Remarks at Alumni Weekend

Trumping Politics:  The Elections of 2016

Why are outsiders doing so well this year?

Anger

The hollowing of the middle class

From a March Pew survey:

GOP Nomination Polls and the delegate count

Democratic Nomination Polls and the delegate count

California Primary

• GOP  delegate
• The Senate race

The general election:  scenarios

Fundamentals I:  The Economy (p. 178)



What about 2016?  Ruh Roh!

Fundamentals II: Job Approval

Out of Sample

• Trump inexperience
• Trump unfavorability
• Unknown Unknowns