Vance and the Past

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  And neither is the selection of J.D. Vance as its vice presidential candidate.  (Dem oppo folks are doing well.)

Alexander Nazaryan at The Daily Beast:

J.D. Vance has thoughts and opinions—and being a millennial, many of those thoughts and opinions are recorded online, where they live in perpetuity.

That wouldn’t be a problem, normally, except the 39-year-old junior senator from Ohio is the Republican nominee for vice president. He is also turning out to be a gift to Democratic opposition researchers from Santa Monica to Brooklyn.

On both substance and style, Vance is increasingly looking like a debacle. He could be the first vice presidential nominee since Sarah Palin, John McCain’s disastrous running mate in 2008, to actively harm the ticket.

In a 2021 conversation at Pacifica Christian, a private high school, Vance criticized the Sexual Revolution for “making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear,” going so far as to seemingly suggest that women should remain in abusive marriages for the sake of keeping the family intact.

It’s right there online. Has been this whole time. But only now is it making his GOP colleagues squirm. Republicans on Capitol Hill—where the self-important Vance has lost friends (if he ever made them)—are calling him Trump’s “worst choice” possible. There’s even speculation Trump could dump Vance.

Martin Pengelly at The Guardian:

Questions continued to mount about the political transformation of Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, after the release of emails from a former friend in which Vance called Trump a “morally reprehensible human being” and said: “I hate the police.”

The messages between Vance and Sofia Nelson, who sent them to the New York Times, were largely dated between 2014 and 2017. In one, Vance sent Nelson a section of Hillbilly Elegy, his bestseller about his Appalachian boyhood.

“Here’s an excerpt from my book. I send this to you not just to brag, but because I’m sure if you read it you’ll notice reference to ‘an extremely progressive lesbian’,” Vance wrote.

NEW: In 2021 Vance sent out fundraising emails that called Democrats “childless sociopaths” and in a podcast in 2020 said childless Americans, especially in leadership, are “more sociopathic” and make the country “less mentally stable.” https://t.co/SeEcAddnDa

— Andy Kaczynski (@KFILE) July 30, 2024

JD Vance claims his July 2021 comment to Tucker Carlson that "childless cat ladies" like Kamala Harris “don't really have a direct stake” in the country’s future was taken out of context.

I found him making similar comments in three more Fox interviews. https://t.co/1r8IGmUI4H

— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) July 30, 2024

 

 Robert Penn Warren, All the King's Men:

 For nothing is lost, nothing is ever lost. There is always the clue, the canceled check, the smear of lipstick, the footprint in the canna bed, the condom on the park path, the twitch in the old wound, the baby shoes dipped in bronze, the taint in the blood stream. And all times are one time, and all those dead in the past never lived before our definition gives them life, and out of the shadow their eyes implore us.

That is what all of us historical researchers believe.

And we love truth.”

Kamala Harris 2020 and 2024

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

Reid Epstein at NYT:

When she ran for president the first time, Kamala Harris darted to the left as she fought for attention from the Democratic Party’s liberal wing.

After she dropped out, social and racial justice protests swept across the country in the summer of 2020, and Ms. Harris joined other Democrats in supporting progressive ideas during what appeared to be a national realignment on criminal justice.

One presidential cycle later, with Vice President Harris less than a week into another race for the White House, video clips of her old statements and interviews are being weaponized as Republicans aim to define her as a left-wing radical who is out of step with swing voters.

Former President Donald J. Trump is calling out her past positions and statements at his rallies, and on Monday his campaign began reserving time for television advertisements that are likely to resurface videos of Ms. Harris.

Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck, CNN:

Vice President Kamala Harris voiced support for “defund the police” in a radio interview in June 2020 amidst nationwide protests for police reform, just months before denouncing the movement after she had joined the Biden presidential campaign.

Harris said in the June radio interview the movement “rightly” called out the amount of money spent on police departments instead of community services such as education, housing, and healthcare, emphasizing that more police did not equate to more public safety.

“This whole movement is about rightly saying, we need to take a look at these budgets and figure out whether it reflects the right priorities,” Harris said on a New York-based radio program “Ebro in the Morning” on June 9, 2020, adding that US cities were “militarizing police” but “defunding public schools.”

Trump Rally Prayers

 In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.   

Trump has literally claimed that God is on his side.

McKay Coppins at The Atlantic:

To understand the evolving psychology and beliefs of Trump’s religious supporters, I attempted to review every prayer offered at his campaign events since he announced in November 2022 that he would run again. Working with a researcher, I compiled 58 in total, the most recent from June 2024. The resulting document—at just over 17,000 words—makes for a strange, revealing religious text: benign in some places, blasphemous in others; contradictory and poignant and frightening and sad and, perhaps most of all, begging for exegesis.

There are many ways to parse the text. You could compare the number of times Trump’s name is mentioned (87) versus Jesus Christ’s (61). You could break down the demographics of the people leading the prayers: 45 men and 13 women; overwhelmingly evangelical, with disproportionate representation from Pentecostalism, a charismatic branch of Christianity that emphasizes supernatural faith healing and speaking in tongues. One might also be tempted to catalog the most comically incendiary lines (“Oh Lord, our Lord, we want to be awake and not woke”). But the most interesting way to look at these prayers is to examine the theological motifs that run through them.

...

At a february campaign event in North Charleston, South Carolina, Mark Burns, a televangelist in a three-piece suit, squeezed his eyes shut and lifted his right hand toward heaven. “Let us pray, because we’re fighting a demonic force,” he shouted. “We’re fighting the real enemy that comes from the gates of hell, led by one of its leaders called Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.”

Although Burns was more provocative than most, he was not alone in using the language of spiritual warfare. This is perhaps the most unnerving theme in the prayers at Trump’s rallies. One verse, from Ephesians, is quoted repeatedly: “For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”

...

It wasn’t until I came across a prayer delivered in December in Coralville, Iowa, that a more urgent question occurred to me: What will they do if their prayers are answered?

Onstage, Joel Tenney, a 27-year-old evangelist with a shiny coif of blond hair and a quavering preacher’s cadence, preceded his prayer with a short sermon for the gathered crowd of Trump supporters. “We have witnessed a sitting president weaponize the entire legal system to try and steal an election and imprison his leading opponent, Donald Trump, despite committing no crime,” Tenney began. “The corruption in Washington is a natural reflection of the spiritual state of our nation.”

For the next several minutes, Tenney hit all the familiar notes: He quoted from 2 Chronicles and Ephesians, and reminded the audience of the eternal consequences of 2024. Then he issued a warning to those who would stand in the way of God’s will being done on Election Day.

“Be afraid,” Tenney said. “For rulers do not bear the sword for no reason. They are God’s servants of wrath to bring punishment on the wrongdoer. And when Donald Trump becomes the 47th president of the United States, there will be retribution against all those who have promoted evil in this country.”

With that, he invited the audience to remove their hats, and turned his voice to God. “Lord, help us make America great again,” he prayed.

Trump on Kamala Harris: "She has no clue. She has no clue. She's evil." (Note how his audience is totally silent.) pic.twitter.com/NzYnoFUmXd

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 28, 2024

One Man, One Vote, One Time

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Media: this should be *the* A1 story. I have studied dictatorship for decades and this is it-"you won't have to vote anymore." Trump will never leave office if he wins in November. https://t.co/cLW7eQ5tyx

— Ruth Ben-Ghiat (@ruthbenghiat) July 27, 2024

OMG! The Kamala Harris campaign just released this statement in response to Donald Trump promising to end democracy and it is amazing. Share this everywhere!!! pic.twitter.com/tlBqN8pW0l

— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) July 27, 2024

Dead Heat

 Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

 John McCormick at WSJ:

The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is essentially tied, according to a new Wall Street Journal poll that shows heightened support for her among nonwhite voters and dramatically increased enthusiasm about the campaign among Democrats.

The former president leads the current vice president 49% to 47% in a two-person matchup, but that is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Trump held a six-point lead earlier this month over President Biden before he exited the race and backed Harris.

On a ballot test that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent and third-party candidates, Harris receives 45% and Trump gets 44%. Kennedy is backed by just 4% and 5% remain undecided. Biden trailed in the multicandidate contest by six points in the last poll.

Harris has made strides in reassembling the coalition that put Biden in the White House in 2020, one that had been fraying under the stress of unease about his physical and mental sharpness. Black, Latino and young voters all showed greater support for her than they did for Biden in a Journal survey taken in the days after his disastrous debate performance on June 27.

J.D. Vance is Bad News

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.  And neither is the selection of J.D. Vance as its vice presidential candidate.  (Dem oppo folks are doing well.)

Aaron Blake at WP:

Let’s first dive into the numbers, from the CNN, NPR-PBS-Marist College, Reuters-Ipsos, Quinnipiac University and Economist-YouGov polls:

• Vance’s best numbers are in the Marist poll (31 percent favorable versus 33 percent unfavorable). But in every other poll, he’s between six and nine points underwater.
• Vance appears to struggle with independent voters. In four of the five polls, his unfavorable rating with them is double digits higher than his favorable rating. (The fifth poll shows him eight points underwater.)
• He doesn’t appear to have improved his image in recent days. The Reuters-Ipsos poll showed him going from six points negative last week to seven points negative today. CNN showed him going from seven points negative last month to six points negative now. In both cases, many more voters have rendered judgments on him than before, but those reviews haven’t been positive.

Becca Wood at Yahoo:

The “childless cat ladies” of the internet aren’t letting Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, forget a past interview.

Speaking to Tucker Carlson on Fox in July 2021, Vance said the U.S. was being run by “childless cat ladies” who “force their misery on the rest of the country” and have no direct stake in the government because they don’t have kids.

Vance, who has three children, referred to Vice President Kamala Harris, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by name.

The interview resurfaced in the wake of Harris’ rise as the potential new democratic candidate for president after current president, Joe Biden, withdrew from the race.

Now, people who do not, or can not, have children are calling attention to the interview on social media.

Patrick Marley at WP:

A year before J.D. Vance was elected to the Senate, he advocated for a novel way to enhance the political strength of families — by giving parents the ability to cast tens of millions of additional votes on behalf of their children.

Vance, now the Republican nominee for vice president, in a 2021 speech called for encouraging Americans to have more babies and allowing them to more fully advocate for their children.

“When you go to the polls in this country as a parent, you should have more power,” he told the conservative Intercollegiate Studies Institute. “You should have more of an ability to speak your voice in our democratic republic than people who don’t have kids. Let’s face the consequences and the reality. If you don’t have as much of an investment in the future of this country, maybe you shouldn’t get nearly the same voice.”

Laura Field at Politico:

Vance is staunchly opposed to abortion, and has suggested that it is wrong even in cases of rape and incest. He has compared the evil of abortion to that of slavery, and opposed the Ohio ballot measure ensuring the right to abortion in 2023. He also was one of only 28 members of Congress who opposed a new HIPAA rule that would limit law enforcement’s access to women’s medical records. He has promoted Viktor Orban’s pro-natalist policies in Hungary, which offer paybacks to married couples that scale up along with the number of children (a new Hungarian Constitution that banned gay marriage went into effect in 2012, so these benefits only serve “traditional” couples). Vance opposes same-sex marriage. During his 2022 Senate campaign, he suggested the sexual revolution had made divorce too easy (people nowadays “shift spouses like they change their underwear”), arguing that people in unhappy marriages, and maybe even those in violent ones, should stay together for their children. His campaign said such an insinuation was “preposterous,” but you can watch the video yourself and be the judge.

Kamala's Luck

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

A shrewd take from JVL:

Kamala Harris has a number of decisions to make, quickly.

For starters, it appears as though Harris will inherit the entire Biden 2024 campaign—the personnel, the org chart, the infrastructure, and the money.1

Harris could keep everything as-is. But she is likely to bring in her own people and place them on top of the existing structure in order to create a clear strategic vision that she herself is in sync with—and can then be pushed down the chain to the pre-existing logistical operation.

If you remember Harris’s 2019 campaign, her biggest problem was management.

Creating a presidential campaign is like building a start-up. You have to hire smartly, manage people, and husband resources while trying to create product-market fit with a short runway.

Harris failed at this task, which is why she dropped out before Iowa. Her obvious strengths as a candidate weren’t enough to overcome her weaknesses as a startup founder.

One of Harris’s many advantages in this particular moment is that she doesn’t need to manage a startup this time. She has been given the keys to a mature business. Meaning that she is freed to leverage her strengths.

And Harris’s biggest strength is what political pros refer to as “candidate quality.” She’s smart. She gives a good speech. She’s deft with questions and can relate to people. She can drive a message.

Had Joe Biden stood down in 2022 following the midterm elections, I’m not certain Kamala Harris would have won the nomination.

But this crazy moment is almost a perfect storm for her. Fate has positioned her in such a way as to minimize her biggest weaknesses and maximize her greatest strengths. She is free to be herself, without having had to fend off primary challengers. She has the Democratic party unified behind her and this time, the short runway works to her advantage.

That Was Quick

Our most recent book is Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Less than 48 hours after Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee.

AP:

An Associated Press survey finds that Kamala Harris has secured the support of enough Democratic delegates to become her party’s nominee against Donald Trump.

The delegate survey is different from AP’s count of delegates won during the primary. The survey is an unofficial tally, as Democratic delegates are free to vote for the candidate of their choice when the party picks its new nominee.

Endorsed by Joe Biden after his decision to leave the race, Harris quickly locked up the support of her party’s donors, elected officials and other leaders. No other candidate was named by a delegate in the survey and Harris now appears to have the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates she’ll need to claim the nomination.

Lazaro Gamio et al. at NYT:

A majority of Democrats in Congress and all of the country’s Democratic governors have announced their support for Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the Democratic ticket after President Biden stepped out of the presidential race on Sunday.

 Steve Peoples at AP:

Kamala Harris is smashing fundraising records as the Democratic Party’s donors — big and small — open their wallets for the vice president in the immediate aftermath of President Joe Biden’s stunning decision to step aside.

In total, Harris’ team raised more than $81 million in the 24-hour period since Biden’s announcement, campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said Monday.

The massive haul, which includes money raised across the campaign, the Democratic National Committee and joint fundraising committees, represents the largest 24-hour sum reported by either side in the 2024 campaign. Harris’ campaign said it was the largest single-day total in U.S. history.

“The historic outpouring of support for Vice President Harris represents exactly the kind of grassroots energy and enthusiasm that wins elections,” Munoz said.

Hours earlier, Future Forward, the largest super PAC in Democratic politics, announced it had secured $150 million in commitments over the same period from donors who were “previously stalled, uncertain or uncommitted,” a senior adviser said.

 

Everything Just Changed

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. 

After Biden's bad debate performance there was off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. In the past week, many more Democrats went on the record.

Yesterday, Biden yielded to the inevitable.

 Mike Allen at Axios:

One candidate was shot in the ear — an assassin's bullet putting him inches from death. The other quarantined with COVID — then quit his campaign, reluctantly, abruptly.That was just eight days of the wildest and weirdest presidential campaign of our lifetime, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write in a Behind the Curtain column.

...

How it happened: We told you Thursday in a breaking "Behind the Curtain" column that top Democrats were privately telling us they expected President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.It happened right on schedule yesterday with a 1:46 p.m. ET tweet — one minute after a video call where he told senior staff of the White House and campaign. Harris, White House chief of staff Jeff Zients and campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon had gotten earlier heads-up calls.


The Biden campaign formally changed its name to Harris for President within hours. 

A Biden friend, pointing to the president's rage over last week's leaks, barbs and lectures from Democrats at all levels, told us: "It was fury for a while. Then he surrendered to reality. He's a professional."In the end, it was the data, including grim polling from swing states. "No one was able to produce data points that showed him winning," said a Democratic insider who has been at the center of the party's frantic conversations since Biden's debate debacle 25 days ago. "They tried everything. There was no path."

...

"The whole party is breathing a sigh of relief," the Democratic insider said.
...

President Biden quickly endorsed Vice President Harris for the nomination, as did the Clintons. But the Democratic Party is leaving open the possibility of a competitive nomination process, Mike and Jim write.Former President Obama held off on an endorsement, saying: "We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead."

Between the lines: As we told you in a column two weeks ago, Harris will be almost impossible to beat for the nomination, thanks to endorsements, money, optics and 2028 politics. Given the Democratic base, are you really going to take down the first Black American, the first South Asian American and the first woman to be elected vice president?

...

James Carville, who two weeks ago had advocated for regional town halls to help determine a nominee, now tells us it's too late for such a process. "You can just feel it: Let's go," he said. "I don't have any sense there's time or appetite."Harris immediately enjoyed "broad, swift consolidation" among major Democratic donors, who are feeling optimism for the first time in weeks, the N.Y. Times reports.

 

UPDATE: As of 9pm ET, grassroots supporters have raised $46.7 million through ActBlue following Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign launch. This has been the biggest fundraising day of the 2024 cycle. Small-dollar donors are fired up and ready to take on this election 🔥

— ActBlue (@actblue) July 22, 2024

Three Doors

I usually use this blog to post snippets of news stories, survey data, and academic studies. The audience is small, but that is irrelevant because I keep the blog primarily to take notes for future research projects. If other people want to look in, great.  If not, no problem.  The discipline of keeping a daily blog produces a great deal of source material even if nobody else is reading.

Today, however, I want to use the blog to analyze the problem facing Democrats.  They are looking at three doors, each opening up a world of danger.  There is no safe path forward.

Door 1 is simple:  go with Joe.  The risk is not just that the damage from the June 27 debate will linger. He is already falling behind Trump, and only a flawless, energetic performance on the campaign trail could turn things around.  Very unlikely.  He is slipping, and he will probably have more senior moments in public between now and Election Day.   

Door 2 is Kamala Harris, either by presidential endorsement or through some sort of contest.  On the one hand, she is energetic and can give a rousing speech. She has unfettered access to Biden-Harris campaign money.  She has undergone vetting, first through her short-lived 2020 presidential campaign and the background check preceding her nomination for vice president.  On the other hand, she says goofy stuff when she goes off-script.  She also has to grapple with her image as a California liberal and her nominal duty as point person on border issues, among other things.. And expect MAGA world to talk about her relationship with Willie Brown.

Door 3 is SOMEBODY ELSE.  Lots of fantasy names are floating around, including Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.  One problem is that a last-minute candidate would have to build an organization and treasury from scratch and do it almost instantly.  Possible, but damn hard.  Another problem is that most fantasy names have undergone neither a formal background check nor an informal vetting through opposition research in a national campaign.  Yes, they have won statewide.  But presidential campaigns are different, with a much deeper level of scrutiny. (Remember that Tom Eagleton had won statewide in Missouri before it turned out that he had undergone electroconvulsive therapy.)  Moreover, someone who emerged out of a contested convention would have to pick a running mate right away, and that person would have undergone no vetting, either. Whitmer and Shapiro might be wonderful nominees who pick wonderful running mates.  But they could be disasters, too.

An Unchanged Man

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.

Meridith McGraw et al. at Politico:

When Donald Trump emerged on stage with a bandaged ear he somberly — and emotionally — recounted how he survived an assassination attempt.

And then, he veered straight back into MAGA mode.

Over the course of a 90-plus-minute speech in Milwaukee — the longest acceptance speech by a presidential nominee in history — Trump boasted about meeting with the head of the Taliban and how he “got along very well” with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He went off on MS-13, immigration, crime declining in Venezuela by 42 percent and the media calling him a braggart. He called the streets of Washington a “killing field.” And he cracked a joke about Hannibal Lecter: “He would love to have you for dinner.”

Trump’s crowning moment — set up to be a triumphant return to center stage just five days after a bullet pierced his ear at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania — turned into a meandering speech that resembled his usual rallies with macabre descriptions of a nation in decline.

If he stopped at the 25 minute mark, it would have gone down as a brilliant convention speech and proof that he was a changed man after the assassination attempt. But he’s now just proving he hasn’t changed.

— Jonah Goldberg (@JonahDispatch) July 19, 2024

Important caveat: 

The rambling doesn’t matter. The sound bites were made. Tomorrow the clips will be Hulk Hogan intro and fist pumping 🇺🇸 glory. Shared on social to many impressionable people who don’t spend hours watching a political speech. The warrior image is cast.

— Luke Russert (@LukeRussert) July 19, 2024

Dump-Biden Momentum?

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Biden has COVID and is not looking robust:

A fragile-looking Biden was spotted slowly walking down the steps of Air Force One following his Covid diagnosis. pic.twitter.com/GcydFDAaBn

— New York Post (@nypost) July 18, 2024

Mike Allen at Axios:

In at least one conversation since the debate, Pelosi conveyed to Biden and his campaign the political peril that Democrats face if he remains atop the ticket.

Schumer had a "blunt one-on-one conversation" with Biden on Saturday, in which Schumer "forcefully made the case that it would be best if Biden bowed out of the race," ABC News' Jon Karl reported.

The intrigue: Those interventions came last week, but didn't leak out until yesterday.Late last night, The New York Times reported that Biden "has become more receptive" to hearing arguments about why he should drop out — even asking questions about how Vice President Harris could win.

The first signs of yesterday's runaway rebellion came via a statement from Rep. Adam Schiff, a top Pelosi ally poised to be the next senator from California, calling for Biden to drop out.Then came news the Democratic National Committee is delaying its plan to nominate Biden in a virtual roll call weeks before the Aug. 19 convention, following backlash from rank-and-file Democrats who want more time to address concerns about the president's age.

...

 Amid weeks of bad polling for Biden, AP-NORC dropped this bomb: 65% of Democrats believe the president should withdraw from the race and let the party pick a new nominee.The financial path forward will also be one of the key considerations Biden ponders as he remains isolated — both politically and physically.

Update on the Dump Biden Movement

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Until he stumbles again.

Theodore Schleifer at NYT:

For all their riches and ambitions, many Democratic contributors and their big-money advisers have become resigned to the notion that their influence is fairly limited, and are trying not to be naïve. A sense of powerlessness pervades.

After all, Mr. Biden is not, as one major Democratic donor put it, subject to a vote by the wealthy. And he and his team have bristled against wealthy “elites” who are trying to force him out of a Democratic nomination that he won democratically, heightening concerns from major donors who are already nervous about their efforts backfiring if they are seen as bullies.

Alex Thompson and Andrew Solender at Axios:

Since his disastrous debate last month, President Biden has embraced a laundry list of left-wing policy proposals, strong-armed the party's nomination process and still tried to limit spontaneous, unscripted moments.It's saved his candidacy — for now.

Why it matters: Biden's moves have kept top Democrats from stampeding away from him — even as many remain privately uneasy with the 81-year-old president staying at the top of the ticket and serving another term.Amid worries he could lose and drag down Democratic House and Senate candidates with him, just 20 Democrats in Congress have called on him to step aside.

Driving the news: That's partly because of promises that Biden — long a centrist Democrat — has made to his party's progressive wing.Biden said this past week that if he's re-elected, he'd call for legislation to cap landlords' ability to hike rent prices, push for a large-scale elimination of medical debt, and pursue other plans that have been applauded by progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Biden's chosen leadership at the Democratic National Committee also is pushing to use an electronic roll call to lock him in as the party's presidential nominee weeks before its convention begins Aug. 19 in Chicago.

Vance

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.

Mike Allen at Axios:

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — picked yesterday as President Trump's running-mate — could potentially extend Trumpism far into the future, leaving the White House as late as 2037 if he were to win twice on his own, Mike (in Milwaukee) and Jim write in a Behind the Curtain column.Why it matters: The freshman senator, age 39, instantly becomes the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential race, and was by far the most aggressively Trumpy of the three finalists.

Trump loved the veepstakes drama, and milked it until hours before the Republican convention opened yesterday afternoon in Milwaukee.Trump had told friends for several days that it was Vance, and people very close to Trump have been telling us for weeks that every sign pointed to Vance. But Trump is Trump, so no one wanted to go out on a limb and guarantee Vance was the pick.

Behind the scenes: With the race's new dynamics after Saturday's assassination attempt, a secret lobbying campaign continued into yesterday morning, with Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson and tech investor David Sacks all calling Trump to try to lock in Vance.It wasn't until midday yesterday that the other two runners-up, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), got left at the altar.

Carlson, who has a prime-time speaking slot at the convention, told us the logic for Vance "is that he doesn't secretly hate Trump, as all the rest of them do. He fundamentally agrees with Trump. That's precisely why neocon donors [who want more aid for Ukraine] fear him."Vance also had the most chemistry with Trump, who got to know him after Don Jr. pushed his dad to endorse Vance for Senate in 2022. Trump has genuine affection for Vance — rare for Trump, and a real change from his reasoning for picking Mike Pence in 2016.

Cannon Helps Trump

Our most recent book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and Trump's disregard for law.

Destruction of government documents is a crime.  So is the retaining classified material.

Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein at WP:

A judge on Monday dismissed the federal indictment against former president Donald Trump on charges of mishandling classified documents — his second seismic legal victory in less than a month, following a historic Supreme Court decision on immunity.

U.S. District Judge Aileen M. Cannon’s 93-page ruling that special counsel Jack Smith was improperly appointed is a triumph for Trump, even if it is eventually reversed on appeal. Trump’s lawyers have attempted long-shot argument after long-shot argument to dismiss the case before this gambit succeeded far beyond expectations. Other courts have rejected arguments similar to the one that Trump’s team made in Florida about the legality of Smith’s appointment.

The Justice Department is highly likely to appeal the decision, and the issue may eventually reach the Supreme Court. By dismissing the entire indictment, Cannon’s decision also means that the charges are dropped for Trump’s two co-defendants, Waltine “Walt” Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira.

Even if Cannon’s ruling is eventually overruled, the decision to dismiss Trump’s indictment adds to a string of legal victries for him in recent weeks, including a sweeping Supreme Court ruling July 1 that gives former presidents broad immunity for their official acts while in office.

Reactions to the Shooting

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Unfortunately, the next one will have to include a discussion of the attempted assassination of Trump.  Social media reflected the current political atmosphere.

Scott Jennings is blaming Democrats for the attack on Donald Trump on CNN. pic.twitter.com/F3FaHy3GnN

— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) July 14, 2024

NEW: Rep Lauren Boebert (R-CO) tells 9NEWS that "Joe Biden is responsible for the shooting." #copolitics pic.twitter.com/cTXLj77ITy

— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) July 14, 2024

Today is not just some isolated incident.

The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs.

That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.

— J.D. Vance (@JDVance1) July 14, 2024

President Trump is determined to save this country from the path of ruin that we are on. No politician in our country's history has ever faced these kinds of efforts to stop him.

They tried to impeach him.

They are trying to imprison him.

Now, they have tried to assassinate… pic.twitter.com/bJ23A9HTI5

— Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) July 14, 2024

Democrats and the media, YOU are responsible for the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump, death threats and attempts against me and other Republicans, and brain washing half the country with your sick violent rhetoric.

END THIS NOW!

pic.twitter.com/GOq9vAyUMA

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) July 14, 2024

Enemies List

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.  And we now know how close he came to subverting the Constitution.   

He is planning an authoritarian agenda and would take care to eliminate any internal dissent.

Kevin Manahan at NJ.com:

Former president Donald Trump — convicted in criminal court, held liable in civil courts and facing other indictments — has told supporters, “I am your retribution,” and now it appears he has a “future secretary of retribution.”

That’s how Ivan Raiklin, a retired Army Reserve lieutenant colonel and former U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency employee, bills himself, according to a report by Rawstory.com.

If Trump is re-elected, Raiklin wants to enlist so-called “constitutional” sheriffs in rural, conservative counties across the country to lock up Trump’s political enemies. He lusts for “live-streamed swatting raids” against Trump’s political enemies on his “Deep State target list.”

The report has sent shivers through those who oppose Trump’s pledge for revenge.

“This is a deadly serious report,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland) told Raw Story. “A retired U.S. military officer has drawn up a ‘Deep State target list’ of public officials he considers traitors, along with our family members and staff. His hit list is a vigilante death warrant for hundreds of Americans and a clear and present danger to the survival of American democracy and freedom.”

Rawstory says Raiklins list, which has been circulating since January, “is extensive” and “includes numerous Democratic and Republican elected officials; FBI and intelligence officials; members of the House Select January 6 Committee; U.S. Capitol Police officers and civilian employees; witnesses in Trump’s two impeachment trials and the Jan. 6 committee hearings; and journalists from publications ranging from CNN and the Washington Post to Reuters and Raw Story — all considered political enemies of Trump.

Rawstory says it won’t publish the list of specific names for fear of sparking violence against them.

The Purgatory Presser

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Until he stumbles again.

Politico Playbook:

BIDEN’S INK-BLOT TEST — It was arguably the most important news conference of Biden’s long career. Rumor had it that scores of congressional Democrats, expecting a disaster, had preemptively drafted statements calling on him to step aside as the party’s presidential candidate as soon as it ended. Some even privately hoped he would face-plant so that it could be a clean break.

Instead, Biden vaulted over the lower-than-the-Earth’s-core expectations. Now the Democratic Party’s path forward is even more uncertain than it was before Biden took the stage.

The fundamental challenge is that everyone saw a performance that seemed to reconfirm their prior beliefs about Biden.

Aides with the Biden campaign and White House were celebrating.

“He exceeded expectations. He answered really fucking hard foreign policy questions beyond my personal capacity to answer. And he also had a couple of great lines that we’re going to be able to use in the campaign,” one Biden aide told us last night. “It was important for the media, it was important for the Hill, it was important for an audience that we really need to show that we’re up to the task.”
...

“This is the worst of all worlds,” one Democratic aide texted us. It was “damaging for [Biden’s] prospects, but not so bad it [that] provides enough fodder to use this to dump him from the ticket.”

“After the first gaffe, President Biden spoke confidently on foreign policy issues with command. The problem is that he left us in purgatory,” a veteran Democratic operative told Playbook. “Candidates and campaigns are supposed to make you feel something — hope, optimism, courage — but instead most of us felt nothing after that presser. And feeling nothing is how you lose elections.”

“Biden has lowered the bar until it’s on the floor and Democrats have to decide if they’re going to go along with it,” added another. “Being able to get through a press conference and being able to beat Trump are not the same thing.”

Most Dems we spoke with last night — even those who are ready for him to depart — agree that the presser moved things in the right direction for Biden. And that while unscripted moments are the things he needs to do the most to make folks comfortable again about him as the nominee, those unscripted moments are what gives them heartburn.

For them, watching Biden make a statement — especially one in a dynamic and unscripted environment — is the political equivalent of seeing a high-wire act without a net: If they fall, it’s likely fatal; if they don’t, they’ve simply wobbled to the other side to survive one more day.

Indeed, several more congressional Democrats called on Biden to leave the race after the conference ended. Reps. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), SCOTT PETERS (D-Calif.) and ERIC SORENSON (D-Ill.) joined the chorus. But nowhere near the hyped “scores” of House members some had predicted.

Some Democrats we spoke with dreaded the likelihood that Biden aides would spin the night as a big win that showed a president in full command of his faculties. And so, the Biden detractors will regroup. Many lawmakers had drafted statements and were waiting to release them after the NATO summit and press conference wrapped up. Will they release them today?

What’s more, Democratic leaders at some point will also have to speak to Biden about the situation. How frank will they be?

“The Super Friends are assembling,” said a House Democrat who did not believe Biden’s performance yesterday changed anything. “There’s a group of people who are going to go make their case to whomever they can get to at the White House that he needs to step aside and we’re going to get our asses kicked if he doesn’t.”

In an “ideal world,” this “Super Friends” delegation, the member said, would be Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, President Pro Tempore PATTY MURRAY, House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES, speaker emerita NANCY PELOSI and JIM CLYBURN.

Flashing Red Lights

 Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun.  It is a fight between two very old men.

After Biden's bad debate performance last week, there has been off-the-record talk about replacing him on the Democratic ticket. Some Democrats have gone on the record, but some are supporting him.

Until he stumbles again.

Politico Playbook:

FLASHING RED LIGHTS, PT. 1 — The Cook Political Report yesterday moved six states away from JOE BIDEN and toward DONALD TRUMP: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada have gone from Toss Up to Lean Republican; Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District have gone from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.

This morning, Cook analyst David Wasserman writes that “Biden’s post-debate dip represents the biggest polling shift of the year,” with Trump leading Biden 47%-44% in their new national polling average. “Trump’s current numbers among Black and Latino voters are incompatible with any plausible Democratic victory scenario,” he adds.

FLASHING RED LIGHTS, PT. 2 — “Biden support slips in deep blue New York: ‘We’re a battleground state now,’” by Nick Reisman: “Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago.”

‘INERTIA PREVAILS’ — Biden’s firewall is holding. For now.

Biden’s almost Trumpian tactics — lashing out at his detractors and insisting that the conversation about him stepping aside is over — appears to be working on Capitol Hill.

Most Washington Democrats are either falling in line with Biden, meekly expressing a desire to see him do more to prove his viability or saying nothing at all.

As of this morning only seven Hill Democrats are on the record calling for a new nominee, a paltry number compared to what many (including us) were expecting earlier this weekend. And at least two senior House Democrats who privately expressed a desire to see Biden exit the race over the weekend now say publicly they support him.

But while the almost Machiavellian pressure campaign has at least temporarily muzzled the Biden doubters, it has hardly alleviated their concerns: Most Democrats we’ve spoken to remain 100 percent convinced Biden will lose to Trump, and many privately want him to gracefully bow out — even some who are publicly supporting him as the nominee.

Witness the contortions of Sen. MICHAEL BENNET (D-Colo.) who went on CNN, after reportedly making similar comments in yesterday’s caucus lunch, and declared Trump “on track, I think, to win this election — and maybe win it by a landslide and take with it the Senate and the House.” But he refused to call on Biden to step aside.

As Rep. RITCHIE TORRES (D-N.Y.), a Biden supporter, explained to us yesterday: “In the absence of consensus, inertia prevails.”

SO WHAT HAPPENED? Put simply, Biden’s allies appeared to have outmaneuvered his skeptics. Many Hill Democrats, well-apprised sources told us, were expecting dozens of lawmakers — especially vulnerable swing-district frontliners — to come out of the woodwork and force their leaders to confront the president or his campaign.

Instead, Biden’s canny move to rally the Black and Hispanic caucuses, as well as high-profile progressives like Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.), has made members think twice about going on the record with their concerns, lawmakers and aides tell us. So, too, did the leaks of private, candid conversations from over the weekend.

As always…Unvarnished truth hurts. Even when it’s presented in such an intellectual comical manner. The facts are undeniable! @TheDemocrats @SenateDems @HouseDemocrats @dccc @DNC @POTUS @JoeBiden https://t.co/UIeZVPVkvO

— Luis Alvarado (@latinostrategy) July 10, 2024

Biden literally sent a letter to House Dems two days that said “Fuck off, I’m running, get on board.”

This is a shot across the bow from Pelosi. It feels like they want him either out, or running a very different, more active and engaged public campaign ASAP. https://t.co/j5ZXbq2od1

— Matt Glassman (@MattGlassman312) July 10, 2024

Trump's Platform

Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good.

Megan Messerly, Natalie Allison, and Irie Sentner at Politico:

The committee was largely deferential to the Trump campaign’s recommendations, receiving and adopting the proposed platform by lunchtime on Monday in a vote of 84 to 18. Trump called in to the meeting and addressed the delegates by phone. A platform committee member granted anonymity to speak candidly about the proceedings said “euphoric consensus” contributed to the quick approval.

Unlike the party’s platform passed in 2016, the text does not include a 20-week federal limit on abortions or call for states to pass the Human Life Amendment, which proposes to amend the Constitution to say that life begins at conception. The text instead says that states are “free to pass laws protecting” the rights granted in the 14th Amendment.

“After 51 years, because of us, that power has been given to the States and to a vote of the People,” the language states. “We will oppose Late Term Abortion, while supporting mothers and policies that advance Prenatal Care, access to Birth Control, and IVF (fertility treatments).”

The heading for that section of the proposed platform says that Republicans will “Protect and Defend a Vote of the People, from within the States, on the Issue of Life.”

Trump didn’t just edit the platform language, but wrote some parts of the 15-page draft himself, according to a person with knowledge of his involvement. The new proposed platform is significantly shorter than the party’s current one.

Representatives from Trump’s campaign walked around the room with a “vote yes” sign as voice votes were being held, and a motion by a top anti-abortion leader to hold roll call votes failed, according to a person attending the meeting. Debate was limited to one minute per speaker. One RNC member who was present inquired about why staff of the Trump campaign and RNC were taking photographs of delegates as they voted.

Trump's influence is evident in the weird use of capital letters:

In 2016, President Donald J. Trump was elected as an unapologetic Champion of the American People. He reignited the American Spirit and called on us to renew our National Pride. His Policies spurred Historic Economic Growth, Job Creation, and a Resurgence of American Manufacturing. President Trump and the Republican Party led America out of the pessimism induced by decades of failed leadership, showing us that the American People want Greatness for our Country again