Bubble Boy

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.

Jonathan Lemire at The Atlantic:

Every president, of course, deals with being in a bubble, distanced by the demands on his time and the extraordinary security concerns that come with the office. But in his return to the presidency this year, Trump has seldom ventured across the country to anywhere other than his own clubs. He also inhabits something of a news silo, watching far-right cable channels such as One America News and Newsmax along with Fox News. Even his social-media consumption has become narrower: Instead of being on the app formerly known as Twitter, where he’d occasionally encounter contrary views, he now posts solely on Truth Social, which he owns and where he is surrounded by sycophants. And his own White House staff, this time largely populated by true believers and yes-men (and a few yes-women), only adds to the echo chamber.

...

“People voted for him to lower prices, to bring manufacturing back, to stand up to those taking advantage of them,” a close Trump ally told me on the condition of anonymity so as not to antagonize the president. “They didn’t vote for him to build a damn gilded ballroom. He’s not hearing them.”

The Cabinet makes the bubble thicker and darker.  Jack Blanchard and Dash Burns at Politico:

SHOW TIME: It’s a strange place, Washington in 2025, but rarely stranger than when the president assembles his Cabinet for the TV cameras. This town is well acquainted with long, pointless meetings packed full of boastful claims, but these truly bizarre White House events stand out even in such a crowded field.

So once again this morning, we’ll see some of America’s most successful business leaders, politicians, war veterans and legal minds crowd into a room at the White House to pay homage to their boss.

In case you weren’t watching: At the last meeting in October, we were treated to Marco Rubio — a two-term United States senator — telling Trump that no president in modern history could have pulled off a ceasefire deal in the Middle East. Pete Hegseth, a proud war veteran, told Trump it was “a personal honor” to “witness the way you lead.” Doug Burgum — a billionaire businessman and former state governor — told the president he’d delivered “a masterclass in peace through strength.” The previous meeting in August went even further, dragging on for more than three hours as Trump’s team took lengthy turns to out-do one another. Does anyone actually talk to their boss like this?

It’s not entirely clear what the purpose of all this actually is. No other democracy in the Western world showcases its officials paying homage like this to their leader. And how many people are even watching a three-hour Cabinet meeting on live TV? But beyond the wild claims and the flattery, we should actually get some interesting moments today — not least because this will likely be the first public outing for Hegseth since that Washington Post story on Caribbean missile strikes was published Friday afternoon.

 

Cui Bono?

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments. Its corruption is unprecedented.  Qatar's gift of a jet is just one example. His memecoin is another. Its corruption is unprecedented.  Qatar's gift of a jet is just one example. His memecoin is another. The Ukraine sellout is a third.

Tom Burgis at The Guardian:

The Trumps’ income in the first half of this year increased 17-fold, from $51m 12 months earlier to $864m, Reuters calculates. Of that, more than 90% came not from real estate but from cryptocurrency. The Trumps’ representatives have questioned those numbers but it is clear that this new frontier is proving remarkably lucrative for them.

When Trump launched World Liberty Financial two months before his re-election, he claimed it would help make “America the crypto capital of the world”. Three of his sons – Don Jr and Eric along with Barron, aged 19, net worth about $150m – are named as co-founders, as was Trump himself until he was sworn in.

Four months into Trump’s second term, World Liberty announced that its USD1 digital currency had been selected for a gigantic transaction. Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, was selling a stake to a United Arab Emirates state-owned fund called MGX. The $2bn price could have been paid in dollars. Instead, Binance would receive 2m freshly minted USD1.

Because USD1 is a stablecoin – crypto pegged to a real currency – World Liberty holds one dollar for each token it issues. It makes money from the interest and investment returns on these reserves. The $2bn jump in the reserves from this one deal could end up making the Trumps’ company tens of millions annually.

Around the same time, Binance’s stratospherically wealthy Chinese-born founder, Changpeng Zhao, asked Trump for something. He had served a four-month sentence in a California prison for violating US laws against money laundering. Prosecutors said that allowing sanctioned Russians, al-Qaida and assorted others to move illicit funds over Binance – which paid a $4bn fine – had caused “significant harm to US national security”.

Upon his release, CZ, as he is known, went home to the UAE. His criminal record looked like an obstacle to re-establishing Binance in the US. He applied for a pardon in May, just as it emerged that the $2bn deal was done with USD1. On 23 October, Zhao posted on X: “Deeply grateful for today’s pardon and to President Trump for upholding America’s commitment to fairness, innovation, and justice.”

David Sacks is a South African-American who chairs the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.  Cecilia Kang et al. at NYT:

Since January, Mr. Sacks, 53, has occupied one of the most advantageous moonlighting roles in the federal government, influencing policy for Silicon Valley in Washington while simultaneously working in Silicon Valley as an investor. Among his actions as the White House’s artificial intelligence and crypto czar:

• Mr. Sacks has offered astonishing White House access to his tech industry compatriots and pushed to eliminate government obstacles facing A.I. companies. That has set up giants like Nvidia to reap an estimate of as much as $200 billion in new sales.
• Mr. Sacks has recommended A.I. policies that have sometimes run counter to national security recommendations, alarming some of his White House colleagues and raising questions about his priorities.
• Mr. Sacks has positioned himself to personally benefit. He has 708 tech investments, including at least 449 stakes in companies with ties to artificial intelligence that could be aided directly or indirectly by his policies, according to a New York Times analysis of his financial disclosures.
• His public filings designate 438 of his tech investments as software or hardware companies, even though the firms promote themselves as A.I. enterprises, offer A.I. services or have A.I. in their names, The Times found.
• Mr. Sacks has raised the profile of his weekly podcast, “All-In,” through his government role, and expanded its business.

 

Selling Out Ukraine

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.

Drew Hinshaw et al. at WSJ:

Three powerful businessmen—two Americans and a Russian—hunched over a laptop in Miami Beach last month, ostensibly to draw up a plan to end Russia’s long and deadly war with Ukraine.

But the full scope of their project went much further, according to people familiar with the talks. They were privately charting a path to bring Russia’s $2 trillion economy in from the cold—with American businesses first in line to beat European competitors to the dividends.

At his waterfront estate, billionaire developer-turned-special envoy Steve Witkoff was hosting Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign-wealth fund and Vladimir Putin’s handpicked negotiator, who had largely shaped the document they were revising on the screen. Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, had arrived from his nearby home on an island known as the “Billionaire Bunker.”

Dmitriev was pushing a plan for U.S. companies to tap the roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank assets, frozen in Europe, for U.S.-Russian investment projects and a U.S.-led reconstruction of Ukraine. U.S. and Russian companies could join to exploit the vast mineral wealth in the Arctic. There were no limits to what two longtime adversaries could achieve, Dmitriev had argued for months: Their rival space industries, which raced one another during the Cold War, could even pursue a joint mission to Mars with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

For the Kremlin, the Miami talks were the culmination of a strategy, hatched before Trump’s inauguration, to bypass the traditional U.S. national security apparatus and convince the administration to view Russia not as a military threat but as a land of bountiful opportunity, according to Western security officials. By dangling multibillion-dollar rare-earth and energy deals, Moscow could reshape the economic map of Europe—while driving a wedge between America and its traditional allies.

Pete Hegseth and War Crimes

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration has been full of ominous developments.

Alex Horton and Ellen Nakashima at WP:

The longer the U.S. surveillance aircraft followed the boat, the more confident intelligence analysts watching from command centers became that the 11 people on board were ferrying drugs.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a spoken directive, according to two people with direct knowledge of the operation. “The order was to kill everybody,” one of them said.

A missile screamed off the Trinidad coast, striking the vessel and igniting a blaze from bow to stern. For minutes, commanders watched the boat burning on a live drone feed. As the smoke cleared, they got a jolt: Two survivors were clinging to the smoldering wreck.

The Special Operations commander overseeing the Sept. 2 attack — the opening salvo in the Trump administration’s war on suspected drug traffickers in the Western Hemisphere — ordered a second strike to comply with Hegseth’s instructions, two people familiar with the matter said. The two men were blown apart in the water.

Hegseth’s order, which has not been previously reported, adds another dimension to the campaign against suspected drug traffickers. Some current and former U.S. officials and law-of-war experts have said that the Pentagon’s lethal campaign — which has killed more than 80 people to date — is unlawful and may expose those most directly involved to future prosecution.

The alleged traffickers pose no imminent threat of attack against the United States and are not, as the Trump administration has tried to argue, in an “armed conflict” with the U.S., these officials and experts say. Because there is no legitimate war between the two sides, killing any of the men in the boats “amounts to murder,” said Todd Huntley, a former military lawyer who advised Special Operations forces for seven years at the height of the U.S. counterterrorism campaign.

Even if the U.S. were at war with the traffickers, an order to kill all the boat’s occupants if they were no longer able to fight “would in essence be an order to show no quarter, which would be a war crime,” said Huntley, now director of the national security law program at Georgetown Law.

Trump has a history of condoning war crimes.  Steve Benen reported in 2018:

On his first full day as president, Donald Trump traveled to CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, spoke in front of a memorial wall, and delivered one of the strangest presidential speeches I’ve ever seen.

Trump attacked journalists, lied about the size of his inaugural crowd, assured those in attendance about how impressed he was with his intellect, reflected on the number of instances in which he appeared on the cover of Time magazine, and speculated about taking Iraqi oil.

But the Washington Post reported this week on something else that happened when the president visited the CIA and “was ushered up to the agency’s drone operations floor.”

Trump urged the CIA to start arming its drones in Syria. “If you can do it in 10 days, get it done,” he said, according to two former officials familiar with the meeting.

Later, when the agency’s head of drone operations explained that the CIA had developed special munitions to limit civilian casualties, the president seemed unimpressed. Watching a previously recorded strike in which the agency held off on firing until the target had wandered away from a house with his family inside, Trump asked, “Why did you wait?” one participant in the meeting recalled.

For those with a moral compass, such a comment is obviously jarring, especially coming from a president. But for those who’ve covered Trump’s public positions, this isn’t too surprising.

In December 2015, near the height of the race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination, then-candidate Trump endorsed torturing detainees — even “if it doesn’t work” in producing valuable intelligence — simply because he saw it as a worthwhile thing to do.

He added soon after, “[T]he other thing is with the terrorists, you have to take out their families. When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. They care about their lives, don’t kid yourself. But they say they don’t care about their lives. You have to take out their families.”

Trump Is Not Well

 Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments. Last year, Trump was already showing signs of cognitive decline. It's getting worse.

 Daniel Orton and Robert Birsel at Newsweek:

Tim Walz hit back at Donald Trump after the president used an ableist slur to attack him during a late-night online tirade against immigration.

Trump called the Minnesota governor “seriously retarded,” a term widely regarded as derogatory toward people with intellectual disabilities. Walz responded by calling for the release of the president’s recent MRI results, drawing renewed attention to questions surrounding the 79-year-old commander-in-chief's health.

Trump's health has drawn increased scrutiny in recent months after he was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, a common condition in older adults. He also confirmed receiving an MRI at Walter Reed in October as part of what the White House described as a routine physical, though Trump told reporters he had “no idea what they analyzed.”

"Release the MRI results," Walz wrote, sharing a screenshot on X of Trump's lengthy Truth Social post in which he slammed immigration, attacked Walz and Somali-American Democratic Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, and pushed unsubstantiated claims about Somali immigrants.

 Katie Rogers and Dylan Freedman at NYT:

According to a Times analysis of the official presidential schedules in a database maintained by Roll Call, Mr. Trump’s first official event starts later in the day. In 2017, the first year of his first term, Mr. Trump’s scheduled events started at 10:31 a.m. on average. By contrast, Mr. Trump in his second term has started scheduled events in the afternoon on average, at 12:08 p.m. His events end on average at around the same time as they did during the first year of his first term, shortly after 5 p.m.

The number of Mr. Trump’s total official appearances has decreased by 39 percent. In 2017, Mr. Trump held 1,688 official events between Jan. 20 and Nov. 25 of that year. For that same time period this year, Mr. Trump has appeared in 1,029 official events.

Mr. Trump still regularly comes down to the Oval Office after 11 a.m., according to a person familiar with his schedule. This routine is a holdover from his first term: After he complained about being overscheduled in the mornings, Mr. Trump kept so-called executive time hours in the White House residence before he headed downstairs for work.

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Mr. Trump has long rambled in his speeches; during his 2024 campaign and in his second term, the meandering has often been noticeable. He can veer off script to share stories that are sometimes riddled with untruths, such as his false claim that his uncle, John Trump, had taught the domestic terrorist Ted Kaczynski at M.I.T.

“I said, ‘What kind of a student was he, Uncle John, Dr. John Trump?’ He said, ‘What kind of a student?’ And then he said, ‘seriously good.’ He said he’d go around correcting everybody,” Mr. Trump said during a speech in Pennsylvania in July. “But it didn’t work out too well for him, didn’t work out too well, but it’s interesting in life. But I will say this that we have the greatest brains, we have the greatest power and we are going to have more electric.”

A rational president would ignore the story, confident that it would soon fade away.  Instead, Trump spotlighted it. 

Marina Dunbar at The Guardian:

Donald Trump lashed out on Wednesday against a New York Times reporter, calling her “ugly inside and out” in his latest personal insult against female members of the media after last week calling another “piggy”.

In a Truth Social post, Trump criticized the newspaper for an article suggesting he was running low on energy in his 80th year, insisting he had “never worked so hard in my life”.

Trump specifically targeted one of the authors. “The writer of the story, Katie Rogers, who is assigned to write only bad things about me, is a third rate reporter who is ugly, both inside and out,” he wrote.

Rumors surrounding the president’s health have been circulating for months, with more questions raised after Trump admitted to having an MRI last month. He claimed it was part of a standard physical and would not reveal what body part the test had analyzed.

 

Foreign MAGA

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. The second Trump administration is has been full of ominous developments.  For one, we have learned that foreign interference in American politics has not gone away.

Marina Dunbar at The Guardian:

Many of the most influential personalities in the “Make America great again” (Maga) movement on X are based outside of the US, including Russia, Nigeria and India, a new transparency feature on the social media site has revealed.

The new tool, called “about this account”, became available on Friday to users of the Elon Musk-owned platform. It allows anyone to see where an account is located, when it joined the platform, how often its username has been changed, and how the X app was downloaded.

As soon as the update was rolled out, users found numerous Maga and rightwing influencers who presented themselves as patriotic Americans were operating from other countries.

“This is easily one of the greatest days on this platform,” wrote the liberal influencer Harry Sisson. “Seeing all of these MAGA accounts get exposed as foreign actors trying to destroy the United States is a complete vindication of Democrats, like myself and many on here, who have been warning about this.”

The account MAGANationX, with nearly 400,000 followers and a bio reading “Patriot Voice for We The People”, is actually operated from eastern Europe, according to the Daily Beast. Another popular profile, IvankaNews, an Ivanka Trump fan account with about 1 million followers that frequently posts about illegal immigration, Islam and support for Trump, was revealed to be based in Nigeria.

Another user also uncovered several additional cases. Dark Maga, a smaller account with roughly 15,000 followers, is run from Thailand. MAGA Scope, which has more than 51,000 followers, operates out of Nigeria, while MAGA Beacon is based in south Asia.

Miles Klee at Rolling Stone:

A user with the handle @AmericanGuyX, for example, who represents themselves as a “Florida guy,” regularly posted in support of Trump and Musk while denouncing figures including George Soros and fear-mongering about the U.S. national debt. Their location, according to X, is India. On Saturday, Trump shared an X post from @TRUMP_ARMY_ about a Supreme Court ruling on Truth Social; that person, who has more than half a million followers, also lives in India. And a now-suspended account with the handle @American and a profile image of a bald eagle superimposed on an American flag traced back to Pakistan.

Other accounts featuring MAGA slogans, American flag emojis, references to the American Revolution, and Trump-favored words such as “patriot” were found to be run by users in places including Nigeria, Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. Quite a few have substantial followings and at some point alluded to voting for Trump in 2024 despite evidently lacking U.S. citizenship. There was evidence, too, that more of these inauthentic profiles are springing up every day and often rebranding to gain a wider audience. The MAGA account “Charlie’s Voice Rising,” or @CharlieK_news, which uses an avatar of slain right-wing activist Charlie Kirk and has nearly 200,000 followers, was created less than a year ago by someone in Eastern Europe, and the handle has been changed multiple times.

 

ACA Subsidies

Our new book is The Comeback: The 2024 Elections and American Politics. It includes a chapter on congressional and state elections.  Trump was a liability for Republicans in the 2025 off-year elections.  He could be a bigger liability in the 2026 midterm -- and not just because of his low approval ratings.

Congressional Republicans are in a tough spot.  On the one hand, anything bearing Obama's name is toxic to GOP activists. On the other hand, the general public now favors the Affordable Care Act by nearly a two-to-one margin. And about half of those who receive ACA premium subsidies are either self-employed or work for a small business — exactly the kind of voters that marginal Republicans need in a general election. 

Robert Jimison at NYT:

Representative Jen Kiggans, Republican of Virginia, once called for eliminating the Affordable Care Act.

Representative Mike Lawler, Republican of New York, has repeatedly called it “a disaster.”

But the two are part of a small group of G.O.P. members of Congress — most of them facing tough re-election races next year in competitive districts — who have broken with their party to push for a temporary extension of a crucial piece of the law: subsidies, currently slated to expire at the end of the year, to help Americans afford their premiums.

Their eagerness to vote for an extension, which was Democrats’ main demand in the weekslong government shutdown fight, underscores how entrenched the health care law has become, even among Republicans who once fought to kill it. And it helps explain why President Trump, who has long railed against the law, commonly called Obamacare, is said to be weighing such a move as he and his party toil to address affordability issues that could be a major liability for them going into the midterm elections.

Letting the subsidies lapse would put a heavy financial burden on millions of voters just as the G.O.P. is grasping to keep control of Congress.