Just Another Sunday

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. 

Mary Ann Akers at The Daily Beast:

Donald Trump wasted no time hitting up potential donors for money Sunday in the immediate aftermath of the second apparent assassination attempt against him in two months.

Within a few hours, the former president sent out an “Alert from Trump” email blast to potential donors saying: "There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I AM SAFE AND WELL! Nothing will slow me down.”

In all seriousness, as a former federal prosecutor, I can tell you that a statement like Elon Musk's below DOES require an immediate visit by the U.S. Secret Service. That is the protocol in every similar situation. https://t.co/OuZ4lYoNlu

— Elizabeth de la Vega 🇺🇸🦅 (@Delavegalaw) September 16, 2024

There is so much going on here, but the first thing is the Secret Service and FBI should be looking very seriously at the NH Libertarian Party, including because they took the original tweet down not because assassination is bad but because of Twitter's Terms of Service pic.twitter.com/GX5P4yDmqD

— Neil C (@RealNeilC) September 15, 2024

Kamala Harris, the Choice of Reaganites

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

The last night of the Democratic convention features flags, veterans, and Adam Kinzinger.

Parts of Harris's acceptance speech sounded like ... Reagan.

Aaron Navarro at CBS:

Seventeen former staff members of the late Republican President Ronald Reagan are endorsing the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

In a joint statement first obtained by CBS News, the staff members wrote that Reagan, if alive, would have supported Harris.

"President Ronald Reagan famously spoke about a 'Time for Choosing.' While he is not here to experience the current moment, we who worked for him in the White House, in the administration, in campaigns and on his personal staff, know he would join us in supporting the Harris-Walz ticket," the group writes. "The time for choosing we face today is a choice between integrity and demagoguery, and the choice must be Harris-Walz," the group added. "Our votes in this election are less about supporting the Democratic Party and more about our resounding support for democracy."

Over 230 former officials for Republican presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush have also backed Harris, in addition to campaign staffers for Republican presidential nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney. Biden received a similar amount of GOP support in his 2020 run against Trump.

Former Reagan staff backing Harris includes Ken Adelman, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and U.S. arms control director under Reagan, as well as B. Jay Cooper, the special assistant and deputy press secretary to Reagan. Adelman had endorsed former President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign, as well as President Biden's 2020 run. He backed Republican Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign, but was against Trump's 2016 run.

ROBBIE GRAMER and ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL  at Politico:

Democratic super PAC is unveiling a new ad campaign across battleground states targeting Americans of Eastern European descent. The message? It touts Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ record on Ukraine and bashes former President DONALD TRUMP’s approach to Russia.

The campaign, run by the America’s Future Majority Fund super PAC, is expected to include rounds of TV and digital ads in Pennsylvania, followed by two more crucial swing states — Michigan and Wisconsin. All three states have sizable populations with roots in Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and elsewhere across Eastern Europe.

In the presidential debate on Tuesday, Harris appealed directly to the “800,000 Polish Americans right here in Pennsylvania,” arguing that Poland would be Russia’s next target after Ukraine. “If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kyiv right now,” Harris asserted.

Coupled together, these represent a new tack for the Democrats to take in battleground states, tying their campaign pitch to communities for whom the war in Ukraine has more personal resonance and working to convince them that Trump would abandon Ukraine and allies along NATO’s eastern flank.

...

More than 700,000 people in Pennsylvania, or some 5 percent of the state’s population, are Polish American and around 122,000 are Ukrainian American. Michigan has around 900,000 Polish Americans and 40,000 Ukrainian-Americans and Wisconsin has around 480,000 Polish Americans. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes, Michigan by 154,000 votes and Wisconsin by 20,000 votes.

 

The Taylor Swift Effect

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  And in just a few weeks, the race has changed. 

 Maggie Astor at NYT:

Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday and her call for her fans to vote drove hundreds of thousands of people to voter registration resources.

Her post on Instagram included a link to Vote.gov, a website run by two federal agencies, the General Services Administration and the Election Assistance Commission. About 406,000 people clicked on the link in the 24 hours after Ms. Swift posted it, according to a spokeswoman for the G.S.A.

That link accounted for more than half of the roughly 727,000 visitors Vote.gov received from Tuesday to Wednesday. The remainder was likely driven by the debate itself. Last week, from Sept. 3-9, the site received an average of about 30,000 visitors per day, according to the agency.

Vote.gov serves as a clearinghouse that directs prospective voters to their state’s registration website. Since people cannot register to vote directly on the site, it is not possible to determine how many of the people who clicked the link also registered.

Good Economic News

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of economic policy.  Objective indicators are doing great. Perceptions, less so.

Rachel Siegel at WP:

Inflation eased again in August, dropping to the lowest level in more than three years and locking in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week for the first time since the pandemic’s early days.

Data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices climbed 2.5 percent in the 12 months ending in August. That was a noticeable improvement over the 2.9 percent notched in July, in part because of falling gas prices. Prices also climbed 0.2 percent over the previous month.

Scott Sowers at WP:

Mortgage rates fell on Thursday to their lowest level since April 2023 — 6.2 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, down from 6.35 percent a week before, according to Freddie Mac.

That’s a sharp drop from the high of 7.8 percent recorded last October and welcome news for would-be home buyers who have been priced out of the property market, as well as homeowners who bought at high rates and are eager to refinance. It also comes as the Federal Reserve gets ready for its next policy meeting next week, when it is expected to announce the first interest-rate cut since it began hiking rates in March 2022 to combat spiraling inflation.

Harris Pitches to Republicans and Leaners

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

So far, the debates have severely disadvantaged Trump.  The first one knocked Biden out of the race, leading to the nomination of a far stronger opponent.  The second one showcased her strengths and his weaknesses.  He can still win, but it is not the race that he wanted.

 Leigh Ann Caldwell and Theodoric Meyer at WP:

It was clear in the debate that Vice President Kamala Harris’s goal was to get under Donald Trump’s skin. But less obvious were the ways in which she was trying to appeal to independent and disenchanted Republican voters.

“I pledge to you to be a president for all Americans,” Harris said less than five minutes into the debate. Later on, she noted she had the endorsement of 200 Republicans, which includes former vice president Dick Cheney and his daughter, former congresswoman Liz Cheney.

It’s an appeal-to-the-middle approach that emerged during the Democratic convention when Republicans spoke in support of Harris on the convention floor and she appealed to national security and democracy-minded conservatives, and it mirrors her campaign’s efforts to get independent and centrist voters on board.

Harris’s debate strategy wasn’t missed by some of the most prominent never-Trumpers.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who voted twice to impeach Trump and said he will not vote for Trump in November, took notice. He praised Harris’s debate performance, telling reporters that people saw an “intelligent, capable person.”

...

She walked back more liberal stances taken during the Democratic presidential primary in 2020, like her opposition to fracking and support for single-payer health care.

When Trump accused her of wanting to confiscate all guns, she said, “We’re not taking anybody’s guns away, so stop with the continuous lying about this stuff,” and added that she and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, “are both gun owners.”

Marin Cogan at Vox:

While the remark caught attention online, it wasn’t actually news. Harris had spoken about being a gun owner during her last campaign for president. “I am a gun owner, and I own a gun for probably the reason a lot of people do — for personal safety,” Harris told reporters after a campaign event in 2019.

At the time, Harris pointed to her career as a prosecutor by way of explanation. It’s not unusual for people who work in law enforcement, from parole officers to police to chief law enforcement officers, to own a gun out of concern that someone they’ve encountered in the legal system might try to exact revenge — as has happened before. The surprise is almost certainly for another reason altogether: Harris is a multiracial woman from a liberal state who has called for banning assault weapons and passing universal background checks.

From her acceptance speech:

And let me say, I know there are people of various political views watching tonight, and I want you to know I promise to be a president for all Americans. [Applause.] You can always trust me to put country above party and self; to hold sacred America's fundamental principles, from the rule of law to free and fair elections to the peaceful transfer of power. [Applause.]
.
....
And I'll tell you, this is personal for me. The middle class is where I come from. My mother kept a strict budget. We lived within our means, yet we wanted for little. And she expected us to make the most of the opportunities that were available to us and to be grateful for them, because, as she taught us, opportunity is not available to everyone.

That's why we will create what I call an opportunity economy — an opportunity economy where everyone has the chance to compete and a chance to succeed — [applause] — whether you live in a rural area, small town, or big city.

...

We will provide access to capital for small-business owners and entrepreneurs and founders.

...

 And let me be clear. And let me be clear. After decades in law enforcement, I know the importance of safety and security, especially at our border.

Last year, Joe and I brought together Democrats and conservative Republicans to write the strongest border bill in decades. The Border Patrol endorsed it. But Donald Trump believes a border deal would hurt his campaign, so he ordered his allies in Congress to kill the deal.

The Vice President: Well, I refuse to play politics with our security, and here is my pledge to you. As president, I will bring back the bipartisan border security bill that he killed, and I will sign it into law. [Applause.]

...

As vice president, I have confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances, and engaged with our brave troops overseas. [Applause.]

As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world. [Applause.] And I will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their families, and I will always honor and never disparage their service and their sacrifice. [Applause.]

Audience: USA! USA! USA!

The Vice President: I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence; that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century; and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership.

Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could, quote, "do whatever the hell they want."

Audience: Booo --

The Vice President: Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelenskyy to warn him about Russia's plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin's aggression. [Applause.] And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO Allies. [Applause.]

 

Harris Crushes Trump in Debate

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

So far, the debates have severely disadvantaged Trump.  The first one knocked Biden out of the race, leading to the nomination of a far stronger opponent.  The second one showcased her strengths and his weaknesses.  He can still win, but it is not the race that he wanted.

 Ariel Edwards-Levy, at CNN:

Registered voters who watched Tuesday’s presidential debate broadly agree that Kamala Harris outperformed Donald Trump, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS. The vice president also outpaced both debate watchers’ expectations for her and Joe Biden’s onstage performance against the former president earlier this year, the poll found.

Debate watchers said, 63% to 37%, that Harris turned in a better performance onstage in Philadelphia. Prior to the debate, the same voters were evenly split on which candidate would perform more strongly, with 50% saying Harris would do so and 50% that Trump would. And afterward, 96% of Harris supporters who tuned in said that their chosen candidate had done a better job, while a smaller 69% majority of Trump’s supporters credited him with having a better night.

Voters who watched the debate also left with improved views of Harris compared with their impressions pre-debate, while few changed their opinions of Trump overall. Their views of each candidate’s strengths on the issues continued to reflect the dynamics seen in national polling, with Trump holding an advantage on the economy, immigration and being commander in chief, and Harris more trusted on abortion and protecting democracy.

Lisa Lerer and Reid J. Epstein at NYT:

She turned to him with an arched brow. A quiet sigh. A hand on her chin. A laugh. A pitiful glance. A dismissive shake of her head.

From the opening moments of her first debate against Donald J. Trump, Kamala Harris craftily exploited her opponent’s biggest weakness.

Not his record. Not his divisive policies. Not his history of inflammatory statements.

Instead, she took aim at a far more primal part of him: his ego.

At his rallies, on his sycophantic social media network and surrounded by flatterers at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump is unquestioned, unchallenged and never ever mocked.

That changed over the course of 90 minutes in Philadelphia on Tuesday, when the woman who had never before met him succeeded, bit by bit, in puncturing his comfortable cocoon and triggering his annoyance and anger.

Ms. Harris questioned the size and loyalty of the crowds at his rallies. She said world leaders call him a “disgrace.” And she claimed his fortune was built by his father, recasting a business mogul who proudly boasts of being a self-made man as just another nepotism baby.

Then she stood by and watched, as Mr. Trump did himself a whole lot of damage.

Image

Elections 2014: House, Senate, and State Contests

 Overview:

• https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
• https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
• https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings (Not much here: most states elect during midterms)
• BALLOT MEASURES

Candidate Information

• House
• Senate
• Note that success in gubernatorial elections does not necessarily translate to Senate elections

Key thing to remember is partisan leaning:

• Few House districts are "behind enemy lines"
• Tester and Brown are the only Democratic incumbents seeking reelection from Trump states.

Most House and Senate incumbents win.

Where to find information on election results

• 2022 House vote and Partisan Voter Index
• 2022 Senate vote

Polls

Campaign Finance -- also look at outside spending

Authoritianism and Republicans

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. 

 Some Republican leaders -- and a measurable number of rank-and-file voters -- are open to violent rebellion, coups, and secession.  

Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Public Religion Research Institute:

Most Americans disagree that those convicted of crimes from Jan. 6th are being held hostage by the government or that Trump should do whatever it takes to be President if he is not declared the winner in 2024; authoritarians and Christian nationalists are more likely to agree.

• Just 23% of Americans agree that “the people convicted for their role in the violent Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol are really patriots who are being held hostage by the government.”
• A plurality of Republicans (43%), including half of those who hold favorable views of Trump (51%), agree with this idea, compared with 16% of Republicans with unfavorable views of Trump, 20% of independents, and 7% of Democrats.
• Christian nationalists and authoritarians are more likely to hold this belief than others, though Christian nationalists (44%) agree at higher rates than Americans who score high on the RWAS (38%) and CRAS (28%).
• Just 14% of Americans agree that “if Donald Trump is not confirmed as the winner of the 2024 election, he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume his rightful place as president,” compared with 24% of Americans who score high on the RWAS and 28% of Christian nationalism supporters.

Republicans, authoritarians, and Christian nationalists are far more likely than other Americans to believe that the Democrats have “weaponized the Department of Justice to try and silence Donald Trump and his supporters.”

• While roughly four in ten Americans believe the Justice Department has been weaponized against Trump and his supporters (39%), a strong majority of Republicans (78%), particularly those who hold favorable views of Trump (88%), agree, compared with 37% of independents, and 8% of Democrats.
• The majority of white evangelical Protestants (69%) and white Catholics (54%) agree, compared with minorities of members of other religious groups.
• Christian nationalism supporters (67%) are more likely than those who score very high or high on the RWAS (61%) and CRAS (50%) to agree with the weaponization of the Department of Justice against Donald Trump and his supporters.

Right-wing authoritarians and Christian nationalists are most supportive of the need for a strong leader who is willing to break the rules.

• Just one in three Americans agree with the idea of a leader who is willing to break some rules if that’s what it takes to set things right (34%).
• More than half of Republicans who view Trump favorably (55%) agree that we need a leader willing to break some rules compared with 26% of Republicans with unfavorable views of Trump, 32% of independents, and 22% of Democrats.
• The majority of those who score high on the RWAS (59%) and those who qualify as Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers (55%) agree with the need for a leader who is “willing to break some rules,” compared with 44% of those who score high on the CRAS.

Americans remain broadly supportive of the separation of powers and believe presidents should not have immunity from criminal prosecution or be allowed to limit opposing parties.

• Just two in ten Americans agree that former presidents should be immune from criminal prosecution (23%); have the power to limit opposing parties (20%); or ignore Congress or the Supreme Court (19%).
• Among Republicans with favorable views of Trump, 50% agree that former presidents should be immune from criminal prosecution, compared with 19% of Republicans who do not hold favorable views, 20% of independents, and 10% of Democrats.
• Among Americans who score high on both authoritarian scales and who qualify as Christian nationalism supporters, around one-third or fewer agree with these three measures that would strengthen the power of the president, except for 42% of Christian nationalism supporters who agree with immunity for former presidents.

While most Americans reject political violence, those who score high on the RWAS, CRAS, and Christian nationalism scales, as well as Republicans with favorable views of Trump, are more likely to do so.

• Just 16% of Americans agree that “patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” 16% agree that “if the 2024 presidential election is compromised by voter fraud, everyday Americans will need to ensure the rightful leader takes office, even if it requires taking violent actions,” and 15% agree that armed citizens are needed as poll watchers to ensure a fair presidential election.
• Republicans are more likely than independents and Democrats to agree that patriots may have to resort to violence (27%, 15%, and 8%, respectively); Americans need to ensure the rightful leader takes office, even with violence (24%, 15%, and 10%, respectively); and that armed citizens are needed as poll watchers (24%, 10%, and 10%, respectively). Republicans with favorable views of Trump are more likely to agree with all three statements (32%, 27%, and 28%, respectively).
• Christian nationalism supporters are slightly more likely than Americans who score high on the RWAS or CRAS to agree that true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country (33%, 28%, and 21%, respectively) or to ensure that the rightful leader takes office (30%, 26%, and 20%, respectively), and that armed citizens are needed as poll watchers (29%, 25%, and 20%, respectively).

Apocalyptic religious views, support for “Seven Mountains” theology, and the idea that America was chosen to be a promised land for European Christians are strongly linked to support for authoritarianism and Christian nationalism, religion, partisanship, and news trust.

• Two-thirds of Republicans (65%) agree that “the final battle between good and evil is upon us, and Christians should stand firm with the full armor of God,” compared with 39% of independents, and 32% of Democrats. More than eight in ten Christian nationalists (84%) hold this apocalyptic position, as do 70% of Americans with high RWAS scores and 61% of those with high CRAS scores.
• More than three in four Americans who most trust conservative news sources (76%) and nearly seven in ten Americans who most trust Fox News (69%) agree with this apocalyptic statement, compared with 44% who do not watch TV news and 37% who most trust mainstream news.
• Just one in four Americans (25%) believe that “God wants Christians to take control of the ‘7 mountains’ of society,” including 39% of Republicans, 18% of independents, and 17% of Democrats, while fewer than two in ten Americans (17%) believe that America was chosen by God to be a new promised land for European Christians (30% of Republicans, 15% of independents, and 8% of Democrats).
• No religious group has majority agreement with these two statements, but white evangelical Protestants are the most likely to agree (48% and 33%, respectively).

Support for authoritarianism and Christian nationalism are associated with the belief that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity.

• Most Republicans (80%), particularly those who favor Trump (86%), along with 54% of independents and 38% of Democrats agree that America is in danger of losing its culture and identity.
• Most Christian nationalism supporters (82%) as well as those who score high on the RWAS (82%) agree that America is losing its culture and identity; most Americans scoring high on the CRAS do so as well (69%).
• Except for religiously unaffiliated Americans (41%) and other non-Christians (39%), majorities of other religious groups agree that America is losing its culture and identity, especially white evangelical Protestants (77%) and white Catholics (68%).

Most Americans reject patriarchal views that defend traditional gender roles; however, Republicans and Christian nationalists are more likely than others to support these views.

• Less than half of Americans believe that society has become too soft and feminine (41%), the husband is the head of the household (32%), society is better off when men and women stick to the jobs and tasks they are naturally suited for (32%), the truest vocation for any woman is to be a wife and mother (25%), and that women’s gains have come at the expense of men (17%).
• Across all five measures, Republicans, particularly those who favor Trump, are more likely than independents and Democrats to agree, and Christian nationalism supporters are more likely than those with high RWAS and CRAS scores to agree.

Views about immigrants’ impact on the economy and local communities as well as extreme views on immigration are strongly related to authoritarianism and Christian nationalism, as is partisanship.

• Nearly two-thirds of Americans agree that immigrants are generally good for America’s economy (65%), but 56% also agree that the growing number of newcomers burdens local communities. Significantly fewer Americans agree that immigrants increase crime rates in local communities (38%).
• Republicans are significantly more likely than independents and Democrats to agree that immigrants are a burden to local communities (84%, 54%, and 35%) and increase crime rates (67%, 35%, and 17%), with a larger gap between the views of Republicans who view Trump favorably and unfavorably on immigrants as increasing crime rates (75% vs. 37%, respectively) compared with immigrants burdening local communities (88% vs. 74%).
• Most Christian nationalism supporters and Americans who score high on the RWAS agree that immigrants burden local communities (79% and 77%, respectively) or increase crime (63% and 59%, respectively).
• Roughly one-third of Americans agree with the statements that immigrants who enter the country illegally are poisoning the blood of our country (35%), we should round up all immigrants who are in the country illegally (35%), and immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background (33%).
• About six in ten Republicans agree with all three statements (64%, 63%, and 60%), compared with three in ten independents (30%, 31%, and 30%), and under two in ten Democrats (16%, 17%, and 14%). Republicans who hold favorable views of Trump are more than twice as likely as those with unfavorable views to agree with all three statements.
• Except for white evangelical Protestants (54%, 56%, 55%), no religious group reaches majority agreement for any of these three statements.
• Over six in ten Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers (64%), 59% of those who score high on the RWAS, and 48% of those who score high on the CRAS agree that immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country. 

Toss-Up America

In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020. 

 At Axios, Jim Vande Hei and Mike Allenn offer eight immutable laws of Toss-up America. 

1. The 50-50 rule. Only twice since 2000 has the White House, Senate or House not flipped. Hence, constant political volatility. Move a few hundred thousand votes in three states in 2016 or 2020, and the loser would have been president.
2. The popularity mirage. Democrats have won the popular vote for president in seven of the last eight elections. But they still lost the electoral vote, which decides the winner — George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. The same dynamic is often true for House and Senate races. Democrats pack themselves so tightly into big cities in big states, which is why those red and blue maps look like red seas.
3. Women rule — voting. More women than men have voted in every election since 1980 — and almost always a majority for Dems. The number of U.S. women registered to vote is typically 7 million to 10 million more than the number of men, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. Among young women (ages 18 to 29) in six swing states, N.Y. Times-Siena College polls in August found an astonishing 38-point advantage for Harris (67%-29%).
4. Most states don't matter. Both parties see the same seven swing states for the White House. The states change a bit — but the number hardly budges. The ballgame in 2024 will be the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania + the fast-growing Sun Belt swath of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina. You can boil it down to: Harris needs Pennsylvania, and Trump needs Georgia. In the past four elections, 40 states have voted for the same party.
5. The Trump hump. Roughly 45% of voters are diehards who can be expected to be with him no matter what. But he also has a ceiling: He didn't break 47% in 2016 or 2020, and is unlikely to go much above that this year. That's why third parties and double-haters matter on the margins.
6. The Senate is almost always in play. It all comes down to which 33 states have Senate races in a given two-year cycle. It's all about the map. And this year, Republicans have a formidable advantage: West Virginia is certain to go red after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin. Democrats have to win Trump-friendly Ohio and Montana — plus the White House — for a 50-50 Senate majority, with the vice president as the tie-breaker. Candidate quality plays an outsized role: Republican Senate candidates have consistently underperformed Trump in battleground polling, giving Democrats an edge in what otherwise would be toss-ups. But Dems also face tough maps in 2026 and 2028.
7. Flipping the House is easier than ever. Redistricting — and self-sorting, where conservatives and liberals literally move next to like-minded neighbors — has rendered 400 of 435 races over before they begin. Rural areas and big cities are rarely, if ever, competitive. After several changes Friday, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates only 24 House races as toss-ups, with 13 held by Republicans and 11 held by Dems — a nearly even split. Dave Wasserman, Cook's senior editor and election analyst, tells us Democrats need to win 15 of 24 toss-ups (60%) to win the majority. They won 75% of Cook's toss-ups (27/36) in 2022.
8. There's no Election Day. Yes, Nov. 5 is technically Election Day. But most people voted long before. COVID "accelerated voting trends that had been building for the past decade," Doug Sosnik, a top adviser to President Clinton, wrote last year in his "10 New Rules of American Politics." Several key states — including the biggest prize of all, Pennsylvania — start early voting this month.
9. 
   
10. Stat for the road: Dave "I've Seen Enough" Wasserman turned us onto a fascinating metric. In a House where Republicans hold the narrowest majority, just 16 districts out of 435 (4%!) voted for a different party for president than for House — toss-up America.

Pessimism on the HIll

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.

Emily Brooks and Mychael Schnell at The Hill:

Rep. Tony Gonzales’s (R-Texas) pessimistic prediction that the House GOP conference will lose its majority in November is sparking frustrations among Republican lawmakers, while underscoring just how competitive the race for the lower chamber will be this fall.

The surprise comments from Gonzales at the Texas Tribune Festival on Thursday drew widespread attention, breaking from the positive expectations other GOP lawmakers have publicly hammered home.

Ally Mutnick at Politico:

Republicans are racing to plug a massive money hole — before it’s too late.

The leader of House Republicans’ biggest super PAC told donors last month he needed $35 million more to compete with Democrats in the fall. Senate GOP campaign chair Steve Daines used his primetime speaking slot at the Republican convention to lament that massive spending from Democrats was keeping him awake at night. And his House GOP counterpart warned that their party’s challengers trailed Democratic incumbents by a collective $37 million at the end of June.

 

A Bad Day for Trump

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  Dick and Liz Cheney are supporting Harris.

Adam Wren and Megan Messerly at Politico:

Former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney made clear her war against former President Donald Trump won’t be limited to her endorsement of Kamala Harris and will include campaigning in battleground states this fall.

In an interview Friday at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Cheney also said her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, would be voting for Harris. The audience erupted in cheers after she mentioned her father’s vote.

When you are running behind in a presidential race, it is not a best practice to remind people that a jury found you liable for sexual abuse.  AP:

Veering from the campaign trail to a courtroom, Donald Trump quietly observed Friday as his lawyer fought to overturn a verdict finding the former president liable for sexual abuse and defamation.

The Republican nominee and his accuser, E. Jean Carroll, a writer, sat at tables about 15 feet (4.5 meters) apart, in a Manhattan federal appeals court. Trump didn’t acknowledge or look at Carroll as he passed directly in front of her on the way in and out, but he sometimes shook his head, including when Carroll’s attorney said he sexually attacked her.

Trump attorney D. John Sauer told three 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges that the civil trial in Carroll’s lawsuit was muddied by improper evidence.

“This case is a textbook example of implausible allegations being propped up by highly inflammatory, inadmissible” evidence, Sauer said, noting that jurors saw the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump boasted in 2005 about grabbing women’s genitals because when someone is a star, “you can do anything.”
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Carroll’s lawyer, Roberta Kaplan, told judges the evidence in question was proper, and that there was plenty of proof in the nearly two-week-long trial of Carroll’s claim that Trump attacked her in a luxury department store dressing room decades ago. She said the “Access Hollywood” tape, as the trial judge had noted, could be viewed as a confession.

“E. Jean Carroll brought this case because Donald Trump sexually assaulted her in 1996, in a dressing room at Bergdorf Goodman, and then defamed her in 2022 by claiming that she was crazy and made the whole thing up,” Kaplan said.

Carroll, standing with Kaplan outside the courthouse afterward, declined to comment.

Trump left court in a motorcade, then delivered a lengthy diatribe against the case at Trump Tower, where he said again that Carroll — and other women who had accused him of sexual assault — were making everything up.

“It’s so false. It’s a made up, fabricated story by somebody, I think, initially, just looking to promote a book,” Trump said. Carroll first spoke publicly about her encounter with Trump in a newly published memoir in 2019.

In remarks to reporters Friday, Trump repeated many claims about Carroll that a jury has already deemed defamatory, and added some new ones, like suggesting that a photograph of him and Carroll together in 1987 was produced by artificial intelligence. It was unclear whether his comments could lead to a new defamation lawsuit by Carroll.

“I’ve said before and I’ll say it again: all options are on the table,” Kaplan said after Trump’s news conference.

Facts of Life and Death

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  And neither is the selection of J.D. Vance as its vice presidential candidate.  (Dem oppo folks are doing well.)

Rebecca Falconer at Axios:

Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) made clear in comments Thursday they have very different ideas in how to respond to gun violence in the wake of the Apalachee High School shooting that killed four people and injured nine others.

Driving the news: A CNN reporter asked Vance at a Phoenix, Arizona, event what his policies were on ending school shootings after this week's massacre, which saw a 14-year-old student charged with four counts of felony murder and his father facing charges including second-degree murder.Former President Trump's running mate said it was an "awful tragedy" and called for the bolstering of security in schools.

"If these psychos are going to go after our kids, we've got to be prepared for it," Vance said. "We don't have to like the reality that we live in, but it is the reality we live in. We've got to deal with it," he added.

"I don't like that this is a fact of life, but if you are a psycho and you want to make headlines, you realize that our schools are soft targets. And we have got to bolster security at our schools. We've got to bolster security so if a psycho wants to walk through the front door and kill a bunch of children, they're not able."

Meanwhile, Trump responded to a question from Fox News host Sean Hannity about the Georgia shooting during a Fox News town hall on Wednesday by saying: "It's a sick and angry world for a lot of reasons and we're going to make it better, and we're going to heal our world."

What they're saying "School shootings are not just a fact of life," Harris wrote on social media Thursday evening. "It doesn't have to be this way. We can take action to protect our children — and we will."