Our 2020 book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Abortion was a big issue in the 2022 midterm. It will be a big issue in 2024.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans support abortion legality in all or most cases; partisans remain deeply divided.
- More than six in ten Americans (64%) say abortion should be legal in most or all cases; by contrast, 35% of Americans say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases.
- Just 9% of Americans believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases.
- Republicans and Democrats are deeply divided on abortion, with a 50-point gap between them: 86% of Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 36% of Republicans. Just 15% of Republicans believe abortion should be illegal in all cases.
- While Republican attitudes on abortion legality remain largely unchanged since 2010, Democratic support for abortion legality increased from 71% in 2010 to 86% in 2023; Support for abortion legality has also increased among independents over time, from 54% in 2010 to 67% in 2023.
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A majority of residents in most states say that abortion should be legal; in no state do more than 16% of Americans support a ban on abortion.
- A majority of residents in most states say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases; there are only five states where a minority of residents support abortion legality.
- Roughly one in ten residents in most states say abortion should be illegal in all cases. This belief is most common in Kentucky and North Dakota (both 16%).
- Majorities of residents in blue states (70%) and red states (57%) and nearly two-thirds (64%) of residents in battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
Abortion has become a more salient voting issue in the last five years; Democrats continue to prioritize abortion as a voting issue compared with Republicans, as do women and younger voters.
- Over one-third of Americans (36%) say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. In 2018, a notably lower number of Americans (21%) said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.
- Democrats (47%) are more likely than Republicans (34%) to say that they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion; in 2018, about one-fourth of both Democrats (23%) and Republicans (25%) said they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.
- Women (40%) are more likely than men (32%) to say that they would only vote for a candidate who shares their view on abortion.
- More than four in ten young Americans ages 18 to 29 (43%) say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion; 53% of Democrats 18 to 29 report that they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views, compared with 41% of Republicans in that age group.
In battleground states, Democrats and women prioritize abortion as a voting issue more than Republicans and men.
- Democrats are 12 percentage points more likely than Republicans in battleground states to say that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their abortion views (46% vs. 34%).
- Women in battleground states are 9 points more likely than men (41% vs. 32%) to say that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.
- Half of Democratic women in battleground states (50%) say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, compared with 42% of Democratic men in battleground states.
- Similarly, Republican women are more likely than Republican men in battleground states (38% vs. 30%) to say that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.
