Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Abortion was a big issue in the 2022 midterm. In 2024, it was complicated.
Abortion has been a topic for statewide ballot measures since the 1970s. However, in 2022, following Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, a then-record number of abortion-related measures were on the ballot, including three from campaigns that described themselves as pro-choice or pro-reproductive rights. In 2023, voters in Ohio approved Issue 1.
On November 5, voters decided on 11 abortion-related ballot measures—the most on record for a single year. Ten addressed state constitutional rights to abortion. Voters approved seven of them in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New York, and Nevada. Voters rejected three in Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota. One, in Nebraska, limited the timeframe for when an abortion can be performed.
The big picture: The president-elect, who has repeatedly taken credit for overturning federal abortion protections, has flip-flopped on the issue but insisted he would not sign a national ban into law.But with a likely trifecta at the federal level, Congress could have the means to curb access — whether it be by passing a total national ban, pushing through a ban at various weeks of pregnancy or instating legislation to limit access to medication abortion.
Voters, showing they recognize abortion as a top priority, approved measures to expand or enshrine abortion access in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and New York.
Trump also won in deep-red Missouri and Montana and the swing states of Arizona and Nevada."Clearly, voters continue to be comfortable splitting tickets, both in terms of candidates but also when it comes to abortion rights ballot measures," Kelly Baden, vice president of public policy at the Guttmacher Institute, said.
What she's saying: This seeming contradiction between supporting abortion expansions and pro-life Republicans is not a new phenomenon.Baden pointed to Mississippi's 2011 "personhood" initiative, which was soundly defeated at the same time Republicans against abortion rights won in nearly all statewide races.
State of play: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, voters in 16 states have weighed in on abortion-related constitutional amendments.Prior to this week's elections, in every state with ballot measures to expand abortion access, voters passed that expansion and it was a winning issue for Democrats in the midterms.
"One lesson is that we must better connect the dots for people that abortion is an economic issue," Baden said.
