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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Saturday, August 31, 2024

The Democratic Party Decides

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

The Party Decides held that party elites largely determine presidential nominations.  That theory stopped working for the GOP in 2016.  But it still works on the Democratic side. 

Carl Hulse at NYT:
The effort by Mr. Schumer and Senate Democrats to persuade Mr. Biden to step aside was a more pivotal factor than previously known in bringing about the president’s exit from the race, as he found himself with scant support in the chamber that had been his political home for 36 years.

Representative Nancy Pelosi, who appeared on television hinting at her concerns about Mr. Biden and privately made the case that he could not win, has widely been credited as the chief architect of the quiet but intense drive to sideline the president. But behind the scenes, Mr. Schumer and his colleagues — along with Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the House Democratic leader, and former President Barack Obama — were also playing a powerful role.

Mr. Schumer was spurred to action after it became abundantly clear that Senate Democrats, Mr. Biden’s closest political allies on Capitol Hill, believed that he was putting them and his legacy at risk should he stay in the race against former President Donald J. Trump, an assessment that helped move the president to his ultimate choice.

The first glimmers of discontent emerged at Senate Democrats’ weekly Tuesday luncheon in early July, their first opportunity since the late-June debate debacle to assemble and candidly share their views. They were not reticent. Multiple senators were up in arms about the president’s showing and demeanor in the face-off with Mr. Trump. Of about a dozen Democrats who spoke, attendees counted just three who were supportive of the president remaining a candidate.

“It knocked my socks off how upset and angry people were, how the overwhelming majority got up and spoke really strongly,” Mr. Schumer said in an interview.

This account is based on multiple interviews with those with firsthand knowledge of the events, most of whom insisted on anonymity to discuss details of what are typically confidential meetings.

The Tuesday luncheon came the day after Mr. Biden had released a letter to members of Congress insisting that he would stay in the race and expressing frustration with “elites” who were calling for him to step aside. The missive landed like a bomb on Capitol Hill and fueled a sense of panic at Democrats’ weekly confab in the Senate, where two of the party’s most endangered incumbents — Senators Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana — said they could not survive with Mr. Biden on the ballot.

Friday, August 30, 2024

Trump v. the US Army

Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this month At times, his crudeness has helped him appear transgressive.  Lately, it has hurt him.  If he wants to appeal to veterans, active-duty military members, and their families, it is hard to think of a worse approach than belittling the Medal of Honor and disrespecting Arlington National Cemetery. Picking a fight with the Army did not work for Joe McCarthy in 1954.



The Harris-Walz Interview: Pivot!

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

In our forthcoming book on the 2024 election, we note that "incumbency" is an ambiguous concept when the challenger was the incumbent just four years earlier and has remained in the public eye ever since.

Mike Allen at Axios:
Vice President Harris said twice during yesterday's interview in Georgia with CNN's Dana Bash that Americans are ready to "turn the page" on the Trump era.Why it matters: It's part of Harris' strategy of portraying herself as the candidate of change, even though she's in the White House — and trying to make former President Trump seem like the exhausting incumbent.

Harris' campaign communications director, Brian Fallon, tweeted while the CNN special was still airing that even after Trump "lost in 2020, he never left the stage — he tried to overturn the election and began running again immediately. America is exhausted with him."

Harris, joined by running mate Tim Walz for her first formal interview since President Biden bowed out, rejected identity politics when asked about Trump's comments about her racial identity."Same old, tired playbook," Harris said. "Next question, please."

Bash followed up: "That's it?"Harris replied: "That's it."

Trump, on his Truth Social platform, called the interview: "BORING!!!"

She need not talk about identity politics. As soon as the camera is on, viewers can see that she is a Black woman. 

Kevin Liptak at CNN:

Pressed by Bash on her reversals on fracking and decriminalizing illegal border crossings, Harris sought to explain why her positions had changed.

“How should voters look at some of the changes that you’ve made?” Bash asked Harris. “Is it because you have more experience now and you’ve learned more about the information? Is it because you were running for president in a Democratic primary? And should they feel comfortable and confident that what you’re saying now is going to be your policy moving forward?”
Harris said despite the shifts in position, her values had not changed.

“I think the most important and most significant aspect of my policy perspective and decisions is my values have not changed,” she said. “You mentioned the Green New Deal. I have always believed – and I have worked on it – that the climate crisis is real, that it is an urgent matter to which we should apply metrics that include holding ourselves to deadlines around time.”
...
And she pointed to her record as California attorney general, when she prosecuted gangs accused of cross border trafficking, as an indication of her values on immigration.

Note that she did not directly answer Bash's question.  Instead of explaining why she changed her position, she pivoted to her underlying values and her record. 

Likewise, Walz pivoted when Bash asked about his inaccurate statements about his military record. Kierra Frazier at Politico:

CNN’s Dana Bash asked Walz about remarks in 2018, when he was running for Congress, and he said he “carried a weapon of war in war” as he discussed his support for restricting assault weapons.

Walz, who served 24 years in the National Guard but was not in combat, says he misspoke — chalking it up to garbling some words.

“My grammar is not always correct,” he said.

The Republican criticism was part of a broader effort to tarnish Walz soon after he emerged as Harris’ running mate. But the effect of the accusation has been muted, in part because former President Donald Trump made well-known efforts to dodge military service, and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, served four years in the Marine Corps and was deployed to Iraq but did not have combat experience.

Walz said in the CNN interview that his military record “speaks for itself” as he dismissed the criticism.

“I’m incredibly proud I’ve done 24 years of wearing the uniform of this country, equally proud of my service in a public school classroom, whether it’s Congress or the governor,” he said. “My record speaks for itself. I speak candidly. I wear my emotions on my sleeves, and I speak especially passionately about our children being shot in schools and around guns.”

Thursday, August 29, 2024

Trump, Vance, Unhinged

 Our books have discussed Trump's low character, which was on display this week. JD Vance is emulating him.


 Maegan Vazquez at WP:

“Kamala Harris is disgraceful. We’re going to talk about a story out of those 13 brave, innocent Americans who lost their lives? It’s that Kamala Harris is so asleep at the wheel that she won’t even do an investigation into what happened,” he asserted, though there have been extensive federal investigations into the Abbey Gate bombing.

Vance accused Harris of criticizing Trump’s visit to the cemetery, saying: “And she wants to yell at Donald Trump because he showed up? She can — she can go to hell.”


On Wednesday morning, Donald Trump had some kind of meltdown on his Truth Social profile, all before 10 a.m.

His many posts and “ReTruths” were conspiracy laden, crude, and calling for the death or imprisonment of his enemies. One showed Harris, Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci, and other Democrats wearing orange jumpsuits captioned with: “HOW TO ACTUALLY ‘FIX THE SYSTEM.’” Multiple posts had QAnon themes, particularly the slogan “WWG1WGA.” Other posts called for a military tribunal for former President Barack Obama, and attacked the FBI, the Justice Department, and the House January 6 committee.
When his posts weren’t full on fascist, they were simply vulgar instead. One such post showed an old photograph of Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton together, with a comment below reading “Funny how [oral gratification] impacted their careers differently…”

If Trump’s posting binge is a reflection of his state of mind, it’s not a good one. The Republican presidential nominee and convicted felon has experienced many setbacks as of late. On Tuesday, special counsel Jack Smith filed a superseding indictment against Trump for his role in trying to overthrow the 2020 federal election.


 


Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Team Trump Disrespects Arlington Cemetery

 In Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politicswe look at Trump's dishonesty and disregard for the rule of law.

Two members of Donald Trump's campaign staff had a verbal and physical altercation Monday with an official at Arlington National Cemetery, where the former president participated in a wreath-laying ceremony, NPR has learned.

A source with knowledge of the incident said the cemetery official tried to prevent Trump staffers from filming and photographing in a section where recent U.S. casualties are buried. The source said Arlington officials had made clear that only cemetery staff members would be authorized to take photographs or film in the area, known as Section 60.

When the cemetery official tried to prevent Trump campaign staff from entering Section 60, campaign staff verbally abused and pushed the official aside, according to the source.

Tuesday, August 27, 2024

Spoilers

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  In 2024, RFK Jr. initially looked as if he might be a consequential independent candidate. But after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, his support collapsed.  He pulled out and endorsed Trump.

Aaron Blake at WP:
The impact of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his presidential campaign Friday and endorsing Donald Trump remains to be seen.

It’s more likely to be a boon to Trump than to Vice President Kamala Harris, given Kennedy was drawing significantly more votes from the right and from would-be Trump supporters. But Kennedy’s share of the vote was at about 5 percent and falling.
One thing that’s relatively evident, though: To the extent the remaining third-party and independent candidates pull votes and even potentially play spoilers, it appears more likely to be at Harris’s expense.

Kennedy’s exit leaves three significant names below Trump and Harris on at least some state ballots: Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent Cornel West.

All three come from left-leaning backgrounds. Stein and West are both generally further to the political left than Harris. Oliver’s potential appeal is harder to define, as it often is with Libertarians. But he’s a former Democrat and left-leaning Libertarian who defeated a more right-wing candidate at May’s Libertarian National Convention.

Monday, August 26, 2024

Trump's Mystery Money

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses party organizations and campaign finance.

Juleanna Glover at NYT reports that there is little disclosure about Trump campaign spending.

Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure reports from 2020 show that much of the money donated to the Trump campaign went into a legal and financial black hole reportedly controlled by Trump family members and close associates. This year’s campaign disclosures are shaping up to be the same. Donors big and small give their hard-earned dollars to candidates with the expectation they will be spent on direct efforts to win votes. They deserve better.
During the 2020 election, almost $516 million of the over $780 million spent by the Trump campaign was directed to American Made Media Consultants, a Delaware-based private company created in 2018 that masked the identities of who ultimately received donor dollars, according to a complaint filed with the F.E.C. by the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center. How A.M.M.C. spent the money was a mystery even to Mr. Trump’s campaign team, according to news reports shortly after the election.

...

A.M.M.C.’s first president was reported to be Lara Trump, the wife of Mr. Trump’s son Eric. The New York Times reported that A.M.M.C. had a treasurer who was also the chief financial officer of Mr. Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign. Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, signed off on the plan to set up A.M.M.C., and one of Eric Trump’s deputies from the Trump Organization was involved in running it.

Ms. Trump is now co-chair of the Republican National Committee, which, soon after her arrival, announced it would link up with the Trump campaign for joint fund-raising. The joint entity prioritizes a PAC that pays Mr. Trump’s legal fees over the R.N.C., The Associated Press has reported, making assurances from Mr. Trump’s campaign co-manager that R.N.C. funds wouldn’t be used to pay Mr. Trump’s legal bills seem more hollow.

This election, the Trump campaign and four of its PACs have paid Red Curve Solutions, another private company, at least $18 million. The Campaign Legal Center says Red Curve appears to pay Mr. Trump’s legal bills and then gets reimbursed by the PACs. (The law is murky on what types of legal bills can be paid by campaigns, but some are allowed.) The head of Red Curve also serves as the treasurer for the Trump campaign as well as the affiliated PACs.

Sunday, August 25, 2024

Democrats Really LiKe Kamala Harris

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

 Megan Brenan at Gallup:

- Americans’ views of Vice President Kamala Harris have improved markedly in a Gallup poll conducted mostly before the Democratic National Convention began. Harris’ favorable and job approval ratings have been largely buoyed by Democrats’ nearly unanimous positive assessments, but independents’ ratings are also higher.

Americans’ favorable rating of Harris has increased 13 percentage points since June, to 47%, with 93% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 5% of Republicans holding positive opinions of her. The vice president’s job approval rating is also now 47%, up seven points from the previous reading in December 2023. Partisans’ job approval ratings of the vice president are in line with their favorable ratings of her. 

Kamala Harris’s campaign has been trying to get voters to feel the joy. Speakers at the Democratic National Convention used the word “joy” dozens of times, including when Bill Clinton hailed Ms. Harris as “the president of joy.”

But how do voters really feel? Does the data back up the vibes?

Polls have registered a jolt of newfound happiness about the election. In July, in the week after President Biden’s decision to forgo the nomination, a New York Times/Siena College survey found that anger and resignation had been subsiding among voters of both parties, while joy had jumped.

Since then, that happiness has apparently deepened, among Democrats in particular. Times/Siena swing state polls in August found that nearly 80 percent of Democrats said they were satisfied with their choice of candidates, a stark shift from May, when just 55 percent said they were.

In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?

Among registered voters across six swing states

Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

 

Note: “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” and “not satisfied” includes the responses “not too satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”




Saturday, August 24, 2024

RFK Out

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  In 2024, RFK Jr. initially looked as if he might be a consequential independent candidate. But after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, his support collapsed.  Yesterday, he pulled out and endorsed Trump.

 

Friday, August 23, 2024

Pelosi, Clyburn, and Harris

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

Backstories are crucial to understanding current events.

Pelosi nudged Biden out of the race. But she had a complicated relationship with the VP, dating back to the latter's first race for DA. Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell at WP:

Pelosi floated the idea of an “open process” to nominate a candidate were Biden to step aside, angering many of Harris’s California allies. (She privately told the California delegation in the House before Biden dropped out that they should immediately coalesce around Harris if she does end up becoming the nominee.)

... 

When Harris ran for San Francisco attorney general [sic, DA] in 2003 against Terence Hallinan, Pelosi and the San Francisco Democratic Party endorsed Hallinan. Harris beat her former boss in a runoff.

When Harris ran for Senate in 2016 to fill retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer’s seat against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez, Boxer and then-Sen. Dianne Feinstein endorsed Harris. Pelosi did not endorse in that race.
California politics are cliquey and built on years of powerful alliances. And Harris was not part of Pelosi’s circle.

In a CNN interview last year, Pelosi shocked the Democratic establishment when she was asked whether Harris is the best running mate for Biden. Biden “thinks so, and that’s what matters,” she replied.

But James Clyburn got him to endorse Harris.  As we explain in Divided We Stand, Biden owes his presidency to Clyburn.

Jasmine Wright at NOTUS:
At times, Harris’ allies saw her as the victim of the age-old Black spiritual that young Black women are told from generation to generation: You have to be twice as good to get half of what white people have. And if you falter for a moment, that could follow you for the rest of time.

“I think she was treated unfairly by the media,” said Rep. Jim Clyburn, a key Biden ally who is also a Harris supporter. “Some Democrats, too.”

But her aides spent years trying to rehabilitate her image, focusing on reconnecting with Harris’ longtime advocates and finding new ones in an attempt to build a firewall of support for when the detractors got too loud. And it was that firewall that was put to work after Biden’s debate in June, activated and waiting for the July moment when Biden decided to end his campaign.

“When Joe Biden called me that morning, read me his statement, I said to him at the time, ‘There’s something missing in this statement.’ And he knew what I meant. And he said to me at the time, ‘I will be issuing a second statement within the hour.’ And that was the statement endorsing her,” Clyburn said.

Black electeds and political operatives were quick to declare to all who would hear that if the Democratic Party skipped over Harris, it would be at its own peril.


Harris Reaches Beyond the Liberal Base

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

The last night of the Democratic convention features flags, veterans, and Adam Kinzinger.

Parts of Harris's acceptance speech sounded like ... Reagan.

And let me be clear — and let me be clear, after decades in law enforcement, I know the importance of safety and security, especially at our border. Last year, Joe and I brought together Democrats and conservative Republicans to write the strongest border bill in decades. The border patrol endorsed it. But Donald Trump believes a border deal would hurt his campaign, so he ordered his allies in Congress to kill the deal.

Well, I refuse to play politics with our security, and here is my pledge to you. As president, I will bring back the bipartisan border security bill that he killed, and I will sign it into law. I know — I know we can live up to our proud heritage as a nation of immigrants and reform our broken immigration system. We can create an earned pathway to citizenship and secure our border.

And America, we must also be steadfast in advancing our security and values abroad. As vice president, I have confronted threats to our security, negotiated with foreign leaders, strengthened our alliances and engaged with our brave troops overseas. As commander in chief, I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world. And I will fulfill our sacred obligation to care for our troops and their families, and I will always honor and never disparage their service and their sacrifice.

I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence. That America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership. Trump, on the other hand, threatened to abandon NATO. He encouraged Putin to invade our allies. Said Russia could “do whatever the hell they want.”

Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia’s plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response — over 50 countries — to defend against Putin’s aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.

...

 And know this: I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists. I will not cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-un, who are rooting for Trump. Who are rooting for Trump.

...

 So, fellow Americans. Fellow Americans. I — I love our country with all my heart. Everywhere I go — everywhere I go, in everyone I meet, I see a nation that is ready to move forward. Ready for the next step in the incredible journey that is America.

I see an America where we hold fast to the fearless belief that built our nation and inspired the world. That here, in this country, anything is possible. That nothing is out of reach. An America where we care for one another, look out for one another and recognize that we have so much more in common than what separates us. That none of us — none of us has to fail for all of us to succeed.

And that in unity, there is strength. You know, our opponents in this race are out there every day denigrating America, talking about how terrible everything is. Well, my mother had another lesson she used to teach: Never let anyone tell you who you are. You show them who you are.

America, let us show each other and the world who we are and what we stand for: Freedom, opportunity, compassion, dignity, fairness and endless possibilities.

We are the heirs to the greatest democracy in the history of the world. And on behalf of our children and our grandchildren and all those who sacrificed so dearly for our freedom and liberty, we must be worthy of this moment.

It is now our turn to do what generations before us have done, guided by optimism and faith, to fight for this country we love, to fight for the ideals we cherish and to uphold the awesome responsibility that comes with the greatest privilege on Earth: the privilege and pride of being an American. So let’s get out there, let’s fight for it. Let’s get out there, let’s vote for it, and together, let us write the next great chapter in the most extraordinary story ever told.

Thank you. God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America. Thank you.


Thursday, August 22, 2024

The Godmother, Part II

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

Molly Ball at WSJ:

It was Pelosi who stepped up to say what many Democrats were thinking but afraid to articulate publicly after Biden’s disastrous June 27 presidential debate, even as he and his tightknit circle of protectors sought to circle the wagons. “It’s a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?” she said in a July 2 television appearance.

A week later—after Biden sent a letter to congressional Democrats insisting he was “firmly committed to staying in this race,” even as his standing in polls was entering a steep slide—Pelosi’s language grew more urgent. “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short,” she said on MSNBC. The subtlety of the comment, which strongly implied the “decision” she would prefer without coming out and calling for Biden to step down, was classic Pelosi. As a steady trickle of lawmakers began publicly endorsing a Biden withdrawal, many viewed Pelosi’s remarks as encouragement to keep up the pressure.

Pelosi was introduced by actor Mindy Kaling at the convention in Chicago as the “mother of dragons.” In her speech, she thanked Biden and talked about their mutual successes.

She has taken pains to play down her role as an orchestrator of the pressure campaign, insisting that she didn’t make any calls herself. Instead, she says she simply made herself available to those who had concerns and encouraged them to make their views known to the White House. Nonetheless, a top House Democratic staffer said she was viewed as “leading the charge on getting Biden to reconsider,” openly expressing concerns about his political viability to fellow House Democrats.
However subtly phrased, the message was clear, and it was one Pelosi was uniquely positioned to deliver. Congressional Democrats’ current leaders, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, both of New York, were hamstrung by their need to represent their members’ diverse views on the Biden question. Another party eminence, former President Barack Obama, was the subject of a continuing Biden grudge for favoring Hillary Clinton’s candidacy over his own in 2016. Alone among senior Democrats, Pelosi is seen by Biden as a peer, and she could speak from experience about questions of age and surrendering power.
...

Longtime Pelosi watchers say her unsentimental determination to cashier a beloved friend and ally was consistent with her trademark ruthlessness. Ex-Rep. Steve Israel, a former member of Pelosi’s congressional leadership team, said she would sometimes refer to “two-ventricle strategies,” meaning coldblooded—an apparent misstatement of the reptilian anatomy. “Meaning sometimes you have to put emotion aside and warm and fuzzy feelings aside and do what you must to win—not for the sake of winning, she would always say, but for the sake of advancing the agenda,” Israel said.

Pelosi didn’t spare herself from this emotional detachment, either, never taking personally the negative remarks candidates in tough races would often make about her.

 

Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Vance and Walz

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawalKamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  She just chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. It is the first time since 1980 that a Democratic nominee has chosen a Midwesterner.
Tim Walz and JD Vance have vaulted themselves out of national obscurity as they hustle to introduce themselves to the country, but the senator from Ohio has had a rockier start than the Minnesota governor.

A poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that Walz had a smoother launch as a running mate to Vice President Kamala Harris than Vance did for former President Donald Trump. About one-third of U.S. adults (36%) have a favorable view of Walz, who will introduce himself to his party when he speaks at the Democratic National Convention on Wednesday. About one-quarter (27%) have a positive opinion of Vance. Significantly more adults also have an unfavorable view of Vance than Walz, 44% to 25%.

Kadia Goba and Benjy Sarlin at Semafor:

But Walz has also faced a non-stop barrage of attacks from Republicans in the same period, led by Vance, that have drawn significant coverage. The Harris campaign had to acknowledge he misspoke years earlier about carrying weapons “in war,” which was part of a broader suite of attacks aimed at his military record, and he’s faced additional scrutiny over his 2006 campaign’s handling of an old DUI arrest. Republicans have also attacked his record as governor, especially his support for LGBTQ protections and handling of the 2020 riots in Minneapolis after George Floyd’s murder.

In short, Walz is getting good and bad press simultaneously: The survey found most voters have heard about his 20 years of a teacher, heard about (and admire) his 24 years in the Army National Guard, but also had heard that he retired before his unit deployed to Iraq, a prominent attack from Vance.

Blueprint tested several rebuttals to some of the most common criticisms of Walz and found the most effective response in each case was to quickly pivot to attacking Republicans for trying to distract from other campaign issues.

Margaret Talev at Axios:

Vice President Kamala Harris is getting a bigger boost from picking Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate than former President Trump has gotten from Ohio Sen. JD Vance, according to two new polls.

Why it matters: Running mates don't usually determine presidential elections, but this race has enough twists to test that norm.Vance and Walz, military veterans from Midwestern states who emphasize their understanding of the working class, both were tapped with an eye for their potential to balance the more coastal, elite reputations of their running mates.

The big picture: Walz outperformed Vance on a range of authenticity and compassion questions — including who better understands small-town Americans' concerns — in a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.A new Syracuse University-Ipsos poll, meanwhile, shows that Americans believe Harris' odds of winning have improved more with her selection of Walz than Trump's have improved with Vance on the ticket.
Two in three voters in the Axios Vibes survey said the vice presidential candidate is important to their vote this year. But there's a partisan gap, with 81% of Democratic voters and just 59% of Republicans saying it's important.

By the numbers: In the Axios Vibes survey, Walz outperformed Vance on four measures:"Has an authentic connection to everyday Americans" (43% to 35% overall ... 36% to 29% with independents).
  • "Understands the challenges in your community" (39% to 33% overall ... 32% to 27% with independents).
  • "Understands the issues affecting rural and small-town America" (41% to 35% overall ... 35% to 29% with independents).
  • "Feels and talks like someone from a small town" (39% to 34% overall ... 35% to 27% with independents).
Vance more than Walz was seen as supporting policies benefiting wealthy people in big cities (41% to 29% overall ... 37% to 22% with independents) and being more worried about himself than constituents (41% to 33% overall ... 37% to 25% with independents).

 

Tuesday, August 20, 2024

Harris, Justice, and Public Opinion

  Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.



Monday, August 19, 2024

Harris's Vulnerabilities on Issues

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

Kevin D. Williamson at The Dispatch writes that Harris has vulnerabilities that Trump has not yet been able to exploit effectively:

There isn’t any serious person or analysis that finds Harris to be “by far” to the left of Bernie Sanders. But, even if there were, degrees of leftness or rightness are not especially useful in prosecuting a political case against a major-party nominee. Indictments of a candidate’s support of particular bad policies or opposition to particular good policies, however, really have to be answered. Harris has taken wrong—and unpopular—positions on everything from race-based college admissions to “Medicare for All” to the First Amendment. She has a pretty bad record on Trump’s hallmark issue, immigration, but Trump and his team cannot advance the conversation past the question of whether it said “border czar” on her business card (in part because the candidate gets distracted by his need to deliver disquisitions on Hannibal Lecter). Trump could do a Buzzfeed-style listicle of Harris’ three or five worst policy positions and hammer those home in a hundred speeches. But he is too lazy to do the modest work involved.

Sunday, August 18, 2024

Third Party Slump

 David Weigel at Semafor:

“The biggest factor that was unique to this election cycle was a deep distaste of both candidates, which opened the door to elevated third-party voting even in a time of record polarization,” said Lakshya Jain, an elections analyst at Split Ticket. “Kamala Harris’ ascension seems to have completely changed this dynamic.”

Kennedy’s support took the hardest hit. Before Biden dropped out, he was polling as high as 22% in a three-candidate test. Post-switch polling has put him in the mid-single digits nationally and in swing states, at the same time that a Democratic campaign to remove him from state ballots was scoring wins. On Monday, a New York judge ordered Kennedy off the state ballot, ruling that he maintained a “sham” address in the state; Kennedy said he’d appeal and file a separate federal lawsuit, which he hoped would “preempt” ballot challenges.

Michael Scherer and  Josh Dawsey at WP:

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sought a meeting last week with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to discuss the possibility of serving in her administration, perhaps as a Cabinet secretary, if he throws his support behind her campaign and she wins, according to Kennedy campaign officials.

Harris and her advisers have not responded with an offer to meet or shown interest in the proposal, say people familiar with the conversations.

The Kennedy outreach, made through intermediaries, follows a meeting in Milwaukee last month between Kennedy and Republican nominee Donald Trump to discuss a similar policy role and endorsement that resulted in no agreement. In those discussions, Kennedy spoke about advising Trump in a second term on health and medical issues.

Saturday, August 17, 2024

It Was Pelosi All Along

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

David Remnick at The New Yorker:
Pelosi’s methods of persuasion are, it is fair to say, significantly less beastly, yet Johnson would surely appreciate her brand of Machiavellian arm-twisting. And right now, as we witness the transformative results of Joe Biden’s decision to stand aside in the 2024 election and cede the nomination to Kamala Harris, it is worth remembering Pelosi’s interview on July 10th on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Her stated reason for appearing was to stand beside, and promote, the cause of freedom in Belarus with the dissident politician Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

That’s why I went on the show,” Pelosi insisted when we spoke for The New Yorker Radio Hour. Pelosi is gifted in many things; one of them is keeping a straight face while shovelling a certain amount of barnyard material on your wingtips. She told me, still maintaining an even gaze, that she thought she might actually escape the studio without anyone asking about Biden. “I was hoping not,” she told me. “I was going to talk my way through my five minutes and get out of there.”

Sure. Pelosi went on to say that she had been “startled” by Biden’s performance in the June 27th debate with Donald Trump, that she had “never” seen him in such an alarming and confused state. “In fact, earlier in the day, when I was with the members, they were, like, Oh, how’s it going to be? ‘Trump will be so awful,’ I said. ‘Don’t worry about it. The Joe Biden of the State of the Union is going to show up. It’s going to be great.’ In fact, I didn’t even want him to be in a debate. . . . I said, [Trump’s] doggy doo-doo. You’re going to get doggy doo-doo on your shoe. It’s not a good thing. You can’t. We’re just talking shorthand here, right? You can’t do that. But [Biden] was going to do it. He felt great. And I had confidence in him. I didn’t think it wouldn’t be good. I just didn’t want him to be seen with that guy. And then that happened, and I think everybody was stunned. It was stunning.”

And so, on “Morning Joe,” when asked, inevitably, about Biden’s prickly reluctance to give up the race, Pelosi responded as if the President had not said, over and over, that he had no intention of giving in to the calls for him to step aside. “It’s up to the President to decide if he’s going to run,” she said evenly for the cameras. “We’re all encouraging him to make that decision, because time is running short. . . . He’s beloved, he’s respected, and people want him to make that decision.” And then, to make sure her audience of one got the message, she added, “I want him to do whatever he decides to do, and that’s the way it is. Whatever he decides, we go with.”

Pelosi did not deny the craft or the intent of what she had done. Countless members of the commentariat and more than a few politicians had already pressed Biden to call off his campaign, but, after Pelosi’s breakfast-time performance, something began to give way, perhaps even in the Biden household. Pelosi’s message delivery was arguably as essential to Biden’s decision to stand aside as the moment at the conclusion of the Watergate scandal when, on August 7, 1974, the Republican congressional heavies Barry Goldwater, John Rhodes, and Hugh Scott went to the White House to make it plain to Richard Nixon that he had lost all support on the Hill. On August 8th, Nixon announced that he would resign.

Without quite admitting to playing a singularly decisive role in the Biden drama—and it would be uncharacteristically vain to do so—Pelosi told me, “Here’s the thing: I’ve known Joe Biden for over forty years, since I was chair of the California Democratic Party, and I love him so much. I think he’s been, really, a fantastic President of the United States. I really wanted him to make a decision for a better campaign, because they were not facing the fact of what was happening. . . . We couldn’t see it go down the drain, because Trump was going to be President and then he was going to take the House. Imagine! Imagine how that would be! Well, we don’t have to imagine. We saw.”

...

Then Pelosi dropped her calculated reserve. “I’ve never been that impressed with his political operation,” she admitted. “They won the White House. Bravo. But my concern was: this ain’t happening, and we have to make a decision for this to happen. The President has to make the decision for that to happen. People were calling. I never called one person. I kept true to my word. Any conversation I had, it was just going to be with him. I never made one call. They said I was burning up the lines, I was talking to Chuck [Schumer]. I didn’t talk to Chuck at all.

“I never called one person, but people were calling me saying that there was a challenge there. So there had to be a change in the leadership of the campaign, or what would come next.” Her goal, she added, was simple: “That Donald Trump would never set foot in the White House again.”

To those around her who were saying her appearance on “Morning Joe” gave them the “space” to call on Biden to leave the campaign—the “permission structure,” as D.C. lingo now has it—she counselled, Wait for the NATO summit to end; no need to embarrass the President with so many foreign leaders in the country. But then, “We need the President to make the decision.”

Which is precisely what happened. On July 21st, ten days after the NATO summit ended, Biden issued a statement via social media announcing his withdrawal.

Jonathan Lemire et al. at Politico:

A senior White House official, also granted anonymity to describe private conversations, said Biden views Pelosi as “ruthless” and willing to set aside long-term relationships in order to keep her party in power — and, most importantly, to prevent Republican nominee Donald Trump from returning to the White House.
...

But Biden’s inner circle believes Pelosi was the decisive voice in pushing him out.

His allies thought that, after nearly two weeks of trying to reassure fellow Democrats, his candidacy was on track to be salvaged the morning of July 10. But that was when Pelosi made a now-infamous appearance on “Morning Joe,” repeatedly making clear that she did not support Biden continuing his candidacy. The president’s aides believe that opened the door for a host of other Democrats and donors to follow suit.

Moreover, Biden’s inner circle told him the day before he dropped out that if he persisted in the race they believed that Pelosi was going to take her misgivings public — including her belief that Trump would defeat him — which would have been deeply humiliating for a sitting president, two of the people said.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday said that Biden “respects” Pelosi and insisted that he has “no hard feelings.”

Some White House senior aides also expressed private irritation after Pelosi, in an interview last week with The New Yorker, said she was unimpressed with the Biden political operation despite its 2020 victory. She later couched those comments, saying she had “praise” for Biden and his political operation for winning the 2020 election.


 

Friday, August 16, 2024

Trump Medal

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.  And in just a few weeks, the race has changed. Trump thought the age issue would be his greatest asset.  Now that he is facing an opponent 18 years younger and increasingly showing his 78 years, it has become one of his greatest weaknesses.

Just as Republican oppo researchers were attacking Tim Walz's accounts of his military service, Trump again disrespected veterans.  Travis Gettys at Raw Story:

Donald Trump sparked an outcry from military veterans and many others by proclaiming that the civilian Presidential Medal of Freedom as "better" than the Medal of Honor for military valor.

The Republican presidential nominee praised Miriam Adelson, the widow of the late GOP megadonor Sheldon Adelson, during a speech Thursday evening at his New Jersey golf resort, where he recalled awarding her the civilian honor after the couple had poured millions of dollars into his first campaign.

“I watched Sheldon sitting so proud in the White House when we gave Miriam the Presidential Medal of Freedom," Trump said. "That’s the highest award you can get as a civilian, it’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor."

The Medal of Honor is the highest military honor bestowed for valor in combat, and it's often mistakenly called, as Trump did, the Congressional Medal of Honor.

"But civilian version, it’s actually much better because everyone [who] gets the Congressional Medal of Honor, they're soldiers," Trump continued. "They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it, and she’s a healthy, beautiful woman, and they’re rated equal, but she got the Presidential Medal of Freedom, and she got it for — and that’s through committees and everything else.”

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Outsourcing the Ground Game


Donald Trump's obsession with "election integrity" has led his team to build a network of more than 150,000 poll watchers and poll workers, while relying mostly on outside groups to connect with voters on the ground.

Why it matters: Some Republicans worry that Trump's focus on preventing a "rigged" election has hurt the party's ground game, the get-out-the-vote operations that can be crucial in an election as close as this one.Trump's "election integrity" team also has raised concerns among Democrats about potential voter intimidation at the polls. If Trump loses on Nov. 5, the election teams would be his evidence collectors for what almost certainly would be a barrage of legal challenges — and calls for state officials not to certify the election results.
The Republican campaign for president is quietly being remade by new federal guidelines that empower big-money groups and threaten to undermine party control well beyond the 2024 election.

Former President Donald J. Trump’s team has enlisted some of these groups to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors across the country — saving the campaign significant money in the process.

But the Trump campaign is making a serious gamble in doing so, betting that these outside groups, which they do not directly control, can carry out their marching orders without accountability.

This transformation is a consequence of a surprise decision by the Federal Election Commission earlier this year that allows campaigns to coordinate their canvassing efforts with outside groups like super PACs. The change means that campaigns can outsource much of their costly ground game to entities that can take unlimited donations and raise money at a much faster clip.