Our new book is titled Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Among other things, it discusses state elections. The biggest off-off-year election is the CA recall.
The latest Berkeley IGS Poll finds that the proportion of voters in the overall electorate who favor recalling Governor Gavin Newsom has not changed much over the past year. At present 36% of the state’s registered voters say that if voting in the recall election they would vote Yes to recall the Governor, while 51% would vote No to retain him.However, the election will be decided not by the overall electorate, but by only those who choose to take partin the recall.And, when the voting preferences of those considered most likely to participate are examined,the outcome becomes much closer, with 47% favoring Newsom’s recall and 50% favoring his retention.The main factor contributingtothese very different distributions is that, if current levels of interest and voting intentions persist,turnout is likely to be far higher among Republicans than Democratsand No Party Preference voters. And,since nearly all Republicans favorNewsom’s ouster, a larger proportion of likely voters are voting Yes.Thehigher GOP turnout is being driven by several factors. First, Republicans express far greater interest in votingin the recall election than Democrats or No Party Preference voters. Second,there isa widespread expectation among Democrats and No Party Preference voters that Newsom will defeat the recall which may be fostering greater complacency among recall opponents than among supporters. Third, voters in most jurisdictions will see only two questions on the recall ballot, the Yes/No vote on the Governor’s recall and who should replace Newsom if he were tobe recalled. The very limited nature of the two-question ballot contrasts with other statewide elections in which voters are drawn to the polls by numerous state and local candidate and proposition races. And,when coupled with the fact that many more Democrats than Republicans reportnot intending to cast a vote onthe question of the Governor’s replacement due to an absence ofwell-known Democratic candidates,this also appears to be giving GOP voters a greater incentive to participate.
Observed IGS co-director Eric Schickler, “These results make plain that the big question surrounding the recall will be whether the Newsom campaign and Democratic activists are able to get Democratic voters more engaged and interested in voting in September.”
The poll also finds that Republican broadcaster Larry Elder currently leads in the race to replace Newsom should the Governor be recalled, although a large 40% of likely voters remain undecided. When presented with a long list of the candidates running in the replacement election, Elder is the choice of 18%, followed by fellow Republicans John Cox (10%), Kevin Faulconer(10%), and Kevin Kiley (5%). Democrat Kevin Paffrath and Republican Caitlyn Jenner each receive 3% of the votein this setting.
