. Atty. Gascón and “No” on Prop. 36.


 

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Trump, Musk, and H1B

Our next book discusses the 2024 election.  Immigration was a top issue.

 Ken Bensinger at NYT:

President-elect Donald J. Trump appeared to weigh in on Saturday on a heated debate among his supporters over the role of skilled immigrant workers in the U.S. economy, saying he had frequently used the visas for those workers and backed the program.

“I have many H-1B visas on my properties,” he told The New York Post. “I’ve been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It’s a great program.”

But his comments — which were enthusiastically embraced by the technology industry as an endorsement — may muddy the waters because Mr. Trump appears to have only sparingly used the H-1B visa program, which allows skilled workers like software engineers to work in the United States for up to three years and can be extended to six years.

Instead, he has been a frequent and longtime user of the similarly named, but starkly different, H-2B visa program, which is for unskilled workers like gardeners and housekeepers, as well as the H-2A program, which is for agricultural workers. Those visas allow a worker to remain in the country for 10 months. Federal data show Mr. Trump’s companies have received approval to employ over 1,000 workers through the two H-2 programs in the past 20 years.

The Trump transition team did not reply to multiple requests for comment seeking clarity on the type of visas the president-elect was referring to in the interview.

But it did respond to a prior query about Mr. Trump’s position on work visas by sharing the text of a speech he made in 2020 extolling the work of American citizens in building the country, noting that “Americans must never lose sight of this miraculous story.” While campaigning in 2016, Mr. Trump spoke out against the H-1B program, calling it “very bad for workers” and stating that “we should end it.”

Still, the news report on Saturday set off a wave of celebration in the tech industry and among supporters of Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, who has been an outspoken advocate of H-1B visas.

Ian Miles Cheong, a social media influencer with 1.1 million followers on X, posted, “Donald Trump backs Elon Musk on H-1B visas.

Saturday, December 28, 2024

The International Decline of the Progressive Left

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.   Our next book continues the analysis into 2024.
 
This past year showed that the progressive politics that dominated most industrialized countries over the past two decades or more is shifting to the right, fueled by working-class anxieties over the economy and immigration, and growing fatigue with issues from climate change to identity politics.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House is the most dramatic and important example—but it is far from the only one.

Across Europe, where economic growth has largely stalled, conservatives and populist right-wing parties are making unprecedented gains. Three-quarters of governments in the European Union are either led by a right-of-center party or are ruled by a coalition that includes at least one.

The shift is set to continue. Canada appears poised to kick out a deeply unpopular progressive prime minister and Germany is expected to dump its center-left government. Polls show the top two parties in Germany represent the center-right and the far-right.

...

In country after country, many working-class voters—especially those outside the biggest cities—are signaling the same thing: They mistrust the establishment—from academics to bankers to traditional politicians—and feel these elites are out of touch and don’t care about people like them.

Years of increased migration and trade, coupled with low economic growth, have led to a backlash and a rise in nationalism, where people want more of a sense of control, political analysts say. The rise of social media has exacerbated divisions and led to an upsurge in antiestablishment parties.

“It’s a broad shift that goes across countries,” said Ruy Teixeira, a lifelong Democrat who now works for the center-right American Enterprise Institute think tank. “Working-class people are just pissed off—about immigration, about all the culture war stuff, and the relatively poor economic performance that has shaped the working-class experience in the 21st century.”

Friday, December 27, 2024

Hispanics and the Prosperity Gospel

Our next book will look at the 2024 election, which had fascinating demographic features.

Michelle Boorstein at The Washington Post:

The mix of hope, drive for success and belief in a God who rewards faith, sometimes with financial accomplishments, has become dominant across the United States and Latin America, experts on Latino religion say. The belief system is sometimes called “seed faith,” “health and wealth gospel,” or “prosperity gospel.”

In the past half-century, driven by larger-than-life pastors, it has overtaken other more traditional theologies centered on God’s priority being poor and disenfranchised people, some experts said. This belief system, they said, helps explain what exit polls showed was a significant shift among Latino Christian voters to Trump, who they see as an uber-successful, strong and God-focused strive.
...
Nationally, network exit polls showed that between 2020 and 2024, Trump gained 14 points in support among Latinos, although a bare majority favored Harris, the Democratic nominee. In that same period, he gained 25 points among Latino Catholics and 18 points among Latino evangelical Protestants.
...

The prosperity gospel is rooted in American Pentecostalism and evangelical Protestantism, but experts say it’s become huge across faith in general, and especially among unaffiliated, often online spiritual influencers. Trump grew up in the church of the Rev. Norman Vincent Peale, whose book “The Power of Positive Thinking,” was a huge bestseller and is considered a classic of the prosperity gospel.

A Pew Research Center survey in 2014 found wide majorities of Protestants and Catholics in almost all of Latin America agreed that “God will grant wealth and good health to believers who have enough faith.” In the Dominican Republic — the ancestral or birth home for many in Allentown — 76 percent of Protestants agreed and 79 percent of Catholics did. The firm PRRI asked a similar question in March and found 44 percent of U.S. Latinos overall agreed, higher than any other group except African Americans. What that means politically is that wealthy candidates like Trump are seen by some as both faithful and worthy of emulation.

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Trump's Christmas Message

 Our next book will look at the 2024 election and its aftermath. Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display yesterday. 


Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Imperialism Redux

Our next book will look at the 2024 election and its aftermath.

Dave Lawler at Axios:
President-elect Trump has big plans to make America greater, in terms of square mileage.

Why it matters: Trump has been in a strikingly imperial mood since his election victory. He has floated acquiring Greenland, reclaiming the Panama Canal, annexing Canada, and potentially invading Mexico — to the intense consternation of their leaders.In each case, Trump is blending trolling, negotiation and intimidation.

He pitched statehood for Canada at least in part to needle "Governor" Justin Trudeau.
But he has doubled down in the last 48 hours (including via memes) on taking over Greenland and claiming the Panama Canal. It's unclear how exactly either would be accomplished short of an invasion.

...

State of play: Greenland's prime minister, Múte Egede, hit back at Trump on Monday: "Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our long struggle for freedom."A day earlier, Trump had labeled taking "ownership" of the world's largest island "an absolute necessity."
People involved in Trump's transition have been discussing how an acquisition or custodianship of Greenland would work, according to Reuters.

...

Meanwhile, Trump pronounced Saturday that the U.S. would "demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us" if fees for U.S. ships to transit the waterway — which the U.S. returned to Panamanian control beginning in 1977 — were not reduced.Panama President José Raúl Mulino declared in an on-camera address Sunday that Panama would not hand over a single square meter of the canal, to which Trump replied on Truth Social: "We'll see about that!"rump followed up with a picture of an American flag flying over the canal, captioned: "Welcome to the United States Canal!"

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Democratic Slippage in California

Our next book will look at the 2024 election. Democrats gained three House seats in California, but the state also showed its conservative streak.

 David Siders at Politico:

Harris this year still easily won California, beating Trump by about 20 percentage points. But that marked about a 9 percentage point shift toward Trump from 2020. Trump flipped 10 counties that had voted for Joe Biden and made gains across the map. He reduced his loss margin in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County by more than 11 percentage points. And here in Orange County, a Republican stronghold before Hillary Clinton flipped it in 2016, Trump lost, but by nearly 7 percentage points less than in 2020.
And that’s just at the presidential level. When I called Gray Davis, the former governor, he began ticking through the left’s losses across the state.

“Look at what happened in San Francisco,” he said, where the mayor, London Breed, was ousted by a moderate Democrat who blamed her for the city’s homelessness and drug problems. Or in Oakland, where the city’s mayor and progressive district attorney were both thumped in recall elections. In Los Angeles, a Republican-turned-independent ousted another progressive district attorney, George Gascón.

And then there were the ballot initiatives. A decade after Californians voted to reduce penalties for some drug and property crimes, they approved a tough-on-crime ballot initiative calling for more stringent penalties. They rejected a ballot measure that would have banned forced prison labor. They defeated a measure to raise the minimum wage, and another to expand rent control.

 



Monday, December 23, 2024

The Gaetz Report

Our next book will examine Trump's return to power.  He actually wanted to make this guy attorney general.

Sarah Ferris and Jeremy Herb, CNN:
The House Ethics Committee found evidence that former Rep. Matt Gaetz paid tens of thousands of dollars to women for sex or drugs on at least 20 occasions, including paying a 17-year-old girl for sex in 2017, according to a final draft of the panel’s report on the Florida Republican, obtained by CNN.

The committee concluded in its bombshell document that Gaetz violated Florida state laws, including the state’s statutory rape law, as the GOP-led panel chose to take the rare step of releasing a report about a former member who resigned from Congress.

“The Committee determined there is substantial evidence that Representative Gaetz violated House Rules and other standards of conduct prohibiting prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, impermissible gifts, special favors or privileges, and obstruction of Congress,” panel investigators wrote.

The panel investigated transactions Gaetz personally made, often using PayPal or Venmo, to more than a dozen women during his time in Congress, according to the report. Investigators also focused on a 2018 trip to the Bahamas – which they said “violated the House gift rule” – during which he “engaged in sexual activity” with multiple women, including one who described the trip itself as “the payment” for sex on the trip. On the same trip, he also took ecstasy, one woman on the trip told the committee.

Earlier this month, the House Ethics Committee secretly voted to release its report after initially voting against doing so. The vote to put out the report – which was opposed by panel Chairman Michael Guest, a Mississippi Republican – was the culmination of a years-long probe into allegations surrounding Gaetz. He was President-elect Donald Trump’s first pick to be attorney general but dropped out amid opposition from GOP senators and after CNN reported key details of this same ethics report.

FULL TEXT OF THE REPORT HERE.

 

Sunday, December 22, 2024

Blue Dogs

 In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.   Our 2024 book will discuss the Democratic Party's weakness among rural and working-class voters.  Some House Democrats are clear on the concept.





Saturday, December 21, 2024

A Limit to Trump's Power

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.  Our next book will discuss 2024,

Why did dozens of House Republicans feel free to defy Trump this week? His power over them depends mainly on primary voters. And those voters are unlikely to punish members for not raising the debt limit.

Of course, cutting taxes will increase the debt, but those same voters would punish Republicans who opposed tax cuts.

Catie Edmondson and Andrew Duehren at NYT:
Something unusual happened this week after President-elect Donald J. Trump ordered House Republicans to back legislation raising the debt limit: Dozens refused.

It was a rare breach by a group of Republicans who have traditionally backed Mr. Trump’s policy preferences unquestioningly and taken pains to avoid defying him.

And it laid bare a disconnect between Mr. Trump and his party that could upend their efforts next year to pass transformative tax and domestic policy legislation with the tiniest of majorities. Even as Mr. Trump has displayed a laissez-faire attitude to the federal debt and a willingness to spend freely, a number of lawmakers in his party fervently adhere to an anti-spending philosophy that regards debt as disastrous.

In this week’s spending bill fight, Mr. Trump was intent on trying to absolve himself of responsibility for dealing with the debt ceiling, which is expected to be reached sometime in January. Raising it while President Biden was still in office and Democrats still held the Senate, he apparently believed, could avoid a messy internal Republican fight over the issue next year when Mr. Trump is in the White House and his party in full control of Congress

Instead, he only accelerated that clash, which unfolded on the House floor on Thursday night when 38 Republicans refused to suspend the borrowing limit without spending cuts.

They tanked a spending plan that would have deferred the debt cap for two years, and by Friday, when Speaker Mike Johnson advanced a third proposal to avert a shutdown to the House floor, they had jettisoned the debt limit measure entirely, promising instead to deal with it next year.

...

 A New York Times analysis of votes on spending bills since 2011 found that hard-right lawmakers associated with the Freedom Caucus have voted in favor of government funding bills less than 20 percent of the time. A smaller group of ultraconservative members has almost always voted against appropriations bills — in an average of 93 percent of cases.

It was that group of lawmakers that revolted against Mr. Trump's call this week to raise the debt limit without any cuts in exchange.


Friday, December 20, 2024

Biden's Decline and Fall

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book will describe how Biden had to exit the race after his disastrous debate performance. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. 

 Annie Linskey, Rebecca Ballhaus, Emily Glazer, and Siobhan Hughes at WSJ:

Presidents always have gatekeepers. But in Biden’s case, the walls around him were higher and the controls greater, according to Democratic lawmakers, donors and aides who worked for Biden and other administrations. There were limits over who Biden spoke with, limits on what they said to him and limits around the sources of information he consumed.

Throughout his presidency, a small group of aides stuck close to Biden to assist him, especially when traveling or speaking to the public. “They body him to such a high degree,” a person who witnessed it said, adding that the “hand holding” is unlike anything other recent presidents have had.

The White House operated this way even as the president and his aides pressed forward with his re-election bid—which unraveled spectacularly after his halting performance in a June debate with Donald Trump made his mental acuity an insurmountable issue. Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him on the Democratic ticket and was decisively defeated by Trump in a shortened campaign—leaving Democrats to debate whether their chances were undercut by Biden’s refusal to yield earlier.
...

The president’s team of pollsters also had limited access to Biden, according to people familiar with the president’s polling. The key advisers have famously had the president’s ear in most past White Houses.

During the 2020 campaign, Biden had calls with John Anzalone, his pollster, during which the two had detailed conversations.

By the 2024 campaign, the pollsters weren’t talking to the president about their findings, and instead sent memos that went to top campaign staff.

Biden’s pollsters didn’t meet with him in person and saw little evidence that the president was personally getting the data that they were sending him, according to the people.

People close to the president said he relied on Mike Donilon, one of Biden’s core inner circle advisers. With a background in polling, Donilon could sift through the information and present it to the president.

Bates said that Biden stayed abreast of polling data.

But this summer, Democratic insiders became alarmed by the way Biden described his own polling, publicly characterizing the race as a tossup when polls released in the weeks after the disastrous June debate consistently showed Trump ahead. They worried he wasn’t getting an unvarnished look at his standing in the race.

Those fears intensified on July 11, when Biden’s top advisers met behind closed doors with Democratic senators, where the advisers laid out a road map for Biden’s victory. The message from the advisers was so disconnected from public polling—which showed Trump leading Biden nationally—that it left Democratic senators incredulous. It spurred Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) to speak to Biden directly, according to people familiar with the matter, hoping to pierce what the senators saw as a wall erected by Donilon to shield Biden from bad information. Donilon didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Early Authoritarian Moves

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Our next book looks at the return of Donald Trump.

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Maggie Haberman, David Enrich and Alan Feuer at The New York Times.

President-elect Donald J. Trump sued The Des Moines Register for running a poll before the election that showed him trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, escalating his threats to seek retribution against the mainstream media and his political enemies.

Mr. Trump has long said that people he claims have wronged him should be prosecuted, including President Biden and his family; Jack Smith, the special counsel who charged Mr. Trump with trying to overturn the 2020 election and mishandling classified documents; and Liz Cheney, the former representative from Wyoming who helped lead the House investigation into Mr. Trump’s efforts to cling to power in 2020.

...

Just this week, Mr. Trump’s allies in Congress moved to support his efforts to seek retribution against Ms. Cheney, a chair of the House committee that investigated the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and recommended criminal charges against Mr. Trump.

On Tuesday, a House oversight subcommittee issued a report recommending that Ms. Cheney herself face criminal investigation for some of the work she did while investigating Mr. Trump. The report accused Ms. Cheney of secretly communicating with one of the committee’s star witnesses, Cassidy Hutchinson, without Ms. Hutchinson’s lawyer knowing.

Ms. Hutchinson gave significant but disputed testimony at one of the committee’s public hearings, describing, among other things, how Mr. Trump was warned that his supporters were carrying weapons on Jan. 6 but expressed no concern because they were not a threat to him.

By recommending that Ms. Cheney be investigated — including for possibly violating the same federal obstruction count that the congresswoman recommended against Mr. Trump — the House Republicans appeared to be laying the groundwork for a potential criminal prosecution. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said that Ms. Cheney and other members of the Jan. 6 committee should face charges and jail time.

In Mr. Trump’s own telling, winning his civil legal actions isn’t always the point.

Mr. Trump, who has often attacked journalists publicly for details in news accounts that he hasn’t liked, famously lost a libel case that he brought against the writer Timothy O’Brien over Mr. O’Brien’s description of Mr. Trump’s net worth as much less than he claimed it to be.

The case played out over the span of years. But during the 2016 election, Mr. Trump told The Washington Post that it was worth it, even with the loss.

“I spent a couple of bucks on legal fees, and they spent a whole lot more,” he said of Mr. O’Brien and his book publisher. “I did it to make his life miserable, which I’m happy about.”

 

Lloyd Green at The Guardian:
Then there is ABC News. The network recently agreed to pay $15m to settle a Trump defamation suit. Last spring George Stephanopoulos, its Sunday talkshow host, repeatedly said Trump was liable for rape when a jury had actually found him liable for abuse.

But there is more to it than that. In August 2023, Trump lost his counter-claim for defamation against Carroll. Dismissing the Trump counter-claim, a judge in New York, Lewis A Kaplan, said that when Carroll repeated her allegation that Trump raped her, her words were “substantially true”. Kaplan also set out in detail why it may be said that Trump raped Carroll.

In May, Stephanopoulos said he would not be “cowed out of doing my job”. This weekend, however, he and ABC expressed collective “regret” over his choice of words. However you look at it, the network caved. With ABC having folded under pressure, expect the president-elect to be emboldened.

Trump has also filed a $10bn action against CBS for purportedly doctoring its 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris. Pending in a federal court in Texas, that lawsuit too is predicated upon alleged violation of a state consumer fraud law. Earlier this month, CBS moved to dismiss the case.

For Trump and his allies, however, overturning New York Times v Sullivan, the US supreme court’s unanimous 1964 landmark ruling on press freedoms, is the ultimate prize. In their view, public figures facing off against the press should be aided by a lower burden of proof. They should no longer be required to demonstrate “actual malice”. The fact that more than half a century has passed since the decision means little.

Justice Clarence Thomas has branded Sullivan and its progeny as “policy-driven decisions masquerading as constitutional law”. Justice Neil Gorsuch more subtly contends that the emergence of cable television, the internet, and the 24/7 news cycle warrant re-examination of the “actual malice” standard.

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Gerrymander?

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Mike Johnson blames gerrymandering for the Republicans' failure to win more seats in 2024.  In fact, their seat share matches their vote share.

 Ben Cohen at Factcheck.org:

Jonathan Cervas, assistant teaching professor in political science at Carnegie Mellon who was a nonpartisan consultant on redistricting in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New York, told us in an email that he agreed with Niven and the Brennan Center’s findings. While “the net effect of gerrymandering is difficult to gauge,” partisan redistricting “created a substantial advantage for Republicans nationwide,” making it “pretty clear that the Republicans have the advantage in terms of how the districts lines were drawn to favor a party,” he said.

Cervas, Nevin, and the Brennan Center’s report all pointed to North Carolina as an example of partisan gerrymandering affecting the 2024 election. In 2023, the state Supreme Court reversed an earlier ruling that had prevented the implementation of a Republican-drawn map in the 2022 election, with the court now concluding that they could not rule on cases concerning partisan redistricting. As a result, the Republican-controlled state legislature redistricted the state to favor their party. In what Cervas termed “textbook gerrymandering,” the Democrats lost three congressional seats in North Carolina between 2022 and 2024 under the newly drawn map, despite what he says were similar statewide Democratic vote shares in both elections.

However, Cervas also argued that the Republican advantage through gerrymandering has decreased in recent election cycles. The “Great Gerrymander of 2012,” as experts called it, created significant partisan advantages for Republicans in the aftermath of the 2010 census. But Cervas told us that shifting political control and interventions to courts and independent commissions have lessened the Republican Party’s advantage in recent election cycles. For example, Niven and Cervas both said that recent court rulings enforcing redistricting changes in Alabama and Louisiana favored Democrats over Republicans.

Alternatively, other experts used differing methodologies to quantify the effects of gerrymandering and found a smaller net effect from partisan redistricting.

In a 2023 study, Kosuke Imai, professor of government and statistics at Harvard University and the leader of the Algorithm-Assisted Redistricting Methodology Project, found — along with his team — that Republicans possess a net advantage of only two congressional seats from partisan gerrymandering.

Similar to Cervas, Imai told us in an email that partisan redistricting efforts largely favored Republicans over Democrats after the 2010 census. However, he said that “in the 2020 redistricting cycle, some states had a partisan bias toward Democrats. As a result, even though there was widespread gerrymandering in 2020, the partisan biases were mostly canceled out at the national level.”

Monday, December 16, 2024

Informal Checks and Balances: Stocks and Media

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Our next book looks at the return of Donald Trump.

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman at NYT:
When Donald J. Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday with news cameras rolling, the moment perfectly captured two of the president-elect’s biggest obsessions: the stock market and television.

Mr. Trump’s fear of falling markets and bad imagery on TV may serve as more formidable checks on some of his more aggressive policies, like mass deportations and sweeping tariffs on trade with China, than any institutional restraints he may face in Washington.

Those guardrails are not foolproof, of course: Mr. Trump has proved himself willing to shatter longstanding political and legal norms in Washington while enduring the crush of condemnation from his adversaries at home and abroad.

But more than a dozen people close to Mr. Trump say he sees the market as a barometer of his success and abhors the idea that his actions might drive down stock prices. And they say he is so obsessed with how he comes across on television that a barrage of negative coverage can make him hesitate, or even reverse course.

...

The old guardrails from his first term have rusted away. The kind of people who saw themselves as the “adults in the room” who needed to protect the country from Mr. Trump — like John F. Kelly, the former Marine general who was his longest-serving chief of staff, and former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis — will not be hired again.

 The old guardrails from his first term have rusted away. The kind of people who saw themselves as the “adults in the room” who needed to protect the country from Mr. Trump — like John F. Kelly, the former Marine general who was his longest-serving chief of staff, and former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis — will not be hired again.



Sunday, December 15, 2024

Turnout in 2024

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book -- titled TBD -- looks at the 2024 election.

G. Elliott Morris, Amina Brown and Katie Marriner at FiveThirtyEight:
Exacerbating Democrats’ vote share losses among key groups was a decline in turnout among those formerly their most fervent supporters. Cities saw a large decline in turnout in 2024. By our calculations, turnout in the most urban counties in the U.S. fell from 53 percent of the voting-age population in 2020 to just 45 percent in 2024. On the other hand, turnout was steady at 71-72 percent of the voting-age population in the most rural areas.


Turnout also seemed to drop in other counties that voted strongly for Biden in 2020, regardless of how urban they were. In Jefferson County, Mississippi, where Biden won 85 percent of the vote, turnout fell from 71 percent in 2020 to 58 percent in 2024, despite remaining high in counties that voted strongly for Trump in the last presidential election. Turnout fell by 6 points in Taos County, New Mexico — popular with both avid skiers and liberals (Biden won 76 percent of the vote there in 2020) — while rising by 7 points in Haralson County, Georgia — a rural county on the border with Alabama where Biden garnered just 13 percent in 2020. This story is repeated over and over again nationwide; turnout went up in the whitest, most rural and most Trump-friendly areas of the country, and it dropped in cities, Democratic strongholds and counties with high percentages of minorities — especially in the Southern Black Belt.

Nate Cohn, however, says that turnout was not the main reason she lost.

For one, the story doesn’t apply to the battlegrounds, where turnout was much higher. In all seven battleground states, Trump won more votes than Biden did in 2020.

More important, it is wrong to assume that the voters who stayed home would have backed Harris. Even if they had been dragged to the polls, it might not have meaningfully helped her...[In] a presidential election, turnout and persuasion often go hand in hand. The voters who may or may not show up are different from the rest of the electorate. They’re less ideological. They’re less likely to be partisans, even if they’re registered with a party. They’re less likely to have deep views on the issues. They don’t get their news from traditional media.

Throughout the race, polls found that Trump’s strength was concentrated among these voters. Many were registered Democrats or Biden voters four years ago. But they weren’t acting like Democrats in 2024. They were more concerned by pocketbook issues than democracy or abortion rights. If they decided to vote, many said they would back Trump.

 

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Republicans and the Aggregated Vote for the House

Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

In 2024, as in 2022, Republicans won the aggregated national vote for the House.  Their vote share (50.6%)  matches their seat share.  It was not always thus.  Until a few years ago, their seat share was larger than their vote share because the Democratic vote was concentrated in urban areas where Democrats won by huge margins that resulted in wasted votes.  But now more Republicans are winning by rubble-bouncing margins, mainly in rural areas.

Philip Bump at WP:
[C]ontrol of the House came down to only about 7,300 votes. If you were shaking that many hands starting at midnight, you’d be done by about 2 a.m.

This interesting little bit of trivia comes from a social media post by the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman. Republicans will enter the 119th Congress with a 220-215 seat majority. That means that, with a three-seat flip in November, Democrats would have the majority. (220 minus three is 217; 215 plus three is 218. QED.) But thanks to three districts (in Colorado, Iowa and Pennsylvania), Republicans will have control of the chamber.

I was, probably predictably, curious how this could be visualized. So I visualized it, showing the margins in House contests arranged from biggest vote-margin victory for a Democrat to the biggest for a Republican. ... There’s an interesting pattern, as you’ve likely noticed: Republican victory margins jump upward a lot more quickly than do Democratic ones. 


Friday, December 13, 2024

Slotkin v. Identity Politics

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020. Our next book will discuss the extraordinary fight between an elderly white ex-president and a younger Black/Asian woman. 

Marc Rod at Jewish Insider:
Sen.-elect Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) said Wednesday that the Democratic Party needs to abandon “identity politics” to succeed in the future, and discussed her strategy to appeal to both Jewish and Muslim voters in Michigan on a webinar with the Jewish Democratic Council of America.

“I feel very strongly that identity politics — we need to have it go the way of the dodo,” Slotkin said on the webinar. “The idea that you can say ‘this group, because of their race or religion or ethnicity, is going to do this predictable voting behavior’ is not right. Coalitions are changing. Voters are changing.”

Slotkin said that she experienced this personally on her campaign, giving an example of an event with a group of Pakistani-American doctors she assumed would be reliable voters for Vice President Kamala Harris, but were actually all voting for Trump. She said the Democratic Party has also made mistaken assumptions about Latino and African American voters.

“You’ve got to appeal to people’s core issues regardless of their historical voting patterns, and you can’t get lazy,” Slotkin said. “And I think Donald Trump was not lazy.”

She described pocketbook issues as the key question in the race, and said her campaign had tackled the issue head-on. Voters, she said, were “confused” about what Democrats’ priorities were, especially at the presidential level, following President Joe Biden’s departure from the race.

Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Immigration, Politics, and Wages

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of immigration, as will our book on the 2024 election.

David Leonhardt at NYT:
The scale of recent immigration helps explain why the issue has played a central role in American politics over the past few years.

Mayors and governors, both Democratic and Republican, have complained about the strain on local government. In Chicago and elsewhere, residents have filled public meetings to make similar criticisms. In Denver, where tens of thousands of migrants have arrived, homeless people say that shelter spots are harder to find. In Queens, residents say that an influx of street vendors has created chaos in some neighborhoods.

Some of the biggest effects have occurred in South Texas, and Mr. Trump made big electoral gains there. Eight years ago, he won less than 30 percent of the vote in a strip of six counties along the Rio Grande. This year, he won all six counties.

Elsewhere, Democrats who managed to outpace Vice President Kamala Harris and win tough congressional races — including in Arizona, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Wisconsin — frequently criticized Mr. Biden’s border policies. Polls suggest that the immigration surge was Ms. Harris’s second biggest vulnerability, after only the economy.

Voters expressed particular frustration with the high recent levels of illegal immigration. Of the roughly eight million net new migrants who entered the U.S. during the Biden presidency, about five million did so without legal authorization, according to Goldman Sachs.

Some Republican politicians, including Mr. Trump, have spread falsehoods about recent immigrants, claiming that they have caused a crime wave. In truth, immigrants have historically committed crime at lower rates than native-born Americans, and crime fell nationwide over the past few years as immigration levels spiked.

Similarly, academic research suggests that the immigrants of recent decades, who have come primarily from Asia and Latin America, are climbing the economic ladder and assimilating into American society. Their children and grandchildren have made progress at a pace similar to that of the predominantly European immigrants of the late 1800s and early 1900s.

But high levels of immigration do have downsides, including the pressure on social services and increased competition for jobs. The Congressional Budget Office has concluded that wage growth for Americans who did not attend college will be lower than it otherwise would have been for the next few years because of the recent surge. On the flip side, higher immigration can reduce the cost of services and help Americans, many with higher incomes, who do not compete for jobs with immigrants

Bernard Yaros Jr., a lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, a research firm, described the recent increases as “something that we really haven’t seen in recent memory.” Mr. Yaros said that they had “helped cool wage growth.”

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

More on State Legislative Results

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Paul Demko and Liz Crampton at Politico:
Republicans controlled 55 percent of the 7,000-plus state legislative seats going into Election Day, and they’re poised to hold almost exactly that — 55.25 percent — when legislatures gavel in next year. That’s a shift of only about 50 seats – far below the average of 195 over the past two decades, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

...


Michigan Republicans flipped four state House seats, giving them a six-seat advantage. That will empower them to hit the brakes on the policy goals of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer – widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender -- and the Democratic-controlled state Senate.

Exact control of the Minnesota House remains up in the air — the results led to an even split, with each party controlling 67 seats. But Republicans are contesting the outcomes in two races, and seemingly have plausible arguments for why the results might be challenged. Whatever happens, the disappointing results for Democrats were a further blow to Gov. Tim Walz, who enjoyed a stratospheric rise over the summer to become the (doomed) vice presidential nominee.

Republicans also made big gains in some Northeastern states. In New Hampshire, for example, they expanded majorities in both chambers, picking up two seats in the 24-member Senate and 25 seats in the chaotic 400-member House (although there were 11 vacancies heading into Election Day).

Perhaps the most surprising gains for Republicans came in deep-blue Vermont, which accounted for close to half of all GOP state legislative gains across the nation. Republicans gained 28 seats across both chambers, significantly eroding Democratic majorities and strengthening the hand of popular GOP Gov. Phil Scott, who was elected to a fifth term by a landslide margin and campaigned heavily on behalf of Republicans in the state legislature.

For Democrats, the party’s biggest victory was arguably not winning a chamber but rather holding the Pennsylvania state House — an accomplishment that speaks to the bruising night Democrats in state legislatures faced throughout the country. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will continue to do business with a divided legislature: Democrats control the House and Republicans manage the Senate.

Democrats are also celebrating picking up 14 seats in Wisconsin, thanks to new maps that give them hope they’ll be able to flip the legislature in the near future. New maps in Montana also helped Democrats gain nine seats in the state House and two seats in the state Senate, taking away Republicans’ supermajority.

And Democrats broke the GOP’s supermajority in the North Carolina state Assembly, taking away Republican power to override the governor’s vetoes. That will spare Democratic Governor-elect Josh Stein from the treatment received by his predecessor, Roy Cooper: Republicans overturned all 11 of Cooper’s vetoes in his final year in office.

Yet those modest successes were tempered by disappointments elsewhere. Before the election, Democrats were optimistic about their chances in purple states like Arizona, where Democrats believed this cycle was their best shot at flipping the Legislature in years. But Democrats ended up losing seats in both chambers in the state.

Another disappointment for Democrats was Idaho, where the party bragged about recruiting a candidate to run in every district for the first time in at least 30 years, believing they had an opportunity to bring over voters alienated by the rightward turn of the GOP. Instead, they lost seats in both chambers, and now will control just 15 out of 105 legislative seats

Monday, December 9, 2024

Uncontested Elections

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Brianna Ryan at Ballotpedia:
Sixty-five percent of more than 40,000 elections across the country on Nov. 5, 2024, were uncontested, meaning that the sole candidates on the ballot were virtually guaranteed to win each election.

In five states—Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, and Michigan—more than 75% of elections were uncontested. Iowa topped the list: of the 1,902 elections held there, 1,614 (85%) were uncontested. Conversely, the five states with the lowest uncontested rate were New Jersey (0%), New Hampshire (11%), Virginia (19%), Connecticut (23%), and Utah (26%).

The map below shows the percentage of uncontested elections by state out of the 40,646 elections we covered on Nov. 5. Of those, 26,218—or 65%—were uncontested.

Congressional and state elections made up 15% of the roughly 40,000 elections covered. Thirty-one percent of those elections were uncontested.

That leaves local elections as the largest group of elections on a given major election day and the level of government with the highest percentage of uncontested elections.

For several office types—including district and city attorneys, who prosecute crimes, and clerks and auditors, who often run elections—more than 90% of elections were uncontested.

Overall, on Nov. 5, a majority of elections were uncontested across every type of local office we covered, except those for boards of regents (46% uncontested), fire boards (46%), and school boards (45%).

Sunday, December 8, 2024

Same-Day Registration Flipped a Seat

 

Trump Wants to Jail the J6 Committee

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Our next book looks at the return of Donald Trump.

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Tommy Christopher at Mediaite:

Trump sat for an exclusive interview that aired on Sunday morning’s edition of NBC’s Meet the Press, during which Trump lashed out at the members of the committee that investigated the January 6 riot and the circumstances surrounding it. Trump has nominated staunch loyalists Pam Bondi and Kash Patel to lead the Department of Justice and the FBI, respectively.

After Trump repeatedly said they should “all go to jail,” Welker asked him “Are you going to direct” his Justice Department to move against his opponents, and even as he denied he would Trump said “they’ll have to” look into it:
KRISTEN WELKER: We’re going to —

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: For what they did –

KRISTEN WELKER: Yeah –

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: – honestly, they should go to jail.

KRISTEN WELKER: So you think Liz Cheney should go to jail?

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: For what they did –

KRISTEN WELKER: Everyone on the committee you think –

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: I think everybody –

KRISTEN WELKER: – should go to jail?

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: – on the — anybody that voted in favor –

KRISTEN WELKER: Are you going to direct your FBI director –

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: No.

KRISTEN WELKER: – and your attorney general to send them to jail?

PRES.-ELECT DONALD TRUMP: No, not at all. I think that they’ll have to look at that, but I’m not going to — I’m going to focus on drill, baby, drill.

Watch above via NBC’s Meet the Press.

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Gabbard Is Dangerous

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Our next book is about the 2024 election. The consequences of that election are coming into view.  Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick for DNI, is a clear and present danger to national security.

Tim Snyder on Tulsi Gabbard:
In June 2015, as a congresswoman from Hawai'i, Gabbard visited Syria. During her stay, she was introduced to girls who had been burned from head to toe by a regime air strike. Her reaction to the situation, according to her translator, was to try to persuade the girls that they had been injured not by Syrian forces, but by the resistance. But this was impossible. Only Syria (at the time of her visit) and Russia (beginning weeks later) were flying planes and dropping bombs.

Either Gabbard was catastrophically uninformed about the most basic elements of the theater of war she was visiting, or she was consciously spreading disinformation. Those are the two possibilities. The first is disqualifying; the second is worse.

And if she was spreading disinformation consciously, she was also doing so with a pathological ruthlessness. Anyone who would lie to the child victims of an air strike to their burned faces would lie to anyone about anything. In January 2017, she visited Syria again, this time to speak to Assad. She began thereafter to deny that his regime had used chemical weapons on its own people. That was a very big lie.

... 

As Director of National Intelligence, Gabbard would do enormous harm, unwillingly or willingly. She is not just completely unqualified for this role -- she is anti-qualified. She is just the sort of person enemies of the American republic would want in this job. This is not a hypothetical -- Gabbard is the specific person that actual enemies of the United States do want in the job. The Russian media refers to Tulsi Gabbard as a "Russian agent" and as "girlfriend," with good reason.

Gabbard is worse than unfit. Her public record is as a disinformer and apologist for mass murderers. And there is nothing on the other side of the ledger. There are no positive qualifications. (Yes, she wrote a bestselling book. It became a bestseller because she scammed her followers into donating to a PAC which bought the book in bulk.)

State Legislative Results

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Daniel Nichanian at BOLTS:

In the presidential election, the GOP fared better than in 2020 in every state. But in thousands of legislative races across the country, the results were more complicated. The GOP unquestionably had a better night than Democrats in state legislatures, but their gains were also modest and uneven.

Republicans grew their legislative ranks in 20 states, erasing Democratic majorities in two critical chambers in Michigan and Minnesota and soaring in a trio of New England states. But Democrats did the same in 11 states. They coalesced with centrist Republicans to flip the Alaska House away from GOP control, broke the GOP’s ability to override vetoes in North Carolina, and scored double-digit swings in Montana and Wisconsin.

Overall, Republicans gained 58 seats out of the roughly 6,000 races on the ballot, Bolts has determined in its third annual review of each state’s legislative elections.

In 2022, the GOP gained 20 legislative seats, a meager result that deflated their expectations for a Democratic president’s midterms. (Several cycles in the 2010s saw swings that numbered in the hundreds of seats.) Democrats then gained five seats in 2023.

These legislative results fit a broader pattern of short coattails for Trump: The GOP did not surge downballot as it did in the presidential race. The party secured full control of Congress but Democrats added a seat in the U.S. House and salvaged four U.S. Senate seats in states Trump carried. Bolts also reported that results were also mixed in state supreme court elections.

Going forward, the GOP will enjoy a trifecta—one-party control of both legislative chambers and the governorship—in 23 states, a number that did not change after last month’s elections. Democrats meanwhile will hold a trifecta in 15 states after losing one-party control in Michigan and Minnesota.