Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. She just chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. It is the first time since 1980 that a Democratic nominee has chosen a Midwesterner.
Tim Walz and JD Vance have vaulted themselves out of national obscurity as they hustle to introduce themselves to the country, but the senator from Ohio has had a rockier start than the Minnesota governor.
A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that Walz had a smoother launch as a running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris than Vance did for former President Donald Trump. About one-third of U.S. adults (36%) have a favorable view of Walz, who will introduce himself to his party when he speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday. About one-quarter (27%) have a positive opinion of Vance. Significantly more adults also have an unfavorable view of Vance than Walz, 44% to 25%.
Kadia Goba and Benjy Sarlin at Semafor:
But Walz has also faced a non-stop barrage of attacks from Republicans in the same period, led by Vance, that have drawn significant coverage. The Harris campaign had to acknowledge he misspoke years earlier about carrying weapons “in war,” which was part of a broader suite of attacks aimed at his military record, and he’s faced additional scrutiny over his 2006 campaign’s handling of an old DUI arrest. Republicans have also attacked his record as governor, especially his support for LGBTQ protections and handling of the 2020 riots in Minneapolis after George Floyd’s murder.
In short, Walz is getting good and bad press simultaneously: The survey found most voters have heard about his 20 years of a teacher, heard about (and admire) his 24 years in the Army National Guard, but also had heard that he retired before his unit deployed to Iraq, a prominent attack from Vance.
Blueprint tested several rebuttals to some of the most common criticisms of Walz and found the most effective response in each case was to quickly pivot to attacking Republicans for trying to distract from other campaign issues.
Vice President Kamala Harris is getting a bigger boost from picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate than former President Trump has gotten from Ohio Sen. JD Vance, according to two new polls.
Why it matters: Running mates don't usually determine presidential elections, but this race has enough twists to test that norm.Vance and Walz, military veterans from Midwestern states who emphasize their understanding of the working class, both were tapped with an eye for their potential to balance the more coastal, elite reputations of their running mates.
The big picture: Walz outperformed Vance on a range of authenticity and compassion questions — including who better understands small-town Americans' concerns — in a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.A new Syracuse University-Ipsos poll, meanwhile, shows that Americans believe Harris' odds of winning have improved more with her selection of Walz than Trump's have improved with Vance on the ticket.
Two in three voters in the Axios Vibes survey said the vice presidential candidate is important to their vote this year. But there's a partisan gap, with 81% of Democratic voters and just 59% of Republicans saying it's important.
By the numbers: In the Axios Vibes survey, Walz outperformed Vance on four measures:"Has an authentic connection to everyday Americans" (43% to 35% overall ... 36% to 29% with independents).Vance more than Walz was seen as supporting policies benefiting wealthy people in big cities (41% to 29% overall ... 37% to 22% with independents) and being more worried about himself than constituents (41% to 33% overall ... 37% to 25% with independents).
- "Understands the challenges in your community" (39% to 33% overall ... 32% to 27% with independents).
- "Understands the issues affecting rural and small-town America" (41% to 35% overall ... 35% to 29% with independents).
- "Feels and talks like someone from a small town" (39% to 34% overall ... 35% to 27% with independents).
