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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Spoilers

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  In 2024, RFK Jr. initially looked as if he might be a consequential independent candidate. But after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, his support collapsed.  He pulled out and endorsed Trump.

Aaron Blake at WP:
The impact of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his presidential campaign Friday and endorsing Donald Trump remains to be seen.

It’s more likely to be a boon to Trump than to Vice President Kamala Harris, given Kennedy was drawing significantly more votes from the right and from would-be Trump supporters. But Kennedy’s share of the vote was at about 5 percent and falling.
One thing that’s relatively evident, though: To the extent the remaining third-party and independent candidates pull votes and even potentially play spoilers, it appears more likely to be at Harris’s expense.

Kennedy’s exit leaves three significant names below Trump and Harris on at least some state ballots: Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West.

All three come from left-leaning backgrounds. Stein and West are both generally further to the political left than Harris. Oliver’s potential appeal is harder to define, as it often is with Libertarians. But he’s a former Democrat and left-leaning Libertarian who defeated a more right-wing candidate at May’s Libertarian National Convention.