Our latest book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. The 2024 race has begun. The Gaza war is politically dangerous for Biden. A shocking percentage of young people think that the October 7 massacre was justified. And Arab Americans in the key state of Michigan may be turning away from the president.
For the first time in decades, possibly since the anti-Vietnam War and environmental movements, the left wing has led the center of the Democratic Party in a new political direction on a major issue — one sharply critical of the Israeli government, impatient with the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and increasingly willing to use American leverage to curb Israel’s military plans.
In recent weeks, Democratic leaders have begun inching closer to the progressive view that it is against U.S. interests to continue sending unconditional U.S. military aid to Mr. Netanyahu’s government in an asymmetrical war that has killed thousands of innocent civilians in Gaza. And they have recognized that anger among Democratic voters — especially young voters — over the U.S. role in Gaza is a serious threat to Mr. Biden’s re-election that cannot be ignored.
Prevailing political patterns in Middle East sympathies remain in place this year. Republicans overwhelmingly sympathize with Israel over the Palestinians, independents tend to favor Israel, and more Democrats side with the Palestinians than Israelis. This is the case even as Democrats give Israel much higher favorable ratings than they give the Palestinian Authority. The Democrats’ movement has been recent; until 2022, Democrats were more likely to sympathize with Israel.
Among age groups, young adults are slightly more sympathetic to the Palestinians than the Israelis (after being equally divided last year), with the other groups sympathizing with Israel.
But does this sympathy translate into votes in the voting booth or on the floor?
The Biden world counterpoint comes courtesy of the recent Harvard Youth poll, which found economic issues — not the war in Gaza — dominating the list of issues that matter to young voters. (Only 2% of respondents cited the “Israel/Palestine conflict” as their top concern.) Aides also note the campaign has launched a major youth outreach effort and that “the youth vote and the student vote are not synonymous.”
Harvard polling guru JOHN DELLA VOLPE agreed that there is little “evidence that this is on its way to being a cultural phenomenon.” But, he added: “How this evolves, who knows? … Hopefully things improve. But I would not be willing to write [the protests] off right now.”
Most House Democrats supported Israel aid on Saturday, but the nay vote was higher among Dems than Reps.
GOVTRACK: H.R. 8034: Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024This was a vote to pass H.R. 8034 in the House. The federal budget process occurs in two stages: appropriations and authorizations. This is an appropriations bill, which sets overall spending limits by agency or program, typically for a single fiscal year (October 1 through September 30 of the next year).
Vote Outcome
| All Votes | Republicans | Democrats | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yea | 86% | 366 | 193 | 173 |
| Nay | 14% | 58 | 21 | 37 |
| Not Voting | 7 | 4 | 3 | |
Passed. Simple Majority Required. Source: house.gov.
