Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.
In a major victory for Democrats, first-time candidate Derek Tran defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in a hotly contested Orange County congressional race that became one of the most expensive in the country.
Tran will be the first Vietnamese American to represent a district that is home to Little Saigon and the largest population of people of Vietnamese descent outside of Vietnam.
The race was the third-to-last to be called in the country. As Orange County and Los Angeles County counted mail ballots, Steel’s margin of victory shrank to 58 votes before Tran took the lead 11 days after the election.
Tran was leading by 613 votes when Steel conceded Wednesday, and the Associated Press called the race for Tran not long after.
“Only in America can you go from refugees fleeing with nothing but the clothes on your back to becoming a member of Congress in just one generation,” Tran said in a post on X.
Tran was born in the U.S. to Vietnamese refugee parents. His father fled Vietnam after the fall of Saigon in 1975, but his boat capsized, killing his wife and children. Tran’s father returned to Vietnam, where he met and married Tran’s mother, and the couple later immigrated to the United States.
“This victory is a testament to the spirit and resilience of our community,” Tran said in a statement. “My parents came to this country to escape oppression and pursue the American Dream, and their story reflects the journey of so many here in Southern California.”
In a statement Wednesday, Steel thanked her volunteers, staff and family for their work on her campaign, saying: “Everything is God’s will and, like all journeys, this one is ending for a new one to begin.”
Steel filed paperwork Monday to seek reelection in 2026. Tran did the same Wednesday.
The 45th District was among the country’s most competitive races, critical to both parties as they battled to control the House of Representatives.
With Steel’s loss, Republicans will hold 220 seats in the House, barely above the 218-seat threshold needed to control the chamber.
Just one House seat has yet to be called: In California’s agricultural San Joaquin Valley, Democrat Adam Gray holds a slender lead over GOP Rep. John Duarte in the 13th Congressional District, but the race remains too close to call.
FWIW, current counts of House districts drawn by...
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 28, 2024
Republicans: 180
Bipartisan/ind. commissions: 116
Democrats: 75
Courts: 58
None (At Large states): 6
Bottom line: it's impressive Dems nearly flipped the House majority given 1) GOP redistricting advantage 2) Trump's win.
