California Tea Leaves

Even though the presidential candidates have largely bypassed the state, and despite the absence of party competition in the Senate race, turnout is likely to be high.  The Secretary of State has reported record-high voter registration, both in absolute numbers (19.4 million) and as a percentage of eligible citizens (78.04%).  Since July 7, Democratic registration has increased 7 percent, while Republican registration has gone up only 3 percent.

US Senate

In the Democrat-on-Democrat race for the United States Senate, Attorney General Kamala Harris will easily defeat Rep. Loretta Sanchez.  Both PPIC and Field show Harris leading by more than 20 points.

US House

Republicans will probably lose seats.  The Cook Political Report lists three GOP incumbent races as tossups:

• CA-10 Rep. Jeff Denham 
• CA-25 Rep. Steve Knight 
• CA-49 Rep. Darrell Issa 

In addition CA-21 (Rep. David Valadao) is only "leaning" Republican.

State Legislature

The Democrats will continue to control both chambers of the state Legislature.  The question is whether they can win the two-third supermajorities they need to raise taxes.  This year, Democrats held 52 Assembly seats and 26 Senate seats. If they keep their current seats, they need least two additional Assembly seats and one Senate seat to get to supermajorities. Half a dozen or so races in each chamber will decide the issue.  The 29th Senate district, spanning Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties, is especially crucial.  Indeed, it is so important that President Obama has endorsed Josh Newman, the Democratic challenger to incument Ling Ling Chang.  The president has also endorsed:

• Cheryl Cook Kallio, challenging Assemblywoman Catherine Baker (R-San Ramon) in AD 16
• Abigail Medina, who's running against Assemblyman Marc Steinorth (R-Rancho Cucamonga) in AD 40
• Al Muratsuchi, a former assemblyman in a rematch against Assemblyman David Hadley (R-Manhattan Beach) in AD 66

Ballot Measures

• Proposition 51 — School construction bonds – supported by the Chamber, opposed by Governor Brown.  It could lose. When polls show support under 50%, California ballot measures tend to go down.  PPIC has it at only 46%.
• Proposition 52 — State Fees on Hospitals. Federal Medi-Cal Matching Funds – supported by the Chamber. It will probably pass.  Field has it at 66%
• Proposition 53 — Revenue Bonds – opposed by the Chamber and Governor Brown.  There is no public polling, but Brown is worried enough that he is running ads against it.
• Proposition 55 — Tax Extension on High Wealth Individuals – opposed by the Chamber.  It will probably pass.  PPIC has it at 55% support, and Field at 59%.
• Proposition 64 — Marijuana Legalization – supported by Lieutentant Governor Newsom.  It will probably pass.  PPIC has it at 55%, Field at 57%.