Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. It is a fight between two very old men.
After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.
Until he stumbles again.
FLASHING RED LIGHTS, PT. 1 — The Cook Political Report yesterday moved six states away from JOE BIDEN and toward DONALD TRUMP: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada have gone from Toss Up to Lean Republican; Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District have gone from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
This morning, Cook analyst David Wasserman writes that “Biden’s post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift of the year,” with Trump leading Biden 47%-44% in their new national polling average. “Trump’s current numbers among Black and Latino voters are incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario,” he adds.
FLASHING RED LIGHTS, PT. 2 — “Biden support slips in deep blue New York: ‘We’re a battleground state now,’” by Nick Reisman: “Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago.”
‘INERTIA PREVAILS’ — Biden’s firewall is holding. For now.
Biden’s almost Trumpian tactics — lashing out at his detractors and insisting that the conversation about him stepping aside is over — appears to be working on Capitol Hill.
Most Washington Democrats are either falling in line with Biden, meekly expressing a desire to see him do more to prove his viability or saying nothing at all.
As of this morning only seven Hill Democrats are on the record calling for a new nominee, a paltry number compared to what many (including us) were expecting earlier this weekend. And at least two senior House Democrats who privately expressed a desire to see Biden exit the race over the weekend now say publicly they support him.
But while the almost Machiavellian pressure campaign has at least temporarily muzzled the Biden doubters, it has hardly alleviated their concerns: Most Democrats we’ve spoken to remain 100 percent convinced Biden will lose to Trump, and many privately want him to gracefully bow out — even some who are publicly supporting him as the nominee.
Witness the contortions of Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) who went on CNN, after reportedly making similar comments in yesterday’s caucus lunch, and declared Trump “on track, I think, to win this election — and maybe win it by a landslide and take with it the Senate and the House.” But he refused to call on Biden to step aside.
As Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.), a Biden supporter, explained to us yesterday: “In the absence of consensus, inertia prevails.”
SO WHAT HAPPENED? Put simply, Biden’s allies appeared to have outmaneuvered his skeptics. Many Hill Democrats, well-apprised sources told us, were expecting dozens of lawmakers — especially vulnerable swing-district frontliners — to come out of the woodwork and force their leaders to confront the president or his campaign.
Instead, Biden’s canny move to rally the Black and Hispanic caucuses, as well as high-profile progressives like Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.), has made members think twice about going on the record with their concerns, lawmakers and aides tell us. So, too, did the leaks of private, candid conversations from over the weekend.
As always…Unvarnished truth hurts. Even when it’s presented in such an intellectual comical manner. The facts are undeniable! @TheDemocrats @SenateDems @HouseDemocrats @dccc @DNC @POTUS @JoeBiden https://t.co/UIeZVPVkvO
— Luis Alvarado (@latinostrategy) July 10, 2024
Biden literally sent a letter to House Dems two days that said “Fuck off, I’m running, get on board.”
— Matt Glassman (@MattGlassman312) July 10, 2024
This is a shot across the bow from Pelosi. It feels like they want him either out, or running a very different, more active and engaged public campaign ASAP. https://t.co/j5ZXbq2od1
