[Two ] demographic trends ... may most affect the political landscape in the 11 states that both parties now treat as decisive swing contests. As the charts show, all of these states are simultaneously growing more racially diverse and older. But these twin transformations are operating at very different rates in the states likely to decide the next presidential election. While diversity is the key dynamic in the swing states across the Sun Belt, aging is the defining characteristic of the Rust Belt battlegrounds.
|
State
|
White share of eligible voters, 2008
|
White share of eligible voters, 2012
|
White share of eligible voters, 2016 (projected)
|
Change 2008-2016 (points)
|
|
68.7%
|
64.9%
|
61.3%
|
-7.3%
|
|
|
Florida
|
68.9%
|
66.7%
|
64.4%
|
-4.5%
|
|
Colorado
|
78.6%
|
76.5%
|
74.4%
|
-4.3%
|
|
Virginia
|
71.6%
|
69.8%
|
68.0%
|
-3.6%
|
|
North Carolina
|
71.3%
|
69.6%
|
67.9%
|
-3.3%
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
84.7%
|
83.2%
|
81.7%
|
-3.1%
|
|
Wisconsin
|
89.2%
|
87.9%
|
86.6%
|
-2.6%
|
|
Iowa
|
93.1%
|
91.9%
|
90.7%
|
-2.4%
|
|
Michigan
|
80.7%
|
79.6%
|
78.3%
|
-2.4%
|
|
Ohio
|
85.1%
|
84.1%
|
83.0%
|
-2.1%
|
|
New Hampshire
|
95.6%
|
95.0%
|
94.4%
|
-1.2%
|
|
State
|
Share of eligible voters aged 50+, 2008
|
Share of eligible voters aged 50+, 2012
|
Share of eligible voters aged 50+, 2016 (projected)
|
Change 2008-2016 (points)
|
|
New Hampshire
|
43.5%
|
46%
|
47.1%
|
3.6%
|
|
Michigan
|
42.7%
|
44%
|
45.3%
|
2.6%
|
|
Colorado
|
38.5%
|
40%
|
40.9%
|
2.5%
|
|
Ohio
|
43.1%
|
44%
|
45.6%
|
2.5%
|
|
North Carolina
|
42.6%
|
44%
|
45.0%
|
2.4%
|
|
Wisconsin
|
42.7%
|
44%
|
45.1%
|
2.4%
|
|
Iowa
|
43.2%
|
44%
|
45.5%
|
2.3%
|
|
Florida
|
47.9%
|
49%
|
50.0%
|
2.1%
|
|
Nevada
|
40.9%
|
42%
|
42.9%
|
2.0%
|
|
Virginia
|
41.6%
|
43%
|
43.5%
|
1.9%
|
|
Pennsylvania
|
45.2%
|
46%
|
47.0%
|
1.8%
|
