The 2014 Midterm Election

The Big Picture

Historical patterns:

• Midterms are usually bad for the party holding the presidency.
• Most incumbents will win reelection.

Campaign money:

• Candidate money
• Outside money and the Democrats

Good news for the in-party:

• Unemployment is down.
• GDP is up

But the good news is not really that great:

• Labor force participation
• Middle-class wealth is shrinking

The public notices:

• Right track/Wrong track
• Obama approval

The House

• The lineup
• Safe seats:  gerrymandering, intentional and unintentional
• House generic ballot

The Senate

• Exposure
• The lineup
• Some ads

• Mark Begich (D-AK)
• Tom Cotton (R-AR)
• Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY)
• American Crossroads v. Bruce Braley (D-IA)
• Joni Ernst (R-IA)