Drill, Maybe Drill

The president would be in a stronger position to attack the GOP on offshore drilling if he had not said the following a month ago:

Given our energy needs, in order to sustain economic growth and produce jobs, and keep our businesses competitive, we are going to need to harness traditional sources of fuel even as we ramp up production of new sources of renewable, homegrown energy.

So today we’re announcing the expansion of offshore oil and gas exploration, but in ways that balance the need to harness domestic energy resources and the need to protect America’s natural resources. Under the leadership of Secretary Salazar, we’ll employ new technologies that reduce the impact of oil exploration. We’ll protect areas that are vital to tourism, the environment, and our national security. And we’ll be guided not by political ideology, but by scientific evidence.

That's why my administration will consider potential areas for development in the mid and south Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, while studying and protecting sensitive areas in the Arctic.

Arizona Immigration Law

In The New Republic, William Galston writes:

Granted, in the long term, the politics of immigration will certainly work in favor of the Democrats. Look at California: Republicans have never recovered from the legislation and rhetoric of Pete Wilson's governorship. In the short term, however, the issue could push in the opposite direction. While the immigration debate of 2006-2007 divided Republicans, it also divided Democrats, and this year the issue will most hurt endangered Democrats in tough districts.

The data clearly suggest that opposition to the Arizona law is not a winning position with the general public.

From Rasmussen:

Arizona Governor Jan Brewer last week signed a new law into effect that authorizes local police to stop and verify the immigration status of anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 60% of voters nationwide favor such a law, while 31% are opposed.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans support the law along with 62% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Democratic voters are evenly divided on the measure.

At the same time, however, 58% of all voters are at least somewhat concerned that “efforts to identify and deport illegal immigrants will also end up violating the civil rights of some U.S. citizens.” That figure includes 29% who are Very Concerned about possible civil rights violations.

From Gallup:

More than three-quarters of Americans have heard about the state of Arizona's new immigration law, and of these, 51% say they favor it and 39% oppose it... Nationally, 62% of Republicans support the law (including 75% of Republicans who have heard about it). Democrats are more likely to oppose (45%) than favor (27%) the law, and a majority of Democrats familiar with the law (56%) oppose it. Independents are somewhat more likely to favor (37%) than oppose (29%) the law, with half of those who have heard about it in favor.

From Angus Reid:

Polling Data

As you may know, the Arizona Senate recently passed an immigration bill. Would you support enacting each one of these regulations included in the Arizona immigration bill in your own state?

	Support	Oppose	Not sure
Making it a crime to transport someone who is an illegal immigrant	76%	18%	6%
Requiring state and local police to determine the status of a person if there is "reasonable suspicion" that they are illegal immigrants	71%	22%	7%
Arresting people who are unable to provide documentation to prove they are in the U.S. legally	71%	23%	6%
Making it a crime to hire day labourers off the street	53%	39%	8%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,002 American adults, conducted on Apr. 22 and Apr. 23, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

CA: Poizner, Whitman, and Schwarzenegger

In a Steve Poizner ad, Rep. Tom McClintock attacks Meg Whitman as Arnold Schwarzenegger's third term:

What is remarkable is that McClintock was Schwarzenegger's running mate in 2006. Though they ran on separate ballot lines, they endorsed each other. McClintock noted his fiscal differences with Schwarzenegger but still pleaded for party unity.

Enthusiasm Gap, continued

Gallup offers a new poll on the enthusiasm gap in the generic ballot. Among those "very enthusiastic" about voting, 57 percent prefer the Republican to 37 percent who prefer the Democrat.

There is also a gender and marital gap. Here are the percentages preferring the Republican:

.......................Men.............Women

Married.........57%...............51%

Unmarried....40%...............31%

CA: DeVore's Senate Bid

Chuck DeVore has the problem of being a state legislator:

"Ballot titles matter a lot in California," DeVore told a Family Action PAC luncheon at the Pacific Club in Newport Beach. "They called me a California state assemblyman. That's like saying Chuck DeVore's a thief. My actual title is assemblyman/military reservist. In our internal polling, that change alone doubled my support, when people found out I was not merely a scum-sucking politician."

The candidate saw a glimmer of hope in a recent poll that showed him in a statistical tie with Fiorina for second place. The Capitol Weekly poll, the first independent survey to use his approved ballot title "assemblyman/military reservist," showed Campbell leading with 31%, Fiorina with 17% and DeVore with 14%, a statistical tie once the margin of error is factored in. Some 37% are undecided.

But a big problem is that he does not have enough money for TV ads.

Vote 2010

From The Washington Post:

President Obama will declare his stake in the November midterm elections for the first time on Monday as his Democratic Party announces an ambitious strategy to appeal to independent voters in its quest to maintain control of Congress.

Obama plans to issue a call-to-action video message to his supporters on Monday, the first in a series of personal efforts designed to rekindle the grass-roots magic that propelled him to the presidency in service to his party's congressional and gubernatorial candidates, Democratic officials said.

At Politico, Ben Smith notes:

Obama speaks with unusual demographic frankness about his coalition in his appeal to "young people, African-Americans, Latinos, and women who powered our victory in 2008 [to] stand together once again."

Turning out those so-called "surge" voters -- who turned out for the first time to back Obama, but who sat out gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia last year -- has become the Democrats' central pre-occupation for the midterm elections, and the new Democratic effort to nationalize the election around Obama and his agenda mark an attempt to energize those voters.

GOP Online

Politico reports on potential 2012 candidates:

President Barack Obama’s prospective 2012 Republican rivals are investing heavily in the Internet, looking to cut into what was an overwhelming advantage for Obama in the 2008 campaign.

Through the first three months of the year, the political groups started by Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee have spent a total of nearly $600,000 building their web operations, according to reports filed this month with the Federal Election Commission and the Internal Revenue Service.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0410/36300.html#ixzz0m7EdH9ed

At The Weekly Standard, Mary Katharine Ham writes of "Techno-GOP," with TX governor Rick Perry as a prime example:

On March 2, Perry beat Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison by more than 20 points with a largely paperless campaign that used no direct mail and almost no yard signs (they were available for purchase upon request). The campaign also did no robo-calls and no newspaper editorial board meetings and focused instead on Internet ads, social networking websites, and person-to-person campaigning.

Perry is just the latest Republican to make headway using technology on the campaign trail, as the party out of power finally learns its way around the Internet. Virginia governor Bob McDonnell’s campaign was designed with a nod to Barack Obama’s online successes. And Scott Brown’s insurgent campaign for the Senate in Massachusetts showed how potent technology can be for a team that’s low on money but high on energy.

Jim Gimpel made a similar point several weeks ago:

Based on the mounting evidence for the effectiveness of personal contact, they invested in building a field operation of unprecedented size that would eventually situate nearly 40,000 Perry Home Headquarters locations across the state, each charged with mobilizing a targeted number of voters. This was about ten times the number of volunteers they had activated during the 2006 campaign.

Building on what was learned from the 2008 presidential election, their contacts with supporters and prospects were routed entirely through social media, e-mail, and website updates. To be sure, the jury is still out on just how effective some of these new strategies are — anecdotes abound but experimental tests are still in the works — but some of the old strategies that have been proved ineffective are clearly gone.

Obama and Small Donors

PolitiFact reports on the president's interview with John Harwood (not on the White House website):

"In the 2008 campaign, you got a lot of money, about $1 million from employees of Goldman Sachs," Harwood said. "Your former White House counsel Greg Craig is apparently going to represent Goldman Sachs. In light of this case, do either of those things embarrass you?"

"No," Obama said. "First of all, I got a lot of money from a lot of people. And the vast majority of the money I got was from small donors all across the country. And moreover, anybody who gave me money during the course of my campaign knew that I was on record again in 2007, and 2008, pushing very strongly that we needed to reform how Wall Street did business. And so, nobody should be surprised in the position that I'm taking now because it is one that I was very clear about in the course of the campaign."

...

Obama's skill at raising money from small donors for the 2008 campaign was significant. But Obama was also skilled at raising money from large donors. His statement was, "the vast majority of the money I got was from small donors all across the country." That's not the case. Only 32 percent of his general election money came from people who gave $200 or less. We rate his statement False.

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 41

In an interview with CNBC's John Harwood, the president denied any link between the White House push for financial regulation and SEC action against Goldman Sachs:

Well, what I'd say is that I gave a speech about financial regulatory reform in 2007. Before our current crisis. In 2008, before we fully knew what this crisis was gonna be. We released financial-- reform-- as a package over a year ago. And so, we're not Johnny Come Lately's to this thing. We've been pushing this hard throughout. And the SEC is an entirely independent-- agency that-- we have no day to day control over. And they never discussed with us anything-- with respect to the charge that will be brought. So, this notion that somehow-- there would be any attempt to interfere in an independent agency is completely false.

JOHN HARWOOD: So, you say categorically no winks, no heads up in advance--

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Categorically.

JOHN HARWOOD:--no signal from anyone--

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Categorically. We-- we-- we found out about it on--CNBC.

Representative Darrell Issa (R-CA) isn't buying it.

CA: Poll Has Good News for Campbell

A new Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research survey shows Whitman leading Poizner 47-19 percent. He has brought her below fifty percent, but she still leads by more than two to one. The Senate results are good news for Campbell, as Capitol Weekly reports:

In the Senate race, former Congressman Tom Campbell was favored by 31 percent of respondents. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina was next with 17 percent, followed by Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 14 percent. More than 37 percent of those surveyed said they were still undecided.

Unlike the governor’s race, the U.S. Senate race has not seen a barrage of paid media activity. Campbell’s strength in the poll is, in part, due to his strong ballot designation as “economist/business educator,” says Probolsky.

“It also shows the strength of the Campbell name,” he said. “These types of academic, serious ballot titles seem to carry real weight with Republican voters.” But, Probolsky added, that could all be overwhelmed in the final weeks of the campaign.

Voters will head to the polls in less than six weeks, but voting will begin much sooner. Absentee ballots will be mailed to voters in less than three weeks -- a dynamic that could be critical, said Tulchin.

“In a primary, there’s higher percentage of voters who vote by mail, and Republicans vote more by mail than Democrats,” said Tulchin. “Taking those two factors into account -- you’re talking about 70-plus percent of voters getting their ballots in the mail in less than three weeks.”

CA: E-Meg Money and the Democratic Primary

In the Ventura County Star, Tim Herdt has an insight into how Meg Whitman's money influenced the Democratic gubernatorial nomination:

The size of her bank account essentially predetermined the Democratic candidate. Because he had a few million dollars in the bank and was relatively well known, Attorney General Jerry Brown was able to grab the Democratic nomination by default.

Democratic Party leaders and donors were well aware that they would have to husband all their resources for a fall campaign, so they closed their checkbooks to potential Brown challengers, who dropped out of the race one by one — John Garamendi, Gavin Newsom, Jack O’Connell, Antonio Villaraigosa. It was Meg Whitman’s shadow as much as Brown’s that chased them away.

The Hacking

AP reports:

Jurors in the trial of a former college student charged with hacking Sarah Palin’s e-mail account in 2008 heard testimony Tuesday that the accused man didn’t believe in what Palin wanted to do when she was the Republican vice presidential candidate.

Palin has been subpoenaed to testify at the trial of 22-year-old David Kernell, and Assistant U.S. Attorney Greg Weddle said in court for the first time that Palin’s husband, Todd Palin, and their daughter, Bristol, are also potential witnesses in the trial that could last a week or longer.

Dissatisfaction

The Pew Research Center reports on rising anger, distrust and dissatisfaction with government. The GOP stands to benefit:

[A]nti-government sentiment appears to be a more significant driver of possible turnout among Republicans and independents than among Democrats. Among Republican voters who are highly dissatisfied with government, 83% say they are absolutely certain to vote in the midterm elections; that compares with 67% of Republicans who express low levels of frustration with government. By contrast, there is no difference in intention to vote among Democrats who are highly frustrated with government (63%) and those who are less frustrated (64%).

Perhaps more troubling for Democrats, the link between dissatisfaction with government and voting intentions is at least as strong among independent voters. Independents who are highly dissatisfied with government are far more committed to voting this year than are independents who are less frustrated (78% vs. 58%). Overall, independents voters slightly favor the GOP candidate in their district by a 41% to 34% margin, but those who are highly dissatisfied with government favor the Republican candidate by an overwhelming 66% to 13% margin. Independents who are less dissatisfied with government favor the Democratic candidate in their district (by 49% to 24%), but are much less likely to say they are certain to vote

American Future Fund v. Campbell

The Iowa-based American Future Fund is running a mailer against Tom Campbell. The piece mentions a website called www.TomIStheTaxMan.com, which in turn features a brief clip from the Beatles song, "Tax Man." (No word on whether the group got a license to use this copyrighted material.) The American Future Fund is a 501(c)(4) and can avoid disclosing contributors.

Hispanics and Republicans

The growing Hispanic population is a political challenge for Republicans. The San Bernardino County Sun reports:

In California, it hasn't been easy for Republicans to overcome the legacy of Proposition 187, a ballot measure approved by voters in 1994 that cut off public services to illegal immigrants but was overturned by the courts.

Analysts say the harsh rhetoric used to promote the initiative turned off many Latino voters, harming the party's efforts to win their support in future elections.

Robert Rego, chairman of the San Bernardino County Republican Party, said the local GOP was successful at reaching out to Latino voters when Ronald Reagan was president. Since then, however, Republicans have missed opportunities to attract Latinos.

"We know the numbers are going down," Rego said. "We're aware of it. There is a lot of work to do."

Another Day, Another Bad Poll for Dems

Gallup reports:

Registered voters are about evenly divided over whether President Barack Obama is deserving of a second term in office. Currently, 46% say he deserves re-election and 50% say he does not. Predictably, Democrats are one-sided for Obama's re-election and Republicans are one-sided against it, while independents lean against a second Obama term.

Contract II?

House Republicans disagree on whether they should offer a "Contract with America" that offers specific legislation. Politico reports:

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor wants a document, akin to Newt Gingrich’s 1994 Contract With America, that identifies specific pieces of legislation Republicans could pass if they win back the House. He thinks Republicans should “put up or shut up,” an aide close to the process said.

So does Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, the House Republican Conference chairman. The party doesn’t need “sloganeering,” someone familiar with his thinking said, and he favors an approach that “tells people what [the party] want[s] and how you’re going to do it.”

But Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who is leading the effort to craft the document, says that including specific legislation in the contract would smack of the backroom deals the GOP accuses Democrats of making, so “you won’t see it written out.”

As the article points out, there are risks to both approaches. Get specific, and give ammunition to the other side. Stay vague, and invite mockery.

Going Rogue is Not in Vogue

Roll Call has an article on united Senate GOP opposition to Obama:

“Going rogue is not en vogue,” acknowledged one Senate GOP aide. “The view is that [President Barack] Obama’s agenda is pretty radical. So in cutting a deal with [Democrats], you’re still going to look like you’re signing onto the Obama radical left agenda.”

Indeed, Republicans appear to believe that no matter where they turn, they could get rapped for playing too nicely with Democrats.

The anti-incumbent mood of the electorate has not insulated the minority party from electoral peril, largely because of a reinvigorated conservative movement that is demanding more and more purity from its elected leaders.

Also, because Republican have the bare minimum necessary to break a filibuster, a single defection can mean defeat. Consequently, members face more pressure than they would if the minority were smaller (and Republicans were going to lose anyway) or larger (and Republicans could still win without perfect unanimity).

Echoes of 1994

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) warned against extreme rhetoric on the other side. Politico reports:

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) said he was “very, very concerned and disappointed” by Minneapolis radio host Chris Baker, who spoke at the rally last week alongside the two Republicans, rallying up the crowd by calling Democrats in Washington “lying, thieving ... bunch of commies.”

“I don’t think that’s very useful, not only do I not think it’s useful, I think it creates an atmosphere and a debate that is neither constructive and can sometimes be dangerous,” Hoyer said at his weekly meeting with reporters.

Hoyer's attack echoes Democratic themes from 1994:

On KMOX radio on June 24, President Clinton said: "I don't suppose there's any public figure that's ever been subject to any more violent, personal attacks than I have, at least in modern history, anybody's who's been President."

In Detroit on August 6, 1994, he said: "The violent, extremist interests in this country that are trying to keep health care out of the reach of ordinary American working people are a disgrace to the American dream."

Grand New Money

At The Weekly Standard, Fred Barnes writes of new developments on the GOP side:

What McCain-Feingold did was ban large donations of “soft money” to the Republican and Democratic national committees. But the money didn’t dry up. For Democrats, it moved to independent organizations, like MoveOn.org, with no limits on fundraising. Now, at long last, Republicans have started groups of their own:

• American Crossroads. It aims to do for Republican candidates what MoveOn, the AFL-CIO, the Service Employees International Union, and Moving America Forward have done for Democrats for several cycles. The group was founded after donors to Republican and conservative causes were consulted to see if they were ready to make big contributions. The conclusion: They are. AC expects to raise around $50 million this year. It began operations last week. Its leader is Steve Law, a former deputy secretary of labor and a little-known but talented political strategist.

• American Action Network. This is a think tank founded two months ago and modeled after the Center for American Progress, which produces position papers and policy arguments for Democrats. It is run by former Republican senator Norm Coleman of Minnesota and fundraiser Fred Malek. AAN has a policy arm and an “action” unit run by Rob Collins, former chief of staff for House Republican whip Eric Cantor.

• Resurgent Republic. Founded last year, it is a Republican copy of Democracy Corps, the respected polling and research outfit run by Democrats Stanley Greenberg, James Carville, and Bob Shrum. RR is the creation of Whit Ayres, a leading Republican pollster, and Ed Gillespie, former Republican national chairman and a White House adviser to President George W. Bush. It does research, surveys, and focus groups to test issues and aid Republican candidates and officeholders.

• Republican State Leadership Committee. Gillespie recently became chairman of the freshly invigorated RSLC. Its aim is to support state legislative candidates, capture control of legislatures, and shape congressional redistricting based on the 2010 census in favor of Republicans. Its counterpart is the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. RSLC’s fundraising goal in 2010 is $40 million.

Republicans and conservatives have a sad history with independent expenditure organizations. They’ve launched many of them in the past, only to see them go out of business after one election. This time, the four groups were conceived as permanent fixtures in politics.

Why no link for American Crossroads? A Washington Post article supplies a clue:

American Crossroads is "an independent, national grassroots political organization whose mission is to speak out in support of conservative issues and candidates across America," according to documents filed with the Internal Revenue Service. The group has already received commitments for more than $30 million in donations from wealthy contributors, and plans to spend more than $50 million on advocacy ads and other efforts aimed at influencing the November elections, according to Dyke and others.

Because it is organized as a so-called 527 group, American Crossroads is not governed by limits imposed by the Federal Election Commission and -- under an appeals court ruling last month -- is free to collect as much money as it wants from wealthy donors. Rick Hasen, an election law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, said the evidence suggests that American Crossroads will appeal primarily to large-scale donors rather than grass-roots contributors. The group's IRS form lists "no@email" as its e-mail address.

"Supposedly they've collected $30 million in promised money with no Web site and before they even really exist," Hasen said. "This is not based on mass appeal; it's a different model."

Party Like It's 2006 (or 1994)

According to The Washington Post, Rep. Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA), lead House candidate recruiter for his party is trying to learn from White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.

[He] he admits to reading -- and rereading -- "The Thumpin', " a book that recounts how Emanuel, as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, helped the party prevail in the 2006 elections.

"I'm looking for ideas," said McCarthy, who credits Emanuel with finding the right candidates to run in key races four years ago. "It doesn't have to be from one party or the other."

He is also adapting an idea from 1994.

Now party leaders have assigned McCarthy another key role: framing the House GOP's agenda for the fall. Republican strategists privately say they will take an 80 percent/20 percent approach to the campaign season, spending the majority of their time attacking congressional Democrats and President Obama. But McCarthy will help craft the message that Republicans will deliver to voters about what they will do if they actually win control of the House. He has dubbed the project the "Commitment to America," echoing the 1994 "Contract With America" that many Republican candidates used as a basis for their campaigns.

While not criticizing the original Contract, McCarthy says he wants the current document to emerge from the party's grass roots rather than be written by party leaders in Washington. In an effort likely to start this summer, Republicans will use the Internet and other forums to engage in a listening tour, allowing the public, particularly conservatives, to offer input on the GOP's agenda.

CA: Gubernatorial Candidates and Their Stories

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Meg Whitman's team is trying to learn from other CEOs who sought political office:

The failed California political campaigns of Northwest Airlines' Al Checchi, energy executive Michael Huffington and tech entrepreneur Steve Westly are a reminder, Whitman's senior strategist Mike Murphy said, that "there have been a lot of wealthy people and entrepreneurs who have run for office, ... and the conventional wisdom is that wealthy candidates don't do well."

But Whitman ranks among an elite class of political candidates like [Michael] Bloomberg and [George] Romney, who were "high-level CEOs who have a real story with a real company, who are big and respected in their peer group - people who tend to be innovators," Murphy said.

Meanwhile, Tony Quinn goes after Steve Poizner:

Consider his latest. In an effort to brand himself the “true conservative” in the race, Poizner has evoked Tom McClintock in a new radio ad and web posting. It encourages California Republicans to support him because McClintock does.

Tom McClintock may be the single biggest loser in California political history. No other major party candidate has lost so regularly every time he has presented himself to the voters in a statewide election. Look at the record: in 1994, a grand GOP landslide year, McClintock was defeated for state controller. In 2002, a good GOP year nationally, McClintock again was defeated for controller. In 2003, he garnered exactly 14 percent running for governor in the Davis recall. And in 2006, he managed a fourth loss, running for lieutenant governor. With this record Poizner thinks voters should let McClintock pick the GOP gubernatorial contender.

CA Primary: Independents' Day?

In California, voters to decline to state a party preference may nevertheless vote in party primaries. Ken McLaughlin of the San Jose Mercury News reports on a possible impact on the GOP races for governor and senator:

Historically, California's independent voters don't swing primary elections. But with Boxer and Jerry Brown, the presumed Democratic candidate for governor, essentially running unopposed in the primary, Republican strategists are preparing for an influx of independent voters since the GOP primary is the only game in town for those who want their vote to make a difference in the top races in June.

The independents could be key in the U.S. Senate race in which Republicans Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are running neck and neck in the polls. Additionally, Meg Whitman, the GOP front-runner in the gubernatorial primary, is expected to target independents now to try to lock up their votes through the fall through a direct mail campaign that encourages independents to request a Republican mail-in ballot or pick one up at the polls.

California Attack Ad

The Sacramento Bee fact-checks a Steve Poizner attack on Meg Whitman:

TEXT: "Is Meg Whitman your kind of Republican? She supports Obama's amnesty for illegal aliens. Like Schwarzenegger, will continue taxpayer-funded benefits to illegals. A skyrocketing cost under Obamacare. For 28 years Whitman refused to vote Republican. But she contributed to, and campaigned, for Barbara Boxer. Like Boxer, Whitman supports taxpayer-funded abortion. Whitman even supported the disastrous bank bailout. After Arnold, don't we deserve a Republican?"

ANALYSIS: It's true that Whitman supported the bank bailout and contributed to Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer. Just about everything else in the ad is either misleading or simply false

Besides questions about the ad's accuracy, the implicit criticism of Schwarzenegger is striking. An ad in a Republican primary campaign attacks a Republican candidate by likening her to the state's Republican governor. But the approach makes sense in light of a recent Field Poll showing that just 28 percent of Republicans approve of Schwarzenegger's performance.

Political Acid Rain

Bad poll numbers keep dropping on Democrats like political acid rain. Gallup finds:

Americans' favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in a late March USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18-year history of this measure. Favorable impressions of the Republican Party are now at 42%, thus closing the gap between the two parties' images that has prevailed for the past four years.

Gallup last measured party images in late August/early September of last year. At that point, the Democratic Party enjoyed an 11-point favorable image advantage over the Republican Party. Now, the favorable ratings of the two parties are essentially tied.

The images of the two major parties have particular significance in a midterm election year. For example, the favorable rating of the Democratic Party exceeded that of the Republican Party by 52% to 37% just prior to the 2006 midterm elections, in which the Democrats gained 31 House seats.

These data are particularly troubling for DCCC chairman Van Hollen. As explained in yesterday's post, his strategy hinges on the GOP's poor image.

Meanwhile, Fox News finds that the president's job approval is underwater: 43 percent approve to 48 percent disapprove. Republicans have a 43-39 percent edge in the generic ballot. And 39 percent of Republicans are "extremely interested" in the November election, compared with 24 percent of Democrats.

Democratic Strategy in 2010

Republicans lead in the generic congressional ballot, but Chris Van Hollen, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, tells Newsweek that Democrats have a strategy for victory:

He explained that in '94, voters saw the Republicans as a viable alternative. This time, the Democratic strategy is to get people to focus on what it would mean if they were to hand Congress back to the Republicans. The Republican brand is still in the doghouse with the voters. And running on repealing health-care reform is not a winning strategy as people become familiar with the bill's benefits. Van Hollen characterized Republicans as "copilots with the insurance companies." Initial reports are positive from Democratic members at home for spring break in their districts. "It's not like people are all of a sudden converts," says Van Hollen. They want to know what's in the bill, and how it affects them and their families. "They're uncertain about the bill, but they like what they see."

Democratic Fundraising

Polls favor Republicans at the moment, but fundraising figures favor Democrats. The Washington Post reports:

The Republican Party's strategy since early last year of lock-step opposition to the Obama administration's major legislative initiatives has proved to be less bankable than some party leaders may have anticipated.

Eight months before congressional elections, House and Senate Democratic candidates lead in nearly every important campaign fundraising category. Democratic House lawmakers appear likely to reverse their seven-cycle record of being outspent by House Republicans, according to recent finance reports.

But one cautionary note for Democrats: the last time the mean expenditure for Democratic House candidates exceeded the mean GOP expenditure was ... 1994, the year the GOP took control of the House. See data here.

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 40

The Media Research Center offers the full transcript of the president's recent interview with Harry Smith. Apparently, the complete text is available nowhere else on the free Internet. The full Lauer interview text still remains unavailable on the free Internet.

The New York Times has published excerpts of its interview with the president on nuclear weapons. The president was understandably cautious:

• "Rather than speculate, let’s say what we know."
• "I’m not going to parse that right now."
• "I’m not going to speculate on Israeli decision-making."
• "I’m not going to parse these, parse words here."
• "I’m not going to — - I’m not going to talk about the details of Pakistan’s nuclear ——"
• "I’ll leave it up to my team to brief you in terms of some of those commitments, some of which may not be announced until next week when the summit actually takes place."

Taking Tea

The "tea party" movement is not so far out of the mainstream, as two recent polls suggest. Rasmussen finds:

On major issues, 48% of voters say that the average Tea Party member is closer to their views than President Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 44% hold the opposite view and believe the president’s views are closer to their own.

Gallup finds:

Tea Party supporters skew right politically; but demographically, they are generally representative of the public at large. That's the finding of a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 26-28, in which 28% of U.S. adults call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement.Tea Party supporters are decidedly Republican and conservative in their leanings. Also, compared with average Americans, supporters are slightly more likely to be male and less likely to be lower-income.In several other respects, however -- their age, educational background, employment status, and race -- Tea Partiers are quite representative of the public at large.

CA: A Poll on Health and Politics

A Los Angeles Times/USC poll shows that Californians seem to be outliers in the health care debate, showing support for a measure that gets opposition elsewhere.

The poll also had some findings about decline-to-state voters:

In the race for senator, they were with Democrat Barbara Boxer, a political figure whom many of them grew up with and who shares their social profile.

In the race for governor, they were inclined toward Republican Meg Whitman, whose ads -- which do not mention her party and are big on efficiency and shaking up the status quo -- appeal to their secular political views. The Democrat in the race, Jerry Brown, will turn 72 this week and left office before many of the nonpartisans were either born or living here. Thirty-nine percent couldn't identify him, far more than Democrats or Republicans.

(Questionnaire here)

Bad Numbers for Dems Continue

The 2010 midterm is still several months away, and much could happen (.e.g., a quick economic turnaround, a foreign policy triumph) that could help the Democrats. Still the downpour of bad numbers continues.

From CBS:

Last week, President Obama signed historic health care reform legislation into law -- but his legislative success doesn't seem to have helped his image with the American public.

The latest CBS News Poll, conducted between March 29 and April 1, found Americans unhappier than ever with Mr. Obama's handling of health care - and still worried about the state of the economy.

President Obama's overall job approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 44 percent, down five points from late March, just before the health bill's passage in the House of Representatives. It's down 24 points since his all-time high last April. Forty-one percent of those polled said they disapproved of the president's performance.

More from CBS, on the health bill:

Fifty-three percent of Americans say they disapprove of the new reforms, including 39 percent who say they disapprove strongly. In the days before the bill passed the House, 37 percent said they approved and 48 percent disapproved.

Republicans and independents remain opposed to the reforms, and support has dropped some among Democrats. Now 52 percent of Democrats approve of the new reforms, a drop from 60 percent just before the bill was passed by Congress.

From Gallup:

Americans' views of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are not fundamentally changed after the passage of healthcare reform. Though more Americans now have an opinion of her, both her favorable and her unfavorable ratings are up from the last reading, to 36% and 54%, respectively. The currently net-negative view of Pelosi from the March 26-28 USA Today/Gallup poll stands in stark contrast to opinions of her as she became speaker of the House in January 2007. At that time, twice as many Americans viewed her favorably (44%) as unfavorably (22%).

Filling Gaps in the White House Website, Part 39

Harry Smith of CBS interviewed the president. At the moment, no full transcript is available on the free Internet. A partial transcript is here. The video is below:


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Data Still Challenging for Democrats

USA Today reports:

Americans anxious about unemployment and the economy increasingly blame President Obama for hard times, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, amid signs of turbulence in November's midterm elections.

Last week's jubilant signing of the health care overhaul, Obama's signature domestic initiative, seems to have given the president little boost. Instead, his standing on four personal qualities has sagged, and 50% of those surveyed say he doesn't deserve re-election.

Gallup reports:

Registered voters now say they prefer the Republican to the Democratic candidate in their district by 47% to 44% in the midterm congressional elections, the first time the GOP has led in 2010 election preferences since Gallup began weekly tracking of these in March.