Senate Democratic Candidates and the Biden Vote

 In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. 

The numbers in the Senate races will shift a bit as more votes come in, but the basic pattern will remain the same.

Senate D performance compared to Biden

Bullock +4.4
Espy +3.3
Jones +3.2
McGrath +2.0
Kelly +1.7
Harrison +0.8
Bollier +0.4
Greenfield +0.3
Peters -0.7
Ossoff -1.5
Cunningham -1.7
Hickenlooper -1.9
Hegar -2.5
Smith -3.7
Gideon -10.7

Gross: TBD

— Bill Scher (@billscher)

As you can see, ticket-splitting was minimal

Exceptions
ME (inc. R/strong brand)
MT (D who'd won statewide 3x)
AL (inc. D)
MN (Smith was bogged down by a pro-pot 3rd party candidate)
MS (don't know why!)

Everyone else within 2.5 points of Biden

These are nationalized elections

— Bill Scher (@billscher) November 7, 2020

ps://twitter.com/billscher/status/1325062909345619969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2020