Farm Belt Woes in a Midterm Election Year

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Mike Allen at Axios:

 The big picture: Mark Mueller — a northeast Iowa farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association — tells Axios that the current landscape is tougher than at any time since the 1980s farm crisis, when interest rates soared and exports plunged, triggering agricultural bank failures.Bankruptcies are rising. Lenders are becoming more reluctant to loan to farmers. "There's going to be fewer farmers next year than this year," Mueller says.

Farmers are grappling with a confluence of forces:

• Skyrocketing energy prices triggered by the Iran war. Diesel is up 60% from last year.
• Spiking fertilizer prices and shortages after Iran blocked shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. 70% of farmers say they can't afford the fertilizer they need.
• Disrupted export markets tied to President Trump's tariffs and Chinese import restrictions.
• Global drought and other weather pressures.

Several states with a high concentration of agricultural jobs have competitive Senate elections.  There is precedent.  In 1986, Robert Shogan wrote at LAT:

The farms and small towns of this region have traditionally been the GOP’s electoral backbone and its ideological heart, giving life to the party’s ingrained conservative ethic of hard work and self-reliance. Yet the farm economy on which much of the Midwest depends is undergoing a dramatic, apparently continuing decline. And in many places, Republican candidates are in jeopardy in this fall’s elections--a development that poses new dangers to GOP hopes of achieving majority status.

And even if many individual Republican officeholders survive on Election Day, there are indications that the farm crisis has cost the GOP a historically important opportunity to expand on its Reagan-era gains by taking some of the shine off Republicanism. In Iowa, for example, Republican Sen. Charles E. Grassley says that without the farm recession, “the Republicans would have a landslide victory in Iowa this fall. With it, there are major problems.”

Prat Videos in LA Mayor Race

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

pic.twitter.com/YPrZIS0Mp1

— Spencer Pratt (@spencerpratt) May 12, 2026

Angela Yang at NBC:

Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt isn’t a superhero.

But a slew of recent viral AI-generated videos portray him as Los Angeles’ lone savior — helping thrust his mayoral campaign against Mayor Karen Bass and City Council member Nithya Raman into the spotlight in recent weeks.

Many of the videos, created by filmmaker Charlie Curran, cast Pratt in cinematic, hero-style scenarios: battling Bass in a lightsaber duel while California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris scheme behind the scenes or appearing as a Batman-like figure opposite a Joker-esque Bass. The posts have been viewed millions of times on social media.

Pratt has denied involvement, calling the clips “fan-made” in a since-deleted Instagram video. He has reposted several of them on X while sharing his own “man-made” campaign videos that feature video of his wife, fellow “The Hills” alum Heidi Pratt, and their son navigating life after their house burned down in the Palisades Fire.

The Batman video is a ripoff of a 2025 anti-Trump video::

 

🇺🇸🍾 MAGA BALLROOM 2028 - You are invited to the grand opening of the Beautiful Ballroom. A new chapter. An AI experiment #maga #democracy pic.twitter.com/ShN1XoQ9C6

— Ari K (@arikuschnir) August 6, 2025

Buying Influencers

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Lia Russell at the Sacramento Bee:

 Isaiah “Zay Dante” Washington normally posts about pop culture and sports to his 1.8 million TikTok followers as @zayydante. His most viral videos include skits about dueling Drake and Kendrick Lamar tracks and parodies amplifying more serious lyrical messages in popular party music. 

In March, he briefly pivoted by interviewing governor candidate Tom Steyer, asking the billionaire climate change activist to square his populist platform with his wealth and how he intended to fight his fellow patricians knowing “how capitalism has scorned young people.” 

Steyer’s campaign paid Washington $10,000 to post to Instagram, YouTube and TikTok under his former handle @relatableisaiah, which now links to @zayydante, per campaign expenditures. According to a strategy memo obtained by The Sacramento Bee, Steyer’s campaign has approached other content creators to boost him online for $10 per video, with more promised if they reach a certain threshold of views. 

...

“Many voters are critical of Tom Steyer because of his billionaire status, lack of experience and previous investments. Rather than pretending that these things don’t exist, acknowledge and relate to voters’ concerns and explain why you still believe Steyer is the strongest candidate despite them,” the Steyer memo read. It asks creators to post three to four videos weekly without mentioning him or the governor’s race. “

This content should still be related to policies he supports, for instance, videos about abolishing ICE, taxing the rich, AI regulation, climate change, free universal education, ending corporate influence in politics, etc. This will help your content reach more audiences and build audience trust,” the memo said.

The memo instructs creators who sign on to make new social media accounts under usernames that reflect their names or a nickname, avoiding brands, random numbers or anything that looks like spam. They then upload them for approval to the app SideShift, which recruits creators to make content for companies like the Kalshi prediction market, Paramount and the Wasserman Group.

Coming to Democratic Attack Ads Near You...

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Despite gerrymandering wins, things look bad for the GOP in part because the Iran War has gone badly.  Because of the war, the economy is foundering.

Allen Smith at NBC:

President Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he is not weighing the economic burden of the Iran war on everyday Americans when negotiating a deal with the country’s leadership.

Speaking on the White House South Lawn before departing for a diplomatic trip to China, Trump was asked to what extent “Americans’ financial situations” were motivating him to make a deal with Iran.

“Not even a little bit,” Trump replied. “The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran — they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing — we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.”

Ariel Edwards-Levy at CNN:

A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds that 77% – including a majority of Republicans – say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. Roughly two-thirds of Americans say that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country. And Trump’s approval rating stands at 30% on the economy, a career low.

 Zachary Basu at Axios:

The big picture: The affordability crisis that fueled Trump's return to power has become a five-alarm threat to his presidency — even as GDP growth, fueled largely by the AI boom, remains strong on paper.

1. Prices are surging: Inflation spiked to 3.8% in April as the Iran war pushed the national average price of gas above $4.50 a gallon.Economists fear the energy shock is beginning to ripple through the broader economy, pushing up the cost of groceries, airfare, electricity and other essentials Americans rely on every day.

2. Paychecks are shrinking: Tuesday's inflation report showed that prices are outpacing wages for the first time in three years, erasing gains in real purchasing power.American households have absorbed a rise of nearly 30% in consumer prices since the pandemic — a cumulative toll that has never fully healed, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

3. Debt is mounting: Americans are increasingly leaning on credit cards and loans to absorb rising costs, with consumer borrowing posting its biggest monthly jump in March since late 2022.The personal savings rate fell to 3.6% in March, its lowest level since 2022, as lower-income households burn through savings to cover essentials.

4. Confidence is collapsing: Consumer sentiment has cratered to record lows as Americans grow pessimistic about the economy and their own financial futures.A new YouGov/Economist poll found that 59% say the economy is getting worse, while just 15% say it's improving. More than two-thirds of Americans say the country feels "out of control."

5. Main Street is souring: The National Federation of Independent Business says optimism around future business conditions and expansion plans has fallen to its lowest level since before Trump's reelection.

The Akin Ploy in the LA Mayor Race

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. In the 2012 Missouri  Senate race, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill ran ads during the GOP primary campaign saying that Todd Akin was "too conservative."  The idea of the "attack ad" was to drive GOP voters to Akin, her weakest potential foe.  It worked.  Other campaigns have tried variations of the "pick your opponent" ploy.  And it has happened in 2025 and 2026.

Ha! This ad is designed to actually HELP Spencer Pratt consolidate conservative votes and make the top two in the primary, pushing Raman (the lefty Bass fears) into third place. #Garvey https://t.co/JOffW61lnq

— Mike Murphy (@murphymike) May 10, 2026

 

Consumer Sentiment Darkens

 Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections. Despite gerrymandering wins, things look bad for the GOP in part because the Iran War has gone badly.

Jeff Cox at CNBC:

Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

The school’s closely watched Survey of Consumers posted a 48.2 preliminary reading, down 3.2% from April’s prior record swoon and off 7.7% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 49.7.

Inflation fears were the primary driver of the continued trend lower in consumer attitudes.

The trend, which also saw the current conditions index tumble 9%, is “owing to a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said.

One-third of respondents mentioned gas prices as the biggest cause of concern. However, another one-third also cited tariffs — both connected to President Donald Trump, who launched an attack on Iran in late February and announced an aggressive slate of tariffs in April 2025.

“Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump,” Hsu said. “Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.

World War G: Republicans Score Wins in VA and TN

Our most recent book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.

Sabrina Moreno at Axios:

The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of the state's redistricting referendum, which voters narrowly approved last month.

Why it matters: The ruling upends one of the most closely watched redistricting fights in the country.It follows months of legal challenges over whether the referendum was unconstitutional.

The big picture: The decision effectively blocks Democrats from redrawing congressional maps mid-decade.That's after the state spent $5.2 million to pay for the special election, and outside groups raised nearly $100 million to sway voters.

The new map would have been in effect for the November midterms and was expected to shift the state's congressional split from 6-5 favoring Democrats to 10-1.

 Katherine Chui and Emily Cochrane at NYT:

When the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act of 1965 last week, Republicans saw new political opportunities across the South. Congressional districts that were considered strongholds for Democrats, often with majority Black populations, could be redrawn for the first time in decades.

Among Southern states, Tennessee was the first to redo its map, which Gov. Bill Lee signed into law on Thursday. The new map breaks the Ninth Congressional District — a longtime Democratic base encompassing Memphis — into three Republican-leaning districts.

The new map divides areas of Memphis where most of the population is Black among three districts with overwhelmingly white populations, eliminating the state’s sole majority Black district in the process.