In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.
At Axios, Jim Vande Hei and Mike Allenn offer eight immutable laws of Toss-up America.
- The 50-50 rule. Only twice since 2000 has the White House, Senate or House not flipped. Hence, constant political volatility. Move a few hundred thousand votes in three states in 2016 or 2020, and the loser would have been president.
- The popularity mirage. Democrats have won the popular vote for president in seven of the last eight elections. But they still lost the electoral vote, which decides the winner — George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. The same dynamic is often true for House and Senate races. Democrats pack themselves so tightly into big cities in big states, which is why those red and blue maps look like red seas.
- Women rule — voting. More women than men have voted in every election since 1980 — and almost always a majority for Dems. The number of U.S. women registered to vote is typically 7 million to 10 million more than the number of men, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Among young women (ages 18 to 29) in six swing states, N.Y. Times-Siena College polls in August found an astonishing 38-point advantage for Harris (67%-29%).
- Most states don't matter. Both parties see the same seven swing states for the White House. The states change a bit — but the number hardly budges. The ballgame in 2024 will be the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania + the fast-growing Sun Belt swath of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. You can boil it down to: Harris needs Pennsylvania, and Trump needs Georgia. In the past four elections, 40 states have voted for the same party.
- The Trump hump. Roughly 45% of voters are diehards who can be expected to be with him no matter what. But he also has a ceiling: He didn't break 47% in 2016 or 2020, and is unlikely to go much above that this year. That's why third parties and double-haters matter on the margins.
- The Senate is almost always in play. It all comes down to which 33 states have Senate races in a given two-year cycle. It's all about the map. And this year, Republicans have a formidable advantage: West Virginia is certain to go red after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. Democrats have to win Trump-friendly Ohio and Montana — plus the White House — for a 50-50 Senate majority, with the vice president as the tie-breaker. Candidate quality plays an outsized role: Republican Senate candidates have consistently underperformed Trump in battleground polling, giving Democrats an edge in what otherwise would be toss-ups. But Dems also face tough maps in 2026 and 2028.
- Flipping the House is easier than ever. Redistricting — and self-sorting, where conservatives and liberals literally move next to like-minded neighbors — has rendered 400 of 435 races over before they begin. Rural areas and big cities are rarely, if ever, competitive. After several changes Friday, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates only 24 House races as toss-ups, with 13 held by Republicans and 11 held by Dems — a nearly even split. Dave Wasserman, Cook's senior editor and election analyst, tells us Democrats need to win 15 of 24 toss-ups (60%) to win the majority. They won 75% of Cook's toss-ups (27/36) in 2022.
- There's no Election Day. Yes, Nov. 5 is technically Election Day. But most people voted long before. COVID "accelerated voting trends that had been building for the past decade," Doug Sosnik, a top adviser to President Clinton, wrote last year in his "10 New Rules of American Politics." Several key states — including the biggest prize of all, Pennsylvania — start early voting this month.
- Stat for the road: Dave "I've Seen Enough" Wasserman turned us onto a fascinating metric. In a House where Republicans hold the narrowest majority, just 16 districts out of 435 (4%!) voted for a different party for president than for House — toss-up America.
