Delta Is Killing GOP Voters

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of COVID.

Predictable and predicted: the anti-vax and anti-mask movements are resulting in illness and death.

On August 10, Eleanor Clift wrote at The Daily Beast:

DeSantis was elected governor in 2018 with a margin of victory of just 0.4 percent, or 32,000 votes. Florida’s official COVID death count is now 39,695, a chilling reminder about the public health impact of DeSantis’ policies, and the fact that politics is about addition, not subtraction.

Christopher Ingraham at The Why Axis:

It’s well-known, by this point, that the Delta variant is currently hitting Republican states and counties the hardest. In the South especially, vaccination rates are low and mask use has typically been spotty, resulting in skyrocketing case and hospitalization numbers in several states.

But the picture on mortality has been less clear. Deaths lag behind hospitalizations, so the former have been slower to rise than the latter. Covid treatment has also improved since the early days of the pandemic, boosting patients’ odds of survival. And senior citizens, the group most vulnerable to the virus, have high rates of vaccination relative to other age groups.

But several months into the Delta wave and the data are clear: over the past month, people living in the most staunchly Republican counties have been three times more likely to die of Covid than those living in Democratic strongholds. While the disease doesn’t make political distinctions, Republican attitudes, conspiracy theories and policy failures have created conditions in which the Delta variant can thrive.

New on the Why Axis: August mortality data show how GOP Covid policy is killing GOP voters pic.twitter.com/QlYllzCtUL

— Christopher Ingraham (@_cingraham) August 31, 2021

Religion and the Presidential Vote

  In Defying the Odds, we talk about the social and economic divides that enabled Trump to enter the White House. In Divided We Stand, we discuss how these divides played out in 2020.  

 Justin Nortey at Pew:

Similar to past elections, religion played an important role in the 2020 U.S. presidential contest: Republican candidate Donald Trump continued to garner strong support from White evangelical Protestants, while Black Protestants and the religiously unaffiliated backed the Democratic candidate and eventual winner, President Joe Biden.

But religious identity alone does not tell the whole story. Among White Americans, worship service attendance remains highly correlated with presidential vote choice, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of 2020 validated voters.

As in previous years, voters who frequently go to religious services – defined as those who attend at least monthly – were more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in the most recent presidential election, while less frequent attenders were more likely to back the Democrat.

Anti-Vax and Anti-Mask: The Chickens Come Home to Roost

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of COVID.

Predictable and predicted: the anti-vax and anti-mask movements are resulting in death.

Outspoken anti-vax radio host Marc Bernier died after three-week battle with COVID-19: report #MarcBernier https://t.co/1nqnuIuJHc

— Raw Story (@RawStory) August 29, 2021

A Texas Army veteran died from gallstone pancreatitis—an easily treatable illness—last week after waiting 24 hours for an ICU bed to open up in the COVID-swamped state, according to reports. https://t.co/oGds6uAdWr

— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) August 27, 2021

Recall Motivation

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Democratic recall ballot returns continuing to outpace their share of the electorate, per @Political_Data tracker:

Dems comprise 46.5% of electorate and 55% of returned ballots

GOP is 24.1/23, No Party Preference at 23.3/22

— Jeremy B. White (@JeremyBWhite) August 27, 2021

Jonathan Brown at Capitol Weekly:

I’m not here to say Gavin Newsom is definitely going to prevail – though I expect so. But I want to say a few words about “motivation.”

When my daughter starts school next week, I will be waking up early to make her a lunch every day. I will do so grudgingly. My motivation will be quite low. However, during the last (remote) school year, I sampled a few school lunches. They were dreadful – so much pre-packaged crap of dubious nutritional value (pre-sliced apples in sealed cellophane, WHY?!). So I will make a sandwich and pack some snacks each day.

Similarly, is it that hard to imagine that a Democrat wouldn’t fill out and send in a short ballot with a push reminding them that it will prevent a Donald Trump acolyte from ascending to the top spot in state government? They only need to be highly motivated for a fleeting moment.

Indeed, Republican motivation is extremely high. In a recent survey, I found 91% of Republican voters were “very motivated” to vote in the recall election. However, two-thirds of Democrats also described themselves as “very motivated.” In sheer numbers, more California Democrats are “very motivated” than California Republicans.

Death in Kabul

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the role of foreign policy in the campaign.

At WP, Sean Sullivan and Anne Gearan report on the politics of the Kabul terror attack, which killed at least 13 Americans.

At least two Republican senators quickly called for Biden’s resignation or impeachment. “It’s time for accountability, starting with those whose failed planning allowed these attacks to occur,” Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) said in a statement. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) added, “It is now painfully clear he has neither the will nor capacity to lead. He must resign.”

The most vocal criticism on the Democratic side came from Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who wondered whether Taliban guards had failed by allowing the ISIS bombers get so close to the Kabul airport. “One thing is clear: We can’t trust the Taliban with Americans’ security,” Menendez said.

The killings clearly marked a pivotal moment in Biden’s presidency and an episode that is likely to be part of his legacy. Biden keeps a tally of U.S. service members who have died in Iraq and Afghanistan on a card in his breast pocket, and now, for the first time, that tally will include some who lost their lives on his watch.

Polarization and the Vax Gap

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of COVID.

Donald Trump encouraged people at his rally to get vaccinated. They booed him. https://t.co/6fgYD5pWSm

— Mother Jones (@MotherJones) August 23, 2021

Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Ben Kamisar at NBC:

Well, our most recent NBC News poll sheds some light on those question, with the survey finding that 69 percent of all adults say they’ve already been vaccinated, versus 13 percent saying they won’t get vaccinated under any circumstance.

And here are the American adults who say they’ve already been vaccinated — broken down by demographic group:

• All adults: 69 percent
• Men: 67 percent
• Women: 71 percent
• 18-34: 63 percent
• 35-49: 58 percent
• 50-64: 71 percent
• 65+: 86 percent
• Whites: 66 percent
• Blacks: 76 percent
• Latinos: 71 percent
• Urban residents: 79 percent
• Suburban residents: 67 percent
• Rural residents: 52 percent
• White evangelicals: 59 percent
• Democrats: 88 percent
• Independents: 60 percent
• Republicans: 55 percent
• Republicans who support Trump more than party: 46 percent
• Republicans who support party more than Trump: 62 percent
• Democratic Sanders-Warren voters: 88 percent
• Democratic Biden voters: 87 percent
• Biden voters in 2020 general election: 91 percent
• Trump voters in 2020 general election: 50 percent
• White non-college grads: 60 percent
• White college grads: 80 percent

Recall Money

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

 Phil Willon at LAT:

The campaign to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom has turned into a money magnet — for Gov. Gavin Newsom.

Newsom’s anti-recall campaign raked in more money in its first five months — $54 million — than the $50.2 million his 2018 gubernatorial campaign raised over four years.

Most of the money came in six- or seven-figure donations from longtime Democratic financial backers, including government employee and trade unions, as well as people and interest groups that stand to gain from a relationship with California’s governor. Even allies of the governor have expressed concern about the amount of money flooding in.

Netflix co-Chief Executive Reed Hastings, a major supporter of charter schools, topped the list of individual donors with $3 million. The California Teachers Assn., which has clashed with charter school advocates for years, gave $1.8 million.

The Service Employees International Union and its local affiliates, which together represent about 700,000 members, including government employees, donated a combined $5.5 million to Newsom’s anti-recall campaign. Others in the $1-million-and-up club include associations representing California Realtors, home builders and Democratic governors.

Republican political consultant Rob Stutzman said the political calculus for writing big checks to Newsom’s anti-recall committee is easy to understand.

Newsom still is favored to defeat the attempt to remove him from office and to be reelected to a second term in 2022. Even if he is ousted, the odds are slim that a GOP candidate who takes his place will last more than a year in office in such a heavily Democratic state, Stutzman said. No matter the outcome of the recall election, California will have a gubernatorial election next year.

GOP Trend in Special Elections

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections. 

Harry Enten at CNN:

When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July.

Whether such a shift sustains itself can't be known at this point. Things may shift back to Democrats.

It shouldn't be too surprising if the Republican overperformance does hold. Back in 2009, there was a big movement away from Democrats in special elections toward the middle of the year. This foretold Republicans doing very well in the 2010 midterms.

The one thing that is clear is that the special elections this year look nothing like they did four years ago at this point. Back then, Democrats were outperforming Hillary Clinton's performance by 14 points in the average special state legislative and federal elections.

Afghanistan Opinion

  Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the role of foreign policy in the campaign.

Public reaction to what’s happened in Afghanistan is negative but the public draws a distinction between the desire to leave Afghanistan - which most still have - and how it is handled, which 74% of Americans say has gone badly. pic.twitter.com/xPtNxc8hub

— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 22, 2021

NBC poll shows significantly larger impact from COVID than Afghanistan. CBS shows both having impact.

— David Lauter (@DavidLauter) August 22, 2021

Peter Nicholas at The Atlantic:

For all the intense focus in Washington on the Taliban’s resurgence, the broader public seems more preoccupied with other issues, like the still-raging coronavirus pandemic. Ruben Gallego, a Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq and is now a Democratic representative from Arizona, tweeted last weekend, “What I am feeling and thinking about the situation in Afghanistan, I can never fit on Twitter. But one thing that is definitely sticking out is that I haven’t gotten one constituent call about it and my district has a large veteran population.”

One former Biden campaign aide told me, “It’s tough to imagine that in the midterm elections or certainly in 2024 that the Afghanistan withdrawal will be front and center. These things often seem urgent, and the implications seem enormous in the moment. But at the end of the day, voters care about things that affect them and their families.”

GOP and COVID

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of COVID.

Margaret Talev at Axios:

Most Americans support mandating masks in schools and vaccinations to return to the workplace, and they oppose states' efforts to ban such moves, according to the latest installment of the Axios/Ipsos Coronavirus Index.

But, but, but: The survey finds the Republican base going against the grain so disproportionately that it helps explain the defiant postures of many red-state governors.

• It also showed regional differences, with Midwesterners the most critical of mandates.

What they're saying: “This is why we’re seeing so much conflict,” said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs.

• “This data shows that public policy and public health is continuously challenged by our politics today" and that "at the end of the day, it’s all-politics-is-local."

By the numbers: Overall, 69% of respondents support their local school districts requiring everyone — including teachers, students, and administrators — to wear masks in schools. 

• But that was true for just 44% of Republicans, compared with two-thirds of independents and nine in 10 Democrats.
• 64% of respondents support state and local government mandates requiring masks to be worn in all public areas.
• Just one in three Americans supports state laws prohibiting local governments from requiring masks (Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued executive orders banning mask requirements in schools).
• But that number masks a big partisan gap: 57% of Republicans support those laws, compared to just 16% of Democrats.
• There's widespread opposition across party lines to states withholding funds from schools or local governments that require masks, as DeSantis threatened to do.
• 55% of Americans support companies requiring all employees to be vaccinated to return to the workplace — that's nearly eight in 10 Democrats but just three in 10 Republicans.

Zoe Richards at The Daily Beast:

A Republican legislator in Maine who lost his wife to COVID-19 last week appeared at a rally on Tuesday that featured a GOP colleague who compared the state’s Democratic governor to a Nazi doctor who performed deadly experiments on Jews during the Holocaust.

State Rep. Chris Johansen, who emerged in the early days of the pandemic as a fierce opponent of public health-related restrictions, joined a group of lawmakers at the event in Augusta. State Rep. Heidi Sampson delivered a speech to the crowd that baselessly accused Gov. Janet Mills, who has introduced a vaccine mandate for health-care workers, of operating a government campaign to test “experimental” vaccines on unknowing citizens.

Vanessa Etienne at People:

After a month-long battle, Pressley Stutts, a Republican leader in South Carolina, has died from COVID-19 at the age of 64. Earlier this month, Stutts and his wife were rushed to the hospital due to decreasing oxygen levels. Though his wife recovered and returned home a few days later, Stutts developed pneumonia and entered the ICU, as he shared in several Facebook posts at the time. He was later placed on a ventilator. Over the course of the pandemic — including his time in the hospital — Stutts made several social media posts about COVID-19 conspiracy theories, and once called face masks an "illusion." In July, he also shared dismissive comments about the delta variant in a Facebook post, which has been flagged by the platform as false information, before criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris' vaccination efforts in South Carolina.

On August 6, Mike Stunson reported at The Fort Worth Star-Telegram:

A Texas GOP official whose social media posts include anti-mask and anti-vaccine rhetoric has died from COVID-19.

H. Scott Apley, who according to the Galveston News was a member of the Galveston County Republican Party and Dickinson City council, was 45 years old.

In his last Facebook post July 30, Apley shared a Twitter post mocking COVID-19.

And of course, Trump makes things worse. Martin Pengelly at The Guardian:

Donald Trump was due to stage a rally in Alabama on Saturday night, in a city that has declared a Covid emergency and in support of a congressman who both backed Trump’s attempt to overturn the election and this week sympathised with a man who threatened to blow up the US Capitol.

The former president will speak in Cullman, Alabama, in support of Mo Brooks’ bid for a US Senate seat.

Like other southern, Republican-run states, Alabama is struggling with a surge in cases of Covid-19 fueled by the contagious Delta variant. On Thursday, the city of Cullman declared a state of emergency.

“We want to prevent as many non-Covid related things as possible, so our hospital can use its resources to focus on the pandemic and its variants,” said Luke Satterfield, an attorney for the city, according to AL.com. “We don’t want to put any extra strain on them.”p’s rally was set to take the stage at York Farms at 7pm local time. Local media reported that organisers expected about 40,000 to attend.

Dr William Smith, chief medical officer for Cullman Regional, told CBS42: “We view this as a potential ‘super-spreader’ event, just like last week’s Rock the South that was [at the same location]. We’ve seen an increase in patients since that event last weekend and we’re concerned we could see the same impact.”

Capitol Bomb Threat

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law.  Our next book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection. The threat of violence is ongoing.

c

Preparing for trip to DC Capitol bomb suspect said Biden needed to step down and that Trump would be reinstated as President once Biden was deposed and Dems were imprisoned https://t.co/dXtXghQHO0 via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) August 19, 2021

Disgusting statement from the Republican congressman who also spoke at the Jan. 6 rally before the Capitol riot.

Mo Brooks says, regarding the man who claimed to have a bomb near the Library of Congress, that he "understand[s] citizenry anger directed at dictatorial Socialism." https://t.co/UkRDVqSC91

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 19, 2021

Larry Elder v. Women

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

Carla Marinucci at Politico:

Alexandra Datig, the former fiancee and longtime radio producer for California GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder, says she broke off an 18-month engagement with the conservative talk show host in 2015 after he waved a gun at her while high on marijuana.

Datig’s claim, which she regards as the culmination of a series of humiliating disputes that made her fearful for her safety and her ability to maintain her sobriety, comes as Elder has gained momentum in the recall to replace Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, with many observers counting him as the likeliest GOP alternative should voters decide to replace the incumbent.

But little is known about Elder’s personal life. Datig portrayed him as a marijuana user who would often become threatening or insistent with her, including in his repeated demands that she get a “Larry’s Girl” tattoo to show her devotion to him.

Andrew Kaczynski, Em Steck and Drew Myers at CNN:

"Glass ceiling? Ha! What glass ceiling? Women, women exaggerate the problem of sexism," radio host Larry Elder said in a 1996 ad for his radio show.

Then a hand slaps him across the face.

"Blacks exaggerate the significance of racism," Elder adds. Another slap. "Medicare should be abolished," he continues. Slap. With each new comment, a hand slaps Elder across his face.

"What'd I say?" a grinning Elder asks as the ad concludes.

Elder has long relished making provocative comments in his time as a radio host and columnist. But now, what he previously said could complicate the Republican's campaign to win California's September 14 recall election and unseat sitting Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. His comments about women -- which have already drawn attacks from his opponents -- are coming under scrutiny. And a CNN KFile review of his comments, dating back to 1996, show a lengthy history.

 

Why Newsom Is In Political Danger

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

If the #RecallGavinNewsom election took place today, @GavinNewsom would win. BUT he cannot rest easy. Drought could lead to wildfires, which could lead to blackouts, which could lead to riots.

— Jack Pitney (@jpitney) May 24, 2021

• CNN: Northern California wildfire triples in size, forcing thousands to evacuate
• WSJ: Wildfire Season: PG&E Blacks Out Some Customers to Reduce California Risks
• ABC30: Air Quality Alert issued for Central CA due to wildfire smoke
• CalMatters: Newsom: Statewide water restrictions possible
• SacBee: COVID cases hit all-time highs in rural California hospitals as delta variant rages
• LAT: Newsom’s other COVID-19 recall vulnerability: California’s broken unemployment system
• Santa Monica Daily Press: California spending billions to house homeless in hotels

Newsom. COVID, and the Recall

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

At Politico, Jeremy White, Carla Marinucci, and Camryn Dadey report that Newsom is zeroing in on Larry Elder and other GOP candidates for promising to reverse  COVID mandates.

A new advertisement from Team Newsom sharpens that contrast, calling the recall a “matter of life and death” and likening a “no” vote to efforts to “stop the spread.” The spot dropped on the day Newsom told a get-out-the-vote event in San Jose that backsliding on Covid orders under a Governor Elder would undercut a broader reopening effort: “How is it possible we get our kids safely back into school for in-person instruction and get our economy running again unless we use some common sense?”

A BIG SHIFT: All of this is a tonal shift from the note of Covid contrition Newsom sounded during his last State of the State speech, an event that felt as much like an informal campaign kickoff. The governor defended his record while conceding that “our progress hasn’t always felt fast enough” and “I’ve made mistakes.” In the months since, Newsom has reopened the economy to great fanfare — and then clamped down on it again as Delta cases proliferated. And all that Covid whiplash risks alienating a weary electorate, even if his Democratic allies have argued whenever possible that Newsom has done an admirable job under trying circumstances.

Recent polling suggests voters are with Newsom on this. A plurality of likely voters told the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in late July that Newsom had done an excellent or good job on the pandemic rather than a poor job. CBS News this week found 60-40 approval for Newsom’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, similar to the 61-37 level The Public Policy Institute of California found back in May. But in all cases, Republican or conservative voters have net negative views. So once again, we find ourselves repeating that this election will come down to turnout: namely, whether Newsom can rally enough left-leaning voters who appreciate his coronavirus efforts to overcome fervent Republican opposition.

The Fall of Afghanistan

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the role of foreign policy in the campaign.

How quickly can the politics around Afghanistan change? Here's a section on the RNC's website in June; click it now and you get a 404 error. (Rest of page was about Kosovo/Israel-Arab deals.) https://t.co/kDJo95QfiF pic.twitter.com/HkZok9mgJW

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 15, 2021

Trump in April: “Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1st, and we should keep as close to that schedule as possible.” https://t.co/RzbLQePTMD pic.twitter.com/KEs5x3zAJQ

— Will Steakin (@wsteaks) August 15, 2021

“I started the process, all the troops are coming home, they (Biden) couldn’t stop the process. 21 years is enough. They (Biden) couldn’t stop the process, they (Biden) wanted to but couldn’t stop the process.”

- Trump, 1 month ago pic.twitter.com/9UPPbseyiI

— david nussbaum (@theNuzzy) August 15, 2021

CA Recall, Month Out

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. It could be tight:

Among registered voters, "No" to the recall effort is 8 pts higher than "Yes" to recall Newsom.
But among likely voters - which includes those who say they'll definitely vote & express the most motivation to actually do so - the contest shrinks to a 4-point "No" edge for Newsom pic.twitter.com/7KzUTAfPw5

— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 15, 2021

For those looking to oust Newsom, there's a mix of rationales: First, unsurprisingly, a desire to oppose him, which is even higher than the partisan push to "try to get a Republican into office." And about half of them are just "trying to shake things up" pic.twitter.com/yYlzgt7lw3

— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) August 15, 2021

Newsom Recall (CBS/YouGov)

RV
Recall Y: 46
Recall N: 54

LV
Recall Y: 48
Recall N: 52

Replacement:

25% ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
23% Larry Elder
20% No one
13% Kevin Paffrath
5% Someone Else
3% Kevin Faulconer
3% Kevin Kiley
3% John Cox
2% Doug Ose
2% Caitlyn Jennerhttps://t.co/7lAWVA6k57 pic.twitter.com/HhhiQOvPoX

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) August 15, 2021

Here is his clip from a few days ago, where he said the exact opposite. Just like Dan Crenshaw and others are learning, it’s increasingly clear that to survive a GOP primary, you are forced to embrace the Big Lie, whether you believe it or not. pic.twitter.com/nb47B8mgC5

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 14, 2021

He did not bow deeply enough for the Trumpy right:

Larry Elder attempts a “mulligan” on the Biden “fair and square” comment, and still goes into the sand trap.

Rule of the game: Shouldn’t wear flip-flops while playing.https://t.co/41rXG28Ykm

— Jenna Ellis (@JennaEllisEsq) August 15, 2021

Delta

 

The Delta waves in the US and Canada, a striking contrast. Fully vaccinated of total population:
Canada 64%
US 50% pic.twitter.com/eoEjSGZ3uK

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) August 13, 2021

"Your  child will wait for another child to die."

Covid cases and hospitalizations are surging and in Dallas, there are "zero ICU beds left for children," a Dallas County judge said.

The Texas Dept. of State Health Services said the shortage of pediatric ICU beds is related to a shortage in medical staff https://t.co/Vam0h2vh7V

— CNN (@CNN) August 13, 2021

Wasserman on the Census and Redistricting

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state and congressional elections.  The 2020 campaign unfolded amid a decennial census.

Full analysis of yesterday's Census results now up for @CookPolitical subscribers: why Democrats have a lot of reasons to like the new numbers. https://t.co/ZKzm0pLHEU pic.twitter.com/IkGvLrLaOS

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 13, 2021

At Cook Political, he explains:

First, the major Latino undercount many Democrats and minority advocacy groups feared didn't materialize, throwing cold water on theories about a Trump-induced chilling effect on census participation. Hispanic residents were 18.7 percent of the U.S. population in the 2020 Census, in line with pre-census estimates and up from 16.3 percent in the 2010 Census. Non-Hispanic whites fell from 64 percent to just 57.8 percent of the population.

That means Hispanic-heavy urban areas in states like California (where Hispanics just became the state's largest ethnic group) and Texas will get to keep slightly more political power that otherwise might have gone to whiter, more Republican areas.

Second, urban areas in general fared better than expected in today's population counts. New York City counted a massive seven percent more residents than pre-census estimates suggested, and Chicago's Cook County tallied three percent more. That should marginally help Democrats draw more favorable districts in Illinois and New York to offset expected GOP gerrymandering gains in Texas, Florida, Georgia and elsewhere.

Meanwhile, most rural counties (and 52 percent of all counties) reported population losses since 2010, and many reported even weaker numbers than expected. That could make it slightly more challenging for GOP mapmakers to dilute urban and suburban Democratic votes. In Texas, for example, it could make the strategic difference between Republicans settling for a 25-13 map versus attempting a 27-11 gerrymander.

If there's a concern for Democrats, it's that the higher-than-expected share of the population reporting more than one race - in part due to changes to the questionnaire design since 2010 - could make it more difficult to draw majority-minority districts containing a majority of one race. The Census's new differential privacy procedures, which add in noise to make the data more diffuse across tracts, only compound that challenge.

Although today's data brought Democrats good news, it only offsets a small fraction of the GOP's dominance over redistricting. Republicans still hold final redistricting authority in 20 states totaling 187 districts, while Democrats control eight states totaling 75 districts. Another ten states totaling 121 districts utilize independent commissions, while control is split between the parties in six states totaling 46 districts.

Fake, Fake, Fake

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the state of the parties. The state of the GOP is not good. Trump and his minions falsely claimed that he won the election, and have kept repeating the Big Lie.

Justin Baragona at The Daily Beast

Well, it looks like the “con is winding down.”

Trump-boosting pillow salesman Mike Lindell had offered $5 million to anyone who showed up to his three-day “cyber symposium” and could disprove his claims that China hacked the 2020 presidential election via voting machines.

That offer is no longer on the table as of Wednesday evening, according to Josh Merritt, the MyPillow CEO’s lead cyber expert.

In an interview with The Washington Times on Wednesday, Merritt acknowledged that the data Lindell had long promised to reveal at this week’s symposium in South Dakota was bogus.

Devlin Barrett at WP:

During the February 2018 interview to try to determine if FBI agents had leaked him sensitive information, Giuliani’s then-law partner and counselor, Marc Mukasey, opined that the standards for truth-telling are different in electoral politics than in legal matters.

“In the heat of a political campaign, on television, I’m not saying Rudy necessarily, but everybody embellishes everything,” Mukasey said.

“Oh, you could throw a fake,” added Giuliani — who in addition to serving as mayor of New York from 1994 to 2001 also spent eight years as a federal prosecutor in the city.

“You’re under no obligation to tell the truth,” Mukasey replies, according to the transcript. To which Giuliani repeats, “You could throw a fake.”

 An agent then said, “Fake news, right?”

Mukasey replied, “Right.”

Mukasey declined to comment Wednesday. A lawyer for Giuliani did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cuomo's Fall

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. Yesterday, sexual harassment allegations forced the resignation of NY Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer at WP:

Cuomo’s decision Tuesday to step down from office was not driven by a sense of penance or contrition, aides said, but rather by a recognition that his fate was set.

After governing New York with an iron fist for more than than a decade — and amassing an enviable list of achievements along the way — he had few allies willing to stand by him. Politically isolated, he faced the prospect of being expelled from the governor’s mansion by the state legislature and banned from running for state office again.

“He didn’t want to be the second governor in the history of New York state to be impeached. And he knew he’d be impeached,” said Kathryn Wylde, the president and chief executive of the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group, who had talked to some of the governor’s staffers.

Cuomo didn’t even try to call to plead his case with Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, with some people close to him saying it would be a futile effort. Over the past week, his advisers determined that he had fewer than a dozen supporters left in the Assembly. Several thought he would certainly be convicted in the Senate and urged him to consider resigning. “We had no chance there,” said one adviser, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.

...

 “If you are going to come at the king, you best not miss. If you are going to bully everyone, you best not slip,” said Preet Bharara, a former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York who investigated Cuomo and then became an object of the governor’s angry fixation. 

Opposing the Fight Against COVID

 Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses the politics of COVID.

Twitter has suspended Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's account for one week after the company labels a tweet about Covid-19 vaccines "misleading" https://t.co/bNfPRupzzF

— CNN (@CNN) August 10, 2021

 

The FDA should not approve the covid vaccines.

There are too many reports of infection & spread of #COVID19 among vaccinated people.

These vaccines are failing & do not reduce the spread of the virus & neither do masks.

Vaccine mandates & passports violate individual freedoms.

— Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸 (@mtgreenee) August 10, 2021

No mask mandates.

No vaccine mandates.

No vaccine passports.

No COVID mandates! pic.twitter.com/QpCNQof9PQ

— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) August 10, 2021

Florida Gov. DeSantis threatens to hold school leaders’ pay if they require masks: “Financial consequences” https://t.co/i0dDsBjpsh

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) August 10, 2021

Percent fully vaxed by Trump vote 2016. (2016 because that is clearly _prior_ to any covid influence on vote.)

Don't feel like offering any commentary. The data are what they are,

3/3 pic.twitter.com/nVwElYAX8g

— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 8, 2021

Recall Notes

Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics.  Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall. 

 Mychael Schnell at The Hill:

The California Republican Party will not endorse a candidate in the state’s upcoming recall election, as 24 GOP candidates campaign to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.).

The party voted overwhelmingly on Saturday not to endorse a candidate in the September race over concerns that throwing their support behind one of the Republican candidates would divide the party and lead some voters to stay home, The Associated Press reported.

Roughly 90 percent of the delegates who were at the party’s virtual meeting supported not endorsing one candidate, the AP noted. They were reportedly planning on choosing which candidate to endorse out of a small group of four, according to Politico.

Jeremy B. White at Politico:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday that Democrats should not vote for any of the 46 candidates vying to replace him in the upcoming recall election.

Recall ballots contain two parts: an up-or-down vote on whether to retain Newsom and an open-ended question of who should replace him. Newsom said he was focused on prevailing on the first part and discouraged his base from taking sides on the second.


“We’re just focusing on ‘no’ on the recall, leaving the rest blank,” Newsom said.

The Ongoing Threat of Violence

In Defying the Odds, we discuss Trump's dishonesty and his record of disregarding the rule of law.  Our next book, Divided We Stand, looks at the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection.

Luke Barr at ABC:

The Department of Homeland Security said Friday they have observed "an increasing but modest level of activity online" by people who are calling for violence in response to baseless claims of 2020 election fraud and related to the conspiracy theory that former President Donald Trump will be reinstated.

"Some conspiracy theories associated with reinstating former President Trump have included calls for violence if desired outcomes are not realized," according to a DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis bulletin obtained by ABC News.

There is no evidence that shows there was widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.

"Over the last few days what has occurred is there's been much more public visibility, meaning the discussions and these theories have migrated away from being contained within the conspiracy and extremist online communities, to where they're being the topic of discussion on web forums, or more public web forums, and even within the sort of media ecosystem," a senior DHS official explained.

DHS says in the bulletin they do not have specific evidence there is a plot imminent.

"As public visibility of the narratives increases, we are concerned about more calls to violence. Reporting indicates that the timing for these activities may occur during August 2021, although we lack information on specific plots or planned actions," the bulletin sent to state and local partners reads.

Roger Kimball at American Greatness:

It’s all about social control, as Jim Treacher says. At some point, there will be a revolt. The longer the arbitrary insanity persists, the more violent the reaction will be. The question is whether we are at or are approaching the point of crisis. Will the voters stand for another lockdown as we approach the 2022 election? Lockdowns markedly increased the opportunities for voter fraud; 2020 showed that. That is precisely why the swamp is prepping us for another go. Let’s see if we stand by grumbling impotently or if, finally, we actually do something. I am not holding my breath.