More than seven in 10 questioned in the survey said that most members of Congress don't deserve to be re-elected, with nearly four in 10 saying even their own representative doesn't deserve a return ticket to Washington next year. Both figures are hovering around all-time highs in CNN polling.But the actual data tell a different story The "four in 10" figure refers to all Americans. Among registered voters, 37% say that their own representative does not deserve reelection while 48% say that their representative does deserve reelection. Two years ago, the CNN generic reelection figures were much worse for incumbents: 48% not deserve, 46% deserve. In the 2012 House races, however, the reelection rate was 90 percent, even after redistricting temporarily weakened the incumbency advantage for many lawmakers.
Chapter 5 of After Hope and Change discusses these races in greater detail.
