Our recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump is now under indictment. And there are signs that the tide is turning against the GOP.
Abortion has been illegal in Wisconsin since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June with its Dobbs decision. And Janet Protasiewicz, whose victory in the state Supreme Court race gave liberals a 4-3 majority, made it the fulcrum of her campaign. It was a dominant factor in her ads, and a case challenging the state’s 1849 abortion law is expected to start making its way through the Wisconsin courts next month.
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President Joe Biden narrowly won Wisconsin in 2020, but on his path to victory he captured only 14 of the state’s 72 counties, and he leaned heavily on Milwaukee and Madison.
On Tuesday, Protasiewicz carried 27 counties and grew Biden’s advantage in suburban areas around metro areas. She added Kenosha near Milwaukee. She added Columbia and Lafayette around Madison. And she picked up Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties — which include the smaller blue-collar metro areas around Oshkosh and Green Bay.
The geographic rules of American politics in 2023 are pretty simple. Democrats win urban areas by large margins. Republicans win rural areas by large margins. And the two parties fight over suburban and exurban areas. But abortion seems to have changed that calculus, at least in some states, turning suburban areas more Democratic.
That’s how Protasiewicz won Wisconsin, a consistent battleground, by 11 points.
And the GOP’s suburban abortion problems extend beyond Wisconsin.
Chinni goes on to analyze similar patterns in Michigan and Kansas.
"Wisconsin Republicans are caught in a bind: What the base wants, the majority rejects. Because they see no way out, they’re angry, and the near future seems extremely volatile," @SykesCharlie writes: https://t.co/bADc7AmdvK
— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) April 9, 2023
