Biden still trails Trump by big margins with these voters, but he seems to be holding onto more of them in Wisconsin than in other swing states. He lags behind Trump by 13 points among White voters without degrees in Wisconsin, versus 27 points in Michigan and 21 points in Pennsylvania, according to Washington Post averages of recent polls.
Biden’s reelection odds increasingly hinge on winning all three of those states as he struggles with Black and Hispanic voters frustrated with his handling of the economy. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin each have fewer racial minorities and higher shares of White voters without degrees than other swing states.

That’s especially true in Wisconsin, where those White voters make up 58 percent of registered voters — a higher share than any other battleground state. Biden lost those voters by 14 points when he won Wisconsin in 2020, according to an average of post-election estimates.

“In order to win, Democrats have to overperform — by a lot — with White working-class voters in the state, because most voters in Wisconsin are White working-class voters,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler said. “No one who’s active in politics forgets that for a second."

The race between Biden and Trump is incredibly close, with a small number of swing voters in six battleground states — including Wisconsin — expected to decide the election.

Wisconsin Democrats attribute part of Biden’s relative strength with White voters without degrees to a rural progressive tradition that has faded but not disappeared — and part of it to tenacious organizing, including in rural areas where many of those voters live.

Biden’s campaign is investing in an unprecedented field operation in Wisconsin, with 47 coordinated campaign offices across the state — more offices than Biden has in any other battleground state and far more than Republicans have in Wisconsin — staffed by more than 100 full-time campaign workers.