In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.
Ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, there was a great deal of speculation about how Hispanic citizens would vote. Some pre-election polls showed them swinging dramatically toward Republicans, perhaps even coming close to splitting their vote evenly between the two parties, which would have represented a seismic shift in American politics.
Such a massive shift did not take place—and its failure to materialize is one of the reasons that Republicans are facing disappointingly small gains in the House. But we should nevertheless note that Republicans apparently had their best year with Hispanic voters since 2004. CNN exit polls indicate that what was a 40-point Democratic margin among Hispanic voters as recently as 2018 has now shrunk by almost half, to 60-39 in favor of Democrats. Put another way, one in 10 Hispanic voters has shifted their vote from Democrats to Republicans over the last four years.
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Whereas the 328 districts without high Hispanic population saw Republicans overperform expectations by an average of 0.5 points, in the 73 high-Hispanic-population districts Republicans overperformed expectations by an average of 5.3 points. That offers a nice confirmation of what the exit polls are telling us. High-Hispanic districts have become more Republican.
