The GOP's California Problem

The GOP is winning fewer and fewer House seats in California:

1994...48%
2004...38%
2014...26%

It is not just the district lines.  Look at the GOP share of the state's two-party presidential vote:

1988...51.8%
1992...41.4%
1996...42.8%
2000...43.8%
2004...45.0%
2008...37.7%
2012...38.1%

Also consider party registration;

GOP % of registration
60-day report

1992...39.6%
1996...36.8%
2000...35.0%
2004...35.0%
2008...32.3%
2012...30.1%
2016...26.8%

What underlies the GOP's problem.  Perhaps the most important reason is demographic.

Percent of Californians Identifying as Non-Hispanic "White Alone"                  

1980...66.6%
1990...57.2%
2000...46.7%
2010...40.1%
2015...38.0%

The GOP is holding its own among white voters.  Other groups, not so much.  PPIC looks at the party registration of likely voters in 2016.  Here are GOP shares:

White...39%
Asian...24%
Latino...17%
AfrAm..06%

The Democratic coalition is younger

............18-34.....35-54...55+
Dem.....21..........32........47
Rep.......09.........36.........55

To survive, the California GOP has to do a lot better among Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans, African Americans, and young people.

Donald Trump is not helping.