Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee. And in just a few weeks, the race has changed.
A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.
In a May 6-15, 2024, Marquette Law School Poll national survey, Trump was the choice of 50% and President Joe Biden was the pick of 50% Among registered voters, while Trump took 51% of likely voters and Biden 49%.
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In a generic question about congressional races, 52% of registered voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 48% will vote for the Republican candidate. In May, 50% picked the Democrat and 50% picked the Republican.
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A large majority of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 87% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee, 10% very or somewhat dissatisfied, and 3% who say they don’t know. The poll was completed before Harris secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates.
A substantial majority of all registered voters, 80%, say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 13% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 87% say Biden should have withdrawn.
Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 43% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 11% say they don’t know.
Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer at WP:
Trump now finds himself back in a dead-even contest and with new signs of strain in his orbit. In the face of new Democratic momentum, he has grown increasingly upset about Harris’s surging poll numbers and media coverage since replacing Biden on the ticket, complaining relentlessly and asking friends about how his campaign is performing, according to five people close to the campaign who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
“It’s unfair that I beat him and now I have to beat her, too,” Trump told an ally in a phone call last weekend.
Senate Democrats facing tough reelection contests in battleground states were difficult to find at Joe Biden’s July campaign events as the president’s political prospects took a nosedive.
Kamala Harris is bringing them back.
Sen. Bob Casey joined Tuesday’s debut rally in Philadelphia for the Harris-Tim Walz ticket to tout the vice president’s background as a prosecutor who “[put] away dangerous criminals.” Sen. Tammy Baldwin called Harris and Walz “a new beginning for our party and our country” at their rally earlier Wednesday in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. And Rep. Elissa Slotkin, running for an open seat in Michigan, offered a searing takedown of former President Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, in suburban Detroit later that evening.
