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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Trump's Dark Speech

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this month At times, his crudeness and weirdness have helped him appear transgressive.  Lately, they have hurt him.

Former President Trump, in a self-described "dark speech," told a rally in Wisconsin yesterday that his opponent, Vice President Harris, is "mentally impaired" and "mentally disabled.""Joe Biden became mentally impaired," Trump said during a riff about immigration. "Kamala [mispronounces name] was born that way. [Laughter.] She was born that way. And if you think about it, only a mentally disabled person could have allowed this to happen to our country." (Video)

Why it matters: Even for Trump, it was weird, nasty and nonsensical — when he needed to be swaying "national security moms" and other undecideds, 38 days out from Election Day.Trump told the rally in Prairie du Chien (prairie of the dog): "This is a dark speech."

...

Other comments by Trump during the hour-plus remarks at the rally, which was moved inside at the last minute because of security concerns:He clarified that in addition to his plans to prosecute any 2024 election cheaters if he wins, "and if we can, we'll go back to the last one [2020], too, if we're allowed. But we're gonna prosecute people." (Video)


There's no evidence of widespread fraud during the 2020 election. And Trump continues to claim that the only way he'll lose in November is if Democrats cheat.
On Harris and the border: "She's letting in people who are going to walk into your house, break into your door and they'll do anything they want, they'll do anything they want. These people are animals. ... These are stone-cold killers. ... It's also the fact that they're taking all of our Black population's jobs and our Hispanic population's jobs." (Video ... Fact check)
On his debate performance: "All the stupid people — the anchors, back there — no, they say: "He fell into a trap' — her trap. She can't set a mental trap." (Video)

Trump DOJ

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the partiesThe state of the GOP is not good. 

 Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellioncoups, and secession.  

Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Eight years ago, Benjamin Wittes wrote:

The soft spot, the least tyrant-proof part of the government, is the U.S. Department of Justice and the larger law enforcement and regulatory apparatus of the United States government. The first reason you should fear a Donald Trump presidency is what he would do to the ordinary enforcement functions of the federal government, not the most extraordinary ones.

Alex Leary and  Sadie Gurman at WSJ:

...Trump has repeatedly signaled he could seek retribution against his perceived enemies. This has alarmed many Americans, including some former supporters who think Trump during a second term would be savvier and more determined to bend the institution to his whims. Trump has said winning in November would be his form of retribution.
Trump and his allies have been considering candidates for attorney general who share his expansive view of presidential authority and would be more willing to do the White House’s bidding. President Biden and other presidents before him have sought to portray the Justice Department as independent of politics, taking pains to avoid even the appearance of seeking favor with the nation’s top cop.

Trump wants a loyalist, people familiar with his thinking said, and he has openly expressed regret over his choices in his first term, Jeff Sessions and William Barr. Sessions stepped aside from the department’s probe of the 2016 Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, angering the president, and Barr refused to pursue Trump’s baseless claims of voter fraud in 2020.

Among those under consideration to lead the department in a second Trump term are John Ratcliffe, who served under Trump as director of national intelligence; Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri, a former state attorney general; and Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, according to people familiar with discussions. These talks have included informal musings by Trump, who has mentioned Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.

...

Moves Trump has suggested include giving political appointees at the Justice Department greater oversight of the FBI, including its traditionally independent director, shrinking the size and power of its Washington headquarters and affording more resources instead to agents in the field. Some allies have suggested reviewing all of the FBI’s investigations and terminating those they find objectionable.

People familiar with Trump’s policy goals said he would give priority to religious rights over LGBTQ protections and that he would go after what they see as a left-wing ideology that drowns out other voices on college campuses.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

VPOTUS at the Border

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of immigration .

Sahil Kapur at NBC:

Kamala Harris highlighted her tough-on-migration stance during a long-anticipated trip Friday to the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona, aiming to cover off a political vulnerability and rebut Donald Trump’s core campaign message that Democrats are soft on immigration enforcement.

"The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them, and I take that responsibility very seriously," Harris said in Douglas, Arizona, Friday evening after visiting the border.

...
Harris’ pitch completes a turnaround from 2019, when she took more left-leaning positions as a presidential candidate including by backing a call to reduce illegal border crossings to a civil — not criminal — violation and by objecting to Obama-era deportations.

On Friday, Harris highlighted a different side of herself: the tough prosecutor who took on international gangs and organized crime as the top law enforcement officer of California.

"The issue of border security is not a new issue to me. I was attorney general of a border state for two terms. I saw the violence and chaos that transnational criminal organizations cause and the heartbreak and loss from the spread of their illicit drugs," Harris said, adding that going after such gangs would be a priority if she is elected president.

Friday, September 27, 2024

The Candidates and Ukraine


Katie Rogers and Zolan Kanno-Youngs at NYT:
Vice President Kamala Harris met with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Thursday at the White House, a sign that President Biden’s administration is positioning her to take over a politically fraught diplomatic relationship if she wins the election in November.

The meeting, held shortly after Mr. Biden announced $8 billion worth of military support to the war-torn country, was Ms. Harris’s second this week with a key world leader — even as she runs a presidential campaign focused on domestic issues.

Ms. Harris, who has met with Mr. Zelensky a half-dozen times since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, said at the White House on Thursday that she would “ensure Ukraine prevails in this war,” adding that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia “could end the war tomorrow.”

Ms. Harris said that those who would have Ukraine trade territory for peace were supporting “proposals of surrender” — a dig at former President Donald J. Trump, her Republican opponent, and his skepticism of aid for Kyiv.

She added that the fight in Ukraine “matters to the people of America,” and framed the conflict as one that the American people should recognize as highly consequential.

“The most important moments in our history have come when we stood up to aggressors like Putin,” Ms. Harris said, warning that the Russian leader would not stop with Ukraine, and would possibly even look into encroaching on NATO territory, if he succeeds in his campaign.

“History is so clear in reminding us,” Ms. Harris said, “the United States cannot and should not isolate ourselves from the rest of the world. Isolation is not insulation.”

Jonathan J. Cooper at AP:

Former President Donald Trump described Ukraine in bleak and mournful terms Wednesday, referring to its people as “dead” and the country itself as “demolished,” and further raising questions about how much the former president would be willing if elected again to concede in a negotiation over the country’s future.

Trump argued Ukraine should have made concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the months before Russia’s February 2022 attack, declaring that even “the worst deal would’ve been better than what we have now.”

Trump, who has long been critical of U.S. aid to Ukraine, frequently claims that Russia never would have invaded if he was president and that he would put an end to the war if he returned to the White House. But rarely has he discussed the conflict in such detail.

His remarks, at a North Carolina event billed as an economic speech, come on the heels of a debate this month in which he pointedly refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war. On Tuesday, Trump touted the prowess of Russia and its predecessor Soviet Union, saying that wars are “what they do.”

 

Thursday, September 26, 2024

Do-Not-Much House

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Annie Karni at NYT:
Representative Chip Roy, the far-right Texas Republican and reigning king of the fervid floor speech, stood before the House last November and tore into his party.

“I want my Republican colleagues to give me one thing, one, that I can go campaign on and say we did. One!” He pressed someone — anyone! — to “come explain to me one material, meaningful, significant thing the Republican majority has done.”

It was not a helpful sound bite for his colleagues, but Mr. Roy had a point. After nearly 11 months in control, House Republicans had little to show for themselves beyond ousting their first speaker, Kevin McCarthy, and then making life miserable for his successor, Mike Johnson, who won the job only because exhausted Republicans saw him as a compromise who had yet to offend any of the party’s warring tribes.

The party’s record has not grown more productive since Mr. Roy’s eviscerating speech.

On Wednesday, Mr. Johnson was forced to once again rely on Democrats to provide the bulk of votes to pass a stopgap spending bill in order to avert a government shutdown just weeks before the 2024 election. The bill passed in a lopsided vote of 341 to 82, with the majority of Republicans supporting it.

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Not everyone was able to rattle off achievements they were proud of. Representative MarĂ­a Elvira Salazar, a vulnerable Republican from Florida, would not answer when asked what she had to tell voters back home about Republican achievements in Congress over the past two years. At first, she told a reporter to wait for her outside the House chamber to chat after votes. But then she was out of time. “I have to run to a fund-raiser,” she said, promising that a staff member would get in contact with a full answer to the question.

No answer ever came.

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Trump and GOP Committees

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses campaign finance

Melanie Zanona et al. at Punchbowl News:

Vice President Kamala Harris recently transferred $10 million to the DCCC. How much has former President Donald Trump given the NRCC? Not one red cent.

Trump also has yet to appear at a major fundraising event for the NRCC, leaving a huge, eight-figure hole in the committee’s budget. Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee hasn’t given to the House GOP’s campaign arm all cycle.

As Republicans have grown increasingly alarmed by their massive cash gap with Democrats, securing a Trump fundraising event has become a top priority for House GOP leaders.

 Senior House Republicans, including NRCC Chair Richard Hudson, have been privately lobbying Trump to speak at an NRCC event, according to multiple GOP sources. So far, they’ve had no luck.

Speaker Mike Johnson was planning to make an overture to Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month, we’re told. But that was the day an alleged attempted assassin was caught with a gun on Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla.

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

That Was Some Weird Stuff

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this month At times, his crudeness and weirdness have helped him appear transgressive.  Lately, they have hurt him Trump's rally in Indiana PA was bonkers even by Trump standards.


Harris and Hispanics

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020

But after Democrats hemorrhaged support from Latinos over the last decade, Harris is attempting to chart a path away from identity politics, including in the way she’s courting Latino voters in states like Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

In those battlegrounds, Harris campaign ads targeted at both English- and Spanish-speaking Latinos talk about the economy, high drug prices and crime. Harris, in a Spanish-language radio interview that aired earlier this week, stressed her support for stationing more immigration agents at the border and cracking down on the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.

“The Harris campaign understands what we’ve been saying about Latinos for a long time, which is that we’re not a monolith,” said Matt Tuerk, the first Latino mayor of Allentown, Pennsylvania, a predominantly Latino community that was a recent stop on the campaign’s bus tour highlighting abortion rights. “We’re all Americans, too. We have a lot of the same basic values that every American has.”

Latino strategists on both sides of the aisle said the strategy reflects the diversity of Harris’ staff, which includes campaign manager Julie ChĂ¡vez RodrĂ­guez, who is the granddaughter of the labor leader and civil rights activist Cesar ChĂ¡vez. They say it also reflects a candidate who has a first-hand understanding of what it means to be defined by others on the basis of race or gender. And then there’s the politics: Immigration is one of Democrats’ weak points, and Harris has adopted tough-on-the-border rhetoric as a counter to the immigration-focused attacks that Donald Trump has made a hallmark of his political campaigns since his first run for president in 2016.

Monday, September 23, 2024

Trump Will Try to Jail His Opponents

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the partiesThe state of the GOP is not good. 

 Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellioncoups, and secession.  

Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Peter Stone at The Guardian:

Donald Trump’s sweeping threats if he wins the presidency again to name a special prosecutor to “go after” Joe Biden and take legal action against other foes would subvert the rule of law in America and take the country towards authoritarianism, former justice department officials and scholars have warned.

Trump’s escalating legal threats have targeted “corrupt election officials” lawyers, donors and others he falsely deems out to steal November’s presidential election, and have popped up variously on his Truth Social platform, at campaign events and at an elite police group he addressed this month in North Carolina.


Trump’s menacing pledges to essentially weaponize the justice department against opponents would mark a sharp break with the Department of Justice’s mission statement, which cites as core values “independence and impartiality”.

Ex-justice officials warn that Trump’s barrage of intimidating verbal assaults is unprecedented, and suggest he would undermine longstanding traditions of justice department independence if he wins the presidency, thus badly undermining the rule of law.

“Donald Trump is making many public threats to use the legal system to punish his enemies, which seems to be anyone who opposes him,” said the former deputy attorney general Donald Ayer, who served in the George HW Bush administration. “This conduct is utterly without precedent in campaign history, threatens all of our freedoms, and violates our basic rule of law.”

 Michael Schmidt at NYT:

In an Oval Office meeting, Mr. Trump told startled aides that if Attorney General Jeff Sessions would not order the department to go after Hillary Clinton and James B. Comey, the former F.B.I. director, Mr. Trump would prosecute them himself.

Recognizing the extraordinary dangers of a president seeking not just to weaponize the criminal justice system for political ends but trying as well to assume personal control over who should be investigated and charged, the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, sought to stall.

“How about I do this?” Mr. McGahn told Mr. Trump, according to an account verified by witnesses. “I’m going to write you a memo explaining to you what the law is and how it works, and I’ll give that memo to you and you can decide what you want to do.”

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Interviews, court filings and secret White House documents shed new light on how Mr. Trump’s demands for prosecutions in the spring of 2018 ignited a behind-the-scenes push by some of his top aides to contain his impulses, protect the rule of law and insulate the White House from legal and political blowback — issues that some of them say are arguably even more acute today.

The memo that Mr. McGahn’s lawyers in the White House Counsel’s Office produced following Mr. Trump’s April 2018 tirade about prosecuting Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Comey amounted to a primer on presidential power — and the limits on it — when it comes to the justice system, according to draft copies of it.

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Through the rest of Mr. Trump’s time in office, he never let up on pressuring federal agencies to take action against his perceived enemies even as he was counseled against it by aides like Mr. McGahn and John F. Kelly, the White House chief of staff from the middle of 2017 until the beginning of 2019.


Read the Draft Memos
Excerpts from draft memos the White House Counsel’s Office prepared for President Donald J. Trump outlining the limits of his ability to prosecute rivals.


 

Sunday, September 22, 2024

The Meltable Ethnics

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.  Our next book will carry the story through 2024.

Charlie Mahtesian at Politico:
In an election likely to be decided by a razor-thin margin, across a landscape that consists of a small group of battleground states, both campaigns are leaving no rock unturned in the hunt for every vote.

The recent fixation on the Polish American vote is a prime example. As she made her case for the defense of Ukraine in the Sept. 10 presidential debate, Kamala Harris made an explicit nod to “the 800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania” who should be worried about the threat to Poland and Europe posed by Trump’s opposition to U.S. support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Trump’s campaign responded a week later by scheduling a visit to the National Shrine of Our Lady of Czestochowa, a Polish-American Catholic holy place in Doylestown, Pennsylvania, where Trump is expected to meet Sunday with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

There’s just one problem: The Polish American voting bloc both campaigns are targeting is a mirage. It’s a phantom battleground constituency that doesn’t really exist anymore.

Many Polish Americans continue to have an affinity for the old country, and take great pride in their heritage. Poland’s rich cultural traditions continue to be venerated in America. Polish fraternal organizations and other cultural institutions are still going strong. They’re just no longer a discrete voting group that is likely to be responsive to election appeals.

It’s a familiar American story.

More than a century of assimilation, intermarriage, economic success and the fraying of ties with the ancestral homeland over time have made the idea of a cohesive bloc of Polish American votes as outmoded as the idea that there is a cohesive bloc of votes from the other big white ethnic groups — English, German, Irish and Italian. Even in Chicago, once said to contain more Poles than any city outside Warsaw, the Polish American vote isn’t what it used to be.

Harris Outreach to Republicans and Middle America

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

The last night of the Democratic convention features flags, veterans, and Adam Kinzinger.

Parts of Harris's acceptance speech sounded like ... Reagan.

Steve Benen at MSNBC:

When the “Republicans for Harris” rollout began in earnest a month ago, the effort featured some fairly prominent names, including former GOP governors, members of Congress and even Republicans who served on Donald Trump’s White House team. In the days and weeks that followed, the list of Republicans backing the Democratic vice president has continued to grow.

SEE Reagan, Bush, McCain & Romney Alumni for Harris

Neal Rothschild at Axios:

At this month's debate, Harris surprised many by saying that she is a gun owner, and in an interview with Oprah this week said, "If somebody breaks into my house, they're getting shot."Even as she advocates for gun control measures, she used the comments to signal not only that she didn't support confiscating guns, but that she has a personal stake in the Second Amendment.

Zoom out: The comments follow a pattern of Harris and Walz claiming rhetorical turf that has long been held by Republicans.Harris' campaign launch video was centered around "freedom," a pervasive conservative rallying cry for resisting liberal policies on taxation, gun control and government regulation. [ALSO NOTE "THE OPPORTUNITY AGENDA," A CLOSE COUSIN TO GINGRICH'S OPPORTUNITY SOCIETY.]

Harris and Walz are using it to advocate for abortion rights and fight interventionist policies like school book bans and curriculum directives.

Tim Walz's biography — his rural Nebraska upbringing, football coaching experience and everyday dad persona — serve to build up the ticket's Middle America credentials. And his "mind your own damn business" refrain taps into a libertarian sensibility.

...

"Patriotism" was a common refrain at the DNC in August, and "USA" chants rang out from the audience throughout the week.
...

What to watch: Harris is trying to steer Democrats' fortunes amid a political realignment that has seen the party losing favor with working class communities of color and gaining ground among wealthier suburbanites.

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Harris Spending and Online Ads


Jason Lange at Reuters:
Kamala Harris' election campaign spent nearly three times as much money as her rival Donald Trump did in August, pressing the Democrat's financial advantage ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, according to financial disclosures filed on Friday.

 The two campaigns are entering the final stretch of an extremely tight presidential contest. Harris, the U.S. Vice President who launched her campaign in July when President Joe Biden ended his own re-election bid and endorsed her, disclosed to the Federal Election Commission spending of $174 million last month. Former Republican President Trump's campaign separately reported outlays of $61 million.

Shane Goldmacher and Nicholas Nehamas at NYT:
Vice President Kamala Harris outspent former President Donald J. Trump by 20 to 1 on Facebook and Instagram in the week surrounding their debate, capitalizing on the moment to plaster battleground states with ads and to hunt for new donors nationwide.

The lopsided spending — $12.2 million to $611,228 on Meta’s platforms, according to company records — was hardly an outlier. Ever since Ms. Harris entered the race, her campaign has overwhelmed the Trump operation with an avalanche of digital advertising, outspending his by tens of millions of dollars and setting off alarm among some Republicans.

Four years ago Mr. Trump, then holding the White House, drastically outspent Democrats online early in the election cycle in hopes of gaining an advantage. Now Mr. Trump, facing a cash shortfall, is making a very different bet that emphasizes the unique appeal of his online brand, the durability of a donor list built over nearly a decade and his belief in the power of television.

The difference was especially stark on screens across the most contested battlegrounds in the week surrounding the debate. In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris spent $1.3 million on Meta’s platforms, compared with $22,465 by Mr. Trump. In Michigan, she laid out $1.5 million, while he spent only $34,790.
...

Mr. Trump is also being outspent on television — but by smaller margins. Part of that spending emphasis reflects Mr. Trump’s own worldview. Mr. Trump, who starred in the network television show “The Apprentice,” has said privately that he thinks digital spending is a waste and has urged his campaign to spend more on TV, according to a person who has heard him make such remarks and insisted on anonymity to discuss his private comments.

The 78-year-old Trump hasn't gotten the word that Americans are turning away from linear TV. 

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Friday, September 20, 2024

Trump Warns Jews

Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Trump has praised Vivek Ramaswamy, done interviews with Tucker Carlson, and dined with Nick Fuentes.

Trump has previously warned Jewish voters that they should support him, or else.


Isaac Arnsdorf and Marianne LeVine at WP:
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Thursday in back-to-back speeches that he would hold Jewish voters responsible if he loses the Nov. 5 election, suggesting that they owe him their support because of his position on Israel and questioning the sanity of Jewish Democrats.

“The Jewish people would have a lot to do with a loss,” Trump said at a summit on fighting antisemitism in America. “It’s only because of the Democrat hold, or curse, on you.”

He made similar remarks later in the evening at the Israeli American Council National Summit. Both events took place in Washington, D.C.

Trump did not take questions at either event and did not address the new report that a Republican gubernatorial nominee he has personally boosted, Mark Robinson of North Carolina, once described himself as a “black Nazi” on an internet pornography forum.
...

Trump also repeatedly insisted that Vice President Kamala Harris’s election would directly result in the elimination of Israel and accused her without evidence of hating Israel or Jews. (Her husband is Jewish, as are Trump’s grandchildren by his daughter Ivanka, who converted.)

At one point, Trump appeared to use Israel and American Jews interchangeably.

“Israel, I believe, has to defeat her,” Trump said of Harris on Thursday. “More than any people on earth, Israel has to defeat her.”

Danger, Mark Robinson, Danger


Stephen Collinson at CNN:
Donald Trump risks being doomed by what he wrought in North Carolina.

An already fiercely fought presidential contest in the critical swing state was thrown into greater turmoil Thursday by a stunning CNN investigation revealing a porn-site scandal surrounding Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.

Lt. Gov. Robinson, whose politics and personality are extreme even by the standards of Trump’s MAGA movement, referred to himself as a “black NAZI!” on a pornography website’s message board more than a decade ago and expressed support for reinstating slavery, CNN’s KFile reported. Many of the remarks were lewd and gratuitously sexual in nature.
Robinson denied he made the comments, which predated his political career. But his proximity to Trump, who dubbed him “Martin Luther King on steroids” and had him on stage at a recent rally, jolted the White House race.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign swiftly highlighted the scandal’s national implications and tried to equate Trump with Robinson as it argues that the ex-president is anti-woman, immoral, extreme and unfit to serve. The campaign for instance posted photos of the two men together on social media with an emoji of Trump’s signature thumbs-up.



Thursday, September 19, 2024

The Economy, September ed.

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of economic policy.  Objective indicators are doing great. Perceptions may be catching up.

When it comes to the economy, Kamala Harris appears to have closed the "trust gap."

Why it matters: In polling throughout this election cycle, President Biden had been losing on the issue, with voters consistently saying they preferred Donald Trump on the economy.Harris seems to have shaken off some of that baggage.

The big picture: The economy is typically an important issue for voters in an election, but it's been especially significant this cycle — as the high cost of living is weighing on people's wallets.

Zoom in: 46% of voters said they trust Harris to handle the economy — the same share as former President Trump, according to a Morning Consult poll conducted in late August and released Thursday morning.A separate survey from FT-Michigan Ross, taken after the debate and released on Sunday, shows Harris with a slight edge over Trump when it comes to the economy. Voters who watched the debate were even more apt to go for Harris.

Between the lines: This isn't about voters preferring Harris over Trump so much as it is about voters preferring Harris over Biden.Her entry in the race has reshaped the way we talk about the economy in this election, says Sofia Baig, an economist at Morning Consult.
Not many folks are out there throwing around the term Bidenomics anymore.
Ben Werschkul at Yahoo Finance:
The Federal Reserve's decision to opt for a bigger half-percentage-point cut opened a new area of disagreement between GOP nominee Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

What Trump said this week is that the cuts are a sign of one thing: a weak economy that he claims was brought on by the Biden/Harris administration.

"I guess it shows the economy is very bad to cut it by that much assuming that they are not just playing politics," Trump said at a Manhattan bitcoin bar Wednesday.

"One or the other," the GOP nominee added "but it was a big cut."

Powell — who was elevated to Fed chair by then-President Trump but has found himself often at odds with him in recent years — offered an opposite analysis Wednesday afternoon.

"Our economy is strong overall," Powell told reporters, arguing the move to cut the Fed's benchmark rate by 50 basis points was instead a way to try to ensure "strength in the labor market can be maintained" alongside economic growth.

Ground Game


Sophia Cai and Torey Van Oot at Axios:
Donald Trump's campaign, lacking the on-the-ground muscle to match Kamala Harris' team, has been rolling out a strategy to target swing-state voters who've shown interest in Trump but often don't vote.

Why it matters: Trump campaign training materials obtained by Axios offer an inside look into the strategy the ex-president's team is betting on to turn out voters in Pennsylvania and at least six other key states.

The big picture: The materials describe the 2020 Trump campaign's reach-out efforts as "inefficient," and emphasize the campaign's priorities of reaching more "quality" contacts in its race to the Nov. 5 election.Trump's team is outgunned in sheer resources: The campaign says it has about 27,000 volunteers on the ground overall, while Harris' campaign claims to have 60,000 in Pennsylvania alone.
As Axios has reported, Trump's campaign has focused more on developing an "election integrity" team of 175,000 poll workers and poll watchers nationwide, a program rooted in the ex-president's false claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election was fraudulent.

Shelby Talcott at Semafor:

Turning Point Action, one of the more high profile groups involved in helping turn out the vote, has touted its efforts in the field and expressed pride in their initiatives. Founded by Charlie Kirk, it’s the political advocacy arm of Turning Point USA, a group that’s been controversial within some party circles for its flamboyant culture-war emphasis. One veteran GOP strategist described the group to Semafor as “a total grifting operation,” and others have had questions about standard metrics like the number of doors knocked and wondered how much work the group is actually doing.

One official with Turning Point Action emphasized they were not intended to lead the party’s overall efforts, but had a specific role which they said is “narrowly focused on low-propensity, disengaged Republican voters — a universe that comprises 300,000+ in Arizona and 300,000+ in Wisconsin, and then 40,000 in Michigan 7[th district] and 30,000 in Nevada’s 3rd.” According to an internal memo reported on in April, the group had a lofty goal of raising and spending over $108 million on a Chase the Vote program: They have not reached that aspirational number, Semafor was told, and can’t use funding from Turning Point USA, which is a 501(c)(3).

“I wish we had the resources to blanket Michigan and to blanket Nevada and blanket Georgia, like we’re doing [in] Arizona [and] Wisconsin,” spokesman Andrew Kolvet said in a statement. “But barring a last minute major infusion of resources we’re just simply not able to staff those regions like we’d want to.”

Hugo Lowell at The Guardian:

But the Pacs, which are supposed to bridging the gap, have been slow to spool up, according to people with direct access to the data for groups like America Pac, Turnout for America, Turning Point Action and America First Works.

They have only started to hire at a rapid clip in recent weeks, the people said, meaning they are reaching Trump supporters late in the cycle when it often takes repeated “voter contacts” to get them to return a ballot.

 

 

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Rumors, Lies, DIsformation

Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Our next book will discuss the 2024 election, including the role of lies and disinformation.

 Kris Maher, Valerie Bauerlein, Tawnell D. Hobbs at WSJ:

City Manager Bryan Heck fielded an unusual question at City Hall on the morning of Sept. 9, from a staff member of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance. The staffer called to ask if there was any truth to bizarre rumors about Haitian immigrants and pets in Springfield.

“He asked point-blank, ‘Are the rumors true of pets being taken and eaten?’” recalled Heck. “I told him no. There was no verifiable evidence or reports to show this was true. I told them these claims were baseless.”

By then, Vance had already posted about the rumors to his 1.9 million followers on X. Yet he kept the post up, and repeated an even more insistent version of the claim the next morning.

That night, former President Donald Trump stood on a Philadelphia debate stage and shot the rumor into the stratosphere. “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs,” he said to 67 million viewers. “The people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating, they’re eating, the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in this country.”

...

A Vance spokesperson on Tuesday provided The Wall Street Journal with a police report in which a resident had claimed her pet might have been taken by Haitian neighbors. But when a reporter went to Anna Kilgore’s house Tuesday evening, she said her cat Miss Sassy, which went missing in late August, had actually returned a few days later—found safe in her own basement.

Kilgore, wearing a Trump shirt and hat, said she apologized to her Haitian neighbors with the help of her daughter and a mobile-phone translation app.

Clint Watts at Microsoft:

    Russia and Iran have both undertaken cyber influence operations headed into the 2024 presidential election. In our last report, published on August 8, we detailed how Iranian cyber-enabled influence operations sought to undermine the Republican campaign through targeted hack-and-leak operations, covert social media personas, and imposter US news sites. In the past two months, Microsoft has observed a notable shift in Russian influence operations tactics reflecting the changing U.S. political environment. Specifically, we have observed Russia pivot towards targeting the Harris-Walz campaign, with actors disseminating fabricated videos designed to sow discord and spread disinformation about the new Democratic nominee Vice President Harris.

    We discuss this activity in a new report by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) released today. This update follows other reports we have released around activity by actors advancing the geopolitical goals of Iran and China.

    The shift to focusing on the Harris-Walz campaign reflects a strategic move by Russian actors aimed at exploiting any perceived vulnerabilities in the new candidates. Initially, Russian influence operations struggled to evolve their efforts following President Biden’s departure from the 2024 US presidential race. However, in late August and September, we observed two Russian actors MTAC tracks closely — previously reported as Storm-1516 and Storm-1679 — using videos designed to discredit Harris and stoke controversy around her campaign. Specifically: Storm-1516, identified by news reports as a Kremlin-aligned troll farm, produced and disseminated two inauthentic videos, each generating millions of views. One video depicted an attack by alleged Harris supporters on a supposed Trump rally attendee, while another used an on-screen actor to fabricate false claims about Harris’s involvement in a hit-and-run accident. This second video was laundered through a website masquerading as a local San Francisco media outlet — which was only created days beforehand. Storm-1679, a newer group reportedly aligned with the Kremlin, pivoted its focus from producing content about the 2024 Paris Olympic Games to publishing false videos discrediting Vice President Harris. One of the videos, which was shared on X shortly after it was published to Telegram, depicted a fake New York City billboard advancing false claims about Harris’ policies. The X post received more than 100,000 views in the four hours after it was published on Telegram
  • . 

 

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Believing Trump's Lies

 In Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politicswe look at Trump's dishonesty and disregard for the rule of law.

Aaron Blake at WP:
As Trump has launched a series of claims and suggestions that are bizarre even by his standards, new data shows large swaths of his supporters believe them.

But the most drastic among them — most notably the claim about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, stealing and eating pets — have not caught on with more middle-of-the-road voters. That suggests there is real potential downside for Trump in pushing these fantasies.

The new data comes from YouGov, which has occasionally tested Trump’s false claims. After last week’s debate, YouGov asked voters about a battery of them.

The major findings on what Trump supporters believe:

  • A majority (52 percent) of Trump supporters say they believe the claim about Haitian migrants “abducting and eating pet dogs and cats.” Excluding those who are “not sure,” twice as many say it’s at least “probably true” as say it’s at least “probably false.” (There remains no real evidence for this claim. Officials have debunked it and linked it to threats, and Republican Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine on Sunday called it “a piece of garbage that was simply not true.”)
  • 43 percent of Trump supporters say they believe that “in some states it is legal to kill a baby after birth” — another claim Trump referenced at last week’s debate. In fact, slightly more said they believed this was true than disbelieved it. (It is false.)
  • 28 percent of Trump supporters say they believe that “public schools are providing students with sex-change operations,” something Trump has recently suggested is happening but for which there is no evidence.
  • 81 percent of Trump supporters say they believe Venezuela is “deliberately sending people from prisons and mental institutions” to the United States. (There is no evidence that Venezuela or any other country is doing this, and Trump has used bad data to support his claim.)
The claims about Haitian migrants, post-birth executions and sex changes at school are actually some of the least pervasive. But the other claims that Trump supporters believe are more about statistics than ridiculous assertions.

For example, 77 percent say they believe the United States has given more aid to Ukraine than all of Europe combined (false), 70 percent say they believe millions of undocumented immigrants are arriving every month (false), and 70 percent say they believe inflation is at its highest rate ever (not true today or at any point in recent years).

Monday, September 16, 2024

Just Another Sunday

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. 

Mary Ann Akers at The Daily Beast:

Donald Trump wasted no time hitting up potential donors for money Sunday in the immediate aftermath of the second apparent assassination attempt against him in two months.

Within a few hours, the former president sent out an “Alert from Trump” email blast to potential donors saying: "There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL! Nothing will slow me down.”