Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses election predictions.
Trump's static support:
2016 Election Result: 46.1%
2020 Election Result: 46.8%
2024 538 Polling Avg: 46.6% https://t.co/EN2POORRPz
Polling is an inexact science (though still better than a Ouija Board). Political polls in 2020 & 2016 consistently under-estimated support for President Trump, especially in the “Rust Belt” swing states of MI, WI & PA. Have they solved the challenges this time, over-corrected (as in 2022) or once again failed to measure a mighty MAGA army? (NYTimes)
