I usually use this blog to post snippets of news stories, survey data, and academic studies. The audience is small, but that is irrelevant because I keep the blog primarily to take notes for future research projects. If other people want to look in, great. If not, no problem. The discipline of keeping a daily blog produces a great deal of source material even if nobody else is reading.
Today, however, I want to use the blog to analyze the problem facing Democrats. They are looking at three doors, each opening up a world of danger. There is no safe path forward.
Door 1 is simple: go with Joe. The risk is not just that the damage from the June 27 debate will linger. He is already falling behind Trump, and only a flawless, energetic performance on the campaign trail could turn things around. Very unlikely. He is slipping, and he will probably have more senior moments in public between now and Election Day.
Door 2 is Kamala Harris, either by presidential endorsement or through some sort of contest. On the one hand, she is energetic and can give a rousing speech. She has unfettered access to Biden-Harris campaign money. She has undergone vetting, first through her short-lived 2020 presidential campaign and the background check preceding her nomination for vice president. On the other hand, she says goofy stuff when she goes off-script. She also has to grapple with her image as a California liberal and her nominal duty as point person on border issues, among other things.. And expect MAGA world to talk about her relationship with Willie Brown.
Door 3 is SOMEBODY ELSE. Lots of fantasy names are floating around, including Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro. One problem is that a last-minute candidate would have to build an organization and treasury from scratch and do it almost instantly. Possible, but damn hard. Another problem is that most fantasy names have undergone neither a formal background check nor an informal vetting through opposition research in a national campaign. Yes, they have won statewide. But presidential campaigns are different, with a much deeper level of scrutiny. (Remember that Tom Eagleton had won statewide in Missouri before it turned out that he had undergone electroconvulsive therapy.) Moreover, someone who emerged out of a contested convention would have to pick a running mate right away, and that person would have undergone no vetting, either. Whitmer and Shapiro might be wonderful nominees who pick wonderful running mates. But they could be disasters, too.
