The House Democrats' Seat Pickup in Historical Perspective

The latest count puts the national popular vote at 50.8 percent for President Obama, 47.51 percent for Governor Romney, giving the president a 3.29 percent margin.  (This figure is still subject to change as the last of the late votes trickle in.)  With Rep. Allen West's concession in Florida and Rep. Mike McIntyre's apparent lead in North Carolina, House Democrats have scored a net gain of eight seats over their 2010 level.  So how does this seat change rank with other elections since 1896?  About in the middle:  17th of 30 elections.  Actually, the House Democrats' showing is better than it might look at first:  in all the elections where the winning party picked up more seats, the presidential margin was bigger.  Accordingly, 2012 does not seem to be a "coattail" election like 1920, 1932, or 1964.  Rather it was more like a "snapback" election following a  large change in the previous election (i.e., 2010).

			Margin	Seat Change
1	1932	Franklin D. Roosevelt	17.76%	93
2	1948	Harry S. Truman	4.48%	75
3	1920	Warren G. Harding	26.17%	63
4	1912	Woodrow Wilson	14.44%	62
5	1904	Theodore Roosevelt	18.83%	43
6	1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	22.58%	37
7	1980	Ronald Reagan	9.74%	34
8	1928	Herbert Hoover	17.41%	30
9	1924	Calvin Coolidge	25.22%	22
10	1952	Dwight D. Eisenhower	10.85%	22
11	1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	7.50%	21
12	2008	Barack Obama	7.27%	21
13	1984	Ronald Reagan	18.21%	16
14	1900	William McKinley	6.12%	13
15	1972	Richard Nixon	23.15%	12
16	1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	24.26%	11
17	2012	Barack Obama	3.29%	8
18	1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	9.96%	5
19	1968	Richard Nixon	0.70%	5
20	1996	Bill Clinton	8.51%	3
21	2004	George W. Bush	2.46%	3
22	1976	Jimmy Carter	2.06%	1
23	1956	Dwight D. Eisenhower	15.40%	-2
24	2000	George W. Bush	-0.51%	-2
25	1908	William H. Taft	8.53%	-3
26	1988	George H.W. Bush	7.72%	-3
27	1992	Bill Clinton	5.56%	-9
28	1960	John F. Kennedy	0.17%	-20
29	1916	Woodrow Wilson	3.12%	-21
30	1896	William McKinley	4.31%	-40