Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments -- now including a war in the Middle East.
Sam Sutton and Megan Messerly at POLITICO:
Donald Trump won reelection on the promise of restoring the economy and eliminating illegal immigration.
But in the last week, both issues have threatened to turn into liabilities: A stagnant labor market and soaring gas prices amid the Iran conflict are hammering the economy, and the ouster of Kristi Noem from the Department of Homeland Security has cast new light on the administration’s increasingly unpopular immigration agenda. The economic backdrop has grown ominous — Wall Street analysts are warning that surging oil prices could lead to stagflation — and the blitzkrieg of bad news has jeopardized the GOP’s ability to keep voters focused on Trump administration policies that were designed to help with the rising cost of living.
“If you combine an economy that people don’t like with a prolonged war that you know nobody in his base believes they voted for, that’s a toxic problem,” said one Trump ally granted anonymity to speak freely. While Trump isn’t on the ballot this year, his party needs the president’s poll numbers to improve to keep the House and Senate.
“Don’t drag this war out,” the person said. “That’s my best advice for the administration. The country is in no mood for a prolonged war.”
The Iran conflict has put immense upward pressure on oil and gas –- prices at the pump have climbed by more than 11 percent in a week. Now, with employers shedding payroll and Trump pressing reset on who’s leading his immigration agenda, the president is on the backfoot on the two issues he needs to own for his party to win the midterms.
The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, a sign that the job market continues to struggle in nearly every sector.
The hiring numbers, reported Friday by the Labor Department, fell far short of January’s gain of 126,000 jobs. They were worse than the gain of 50,000 jobs that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see.
The unemployment rate was 4.4%.
The labor market slowed markedly last year, with the U.S. adding the fewest jobs outside of a recession since 2003. That was in part due to the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal workforce through a combination of layoffs and voluntary buyouts, but it also reflected the cautious approach to hiring that many businesses adopted to combat uncertainty about tariffs and other policy measures. Expectations that artificial intelligence could reduce staffing needs might have further cut into hiring plans.
Despite some high-profile announcements, the overall level of layoffs remains low. But businesses are limiting the number of new workers they take on. Moreover, job growth was highly uneven, with the healthcare and social-assistance sectors driving gains over the past year, and most other sectors shedding jobs.
