The GOP is winning fewer and fewer House seats in California:
1994...48%
2004...38%
2014...26%
It is not just the district lines. Look at the GOP share of the state's two-party presidential vote:
1988...51.8%
1992...41.4%
1996...42.8%
2000...43.8%
2004...45.0%
2008...37.7%
2012...38.1%
Also consider party registration;
GOP % of registration
60-day report
1992...39.6%
1996...36.8%
2000...35.0%
2004...35.0%
2008...32.3%
2012...30.1%
2016...26.8%
What underlies the GOP's problem. Perhaps the most important reason is demographic.
Percent of Californians Identifying as Non-Hispanic "White Alone"
1980...66.6%
1990...57.2%
2000...46.7%
2010...40.1%
2015...38.0%
The GOP is holding its own among white voters. Other groups, not so much. PPIC looks at the party registration of likely voters in 2016. Here are GOP shares:
White...39%
Asian...24%
Latino...17%
AfrAm..06%
The Democratic coalition is younger
............18-34.....35-54...55+
Dem.....21..........32........47
Rep.......09.........36.........55
To survive, the California GOP has to do a lot better among Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans, African Americans, and young people.
Donald Trump is not helping.
