Defending the House Majority

In Defying the Odds, we discuss state and congressional elections as well as the presidential race. The update looks at political and demographic trends through the 2018 midterm.  Our next book will explain 2020.

Ally Mutnick ,at Politico:

House Democrats’ flagship super PAC is booking $51 million worth of TV ads this fall, a substantial investment aimed at protecting their newly won majority.

The early reservation by House Majority PAC is spread across 29 markets and offers a window into how Democrats view the size and shape of the House battlefield this fall, with massive funds slotted for Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. HMP, which is closely allied with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), is the first of the major House party committees and outside groups to announce fall ad buys.

Yet this only represents a portion of the group’s total 2020 spending. The first wave focuses mostly on markets also hosting contested Senate and presidential races, where it is beneficial to lock in lower rates before the airwaves get crowded and pricey.

“It’s more important than ever to keep the Democratic House majority,” Abby Curran Horrell, the PAC’s executive director, said in a statement. “The 2020 election will be unlike any before it, presenting unique challenges and circumstances that make it even more important for our organization to take early steps that enable us to protect and expand the House majority.”

 Arit John at Los Angeles Times:

The coronavirus outbreak has forced political candidates to rethink the way they campaign, but Democrats are returning to a familiar strategy: focus on healthcare.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending nearly $1 million to air an ad highlighting Republican defense contractor Mike Garcia’s opposition to the Affordable Care Act ahead of a May 12 runoff to fill the remainder of former Rep. Katie Hill’s first term.

The buy — which includes cable, Spanish-language TV and digital spending — is the largest ad investment the DCCC has made in California’s 25th Congressional District this cycle. The spot began airing Saturday and will run until May 12.

Garcia is facing Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith of Santa Clarita in the runoff in the district, which covers Simi Valley, Porter Ranch, Santa Clarita, Palmdale and part of Lancaster.

Smith and Garcia placed first and second in a March 3 special election to complete Hill’s term, but neither captured more than 50% of the vote, leading to the runoff. They were also the leaders in a primary held on the same day to represent the district starting in January 2021, and will compete a second time in the November general election.

The 30-second spot doesn’t reference COVID-19 by name, but alludes to the crisis: Images of a paramedic treating a patient in an ambulance flash on screen as a narrator stresses the need for a leader who “will put our health and safety first” now “more than ever.”

“But Mike Garcia would let insurance companies deny coverage for preexisting conditions and hike up costs for life-saving drugs,” says the ad’s narrator.
Hill beat former Republican Rep. Steve Knight in the 2018 midterm election by 9 percentage points, joining a wave of women who helped Democrats win back control of the lower chamber.