Our most recent book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.
In Mississippi, Republican Tate Reeves is a strong favorite to win reelection and preserve the GOP trifecta, despite a recent Siena College poll showing a majority of voters would prefer a new governor. Democrats are optimistic that Brandon Presley, a public service commissioner and distant relative of Elvis, can keep the race close. Presley’s past electoral performance in his rural northern district is impressive, but Mississippi’s ruby-red hue will be near impossible to overcome.
Louisiana’s open race represents the most promising gubernatorial opportunity for the GOP. Two-term Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards is term limited and a number of Republicans have jumped into the. Though the state party endorsed—controversially—Attorney General Jeff Landry in November, State Treasurer John Schroder has also announced his candidacy, and several other well-known Republicans are considering campaigns as well. Regardless of the eventual Republican candidate, the GOP should be a strong favorite in a state that has continued to slip out of reach for Democrats.
Though Donald Trump won Kentucky by 26 points in 2020, the Bluegrass State is home to 2023’s most intriguing gubernatorial contest. Four years ago, Democrat Andy Beshear pulled off a surprise victory over Republican Matt Bevin. Despite a quietly successful first term, reelection will prove difficult in solidly red state.
