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Divided We Stand

Divided We Stand
New book about the 2020 election.

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Kamala's Luck

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

A shrewd take from JVL:
Kamala Harris has a number of decisions to make, quickly.

For starters, it appears as though Harris will inherit the entire Biden 2024 campaign—the personnel, the org chart, the infrastructure, and the money.1

Harris could keep everything as-is. But she is likely to bring in her own people and place them on top of the existing structure in order to create a clear strategic vision that she herself is in sync with—and can then be pushed down the chain to the pre-existing logistical operation.

If you remember Harris’s 2019 campaign, her biggest problem was management.

Creating a presidential campaign is like building a start-up. You have to hire smartly, manage people, and husband resources while trying to create product-market fit with a short runway.

Harris failed at this task, which is why she dropped out before Iowa. Her obvious strengths as a candidate weren’t enough to overcome her weaknesses as a startup founder.

One of Harris’s many advantages in this particular moment is that she doesn’t need to manage a startup this time. She has been given the keys to a mature business. Meaning that she is freed to leverage her strengths.

And Harris’s biggest strength is what political pros refer to as “candidate quality.” She’s smart. She gives a good speech. She’s deft with questions and can relate to people. She can drive a message.

Had Joe Biden stood down in 2022 following the midterm elections, I’m not certain Kamala Harris would have won the nomination.

But this crazy moment is almost a perfect storm for her. Fate has positioned her in such a way as to minimize her biggest weaknesses and maximize her greatest strengths. She is free to be herself, without having had to fend off primary challengers. She has the Democratic party unified behind her and this time, the short runway works to her advantage.